Florida
The Scenario:
If Alex Sink or another Democrat were to capture the Governorship, I can easily see them letting a judge draw the maps-they can seldom get anything worse than what the map currently is and they would almost certainly gain more seats then they would in an incumbent protection map. I also assume that Florida only gains a single seat, rather than the 2 some are predicting (opinion is widely split on that).
So, here goes. I know my FL-4 will spark a lot of controversy.
North Florida (Districts 1-6)
FL-1: A very conservative Pensacola based district and a cakewalk for Jeff Miller.
FL-2: A modestly more Democratic friendly version of the 2nd which Allen Boyd should have no problem with.
FL-3: Ander Crenshaw should love this heavily GOP district with its base in the Jacksonville suburbs and exurbs.
FL-4: Replaces the old Florida 3rd; entirely within Duval County and is 33.8% African American, compared to the 49% it is now. Would it trigger a lawsuit? Almost certainly. However, there is absolutely no way to draw a black majority district in North and Central Florida. I spent four hours trying and got something that was like 48% black and looked like an octopus. Since the Supreme Court has ruled in Bartlett v. Strickland that a district must be 50%+ minority to be protected under the VRA (unless I’m misreading the decision). Thus, I went for compactness while keeping the minority heavy parts of Duval together. It should be winnable for a black Democrat, as they would be favored in the primary, and I can’t imagine the GOP winning a 34% African American urban district (when you add in Latinos, minorities are 38% of the district).
FL-5: Similar to the current 5th, though more North and Central Florida than exurban Tampa. Should elect Ginny Brown-Waite or another GOPer easily.
FL-6: One of the more interesting new districts created out of parts of the current 3rd, 6th, and 7th. Its basically a battle of bases, with the GOP being strong in the St. Johns part of the district and Dems having all of Alachua County. The Marion County portion though, gives this district a slight GOP lean, though I can absolutely see a moderate to Blue Dog Dem winning this seat.
The I-4 Corridor
(FL-7 to FL-12 and FL-24)
FL-7: Suburban Orlando, taking in parts of Seminole and Osceola Counties. I would expect this to be something like a 53-47 Democratic district.
FL-8: Orlando’s downtown core and some suburbs. Allen Greyson will love it.
FL-9: Suburban Greater Tampa. Probably would elect Gus Bilrakis again.
FL-10: A significantly more Democratic version of the current district. If Charlie Justice gets elected next year, he’ll love this district.
FL-11: Tampa’s downtown core and some of suburban Hillsborough County. Probably less Dem than its current configuration but still plenty safe for Kathy Castor.
FL-12: A Hillsborough-Polk Tampa suburban district that looks like a tossup.
FL-24: A Volusia/Seminole based district that would elect Suzanne Kosmas.
South Central Florida
FL-13: A Sarasota County based seats with large hunks of Charlotte and Manatee Counties. Leans to likely Republican.
FL-14: The leftovers district. A Republican lock, though I’m pretty sure it has no incumbent.
FL-15: Republican Brevard and Indian River Counties plus the leftovers of Osceola. Bill Posey, with his wingnuttia could make it extremely interesting.
FL-16: Democratic St. Lucie plus marginally Republican Martin and a big chunk of north Palm Beach County. On paper, its Democratic leaning.
FL-17: Fort Myers based. Connie Mack is safe.
Southeast Florida (West Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade)
FL-18: A Democratic South Palm Beach County seat. My guess is Robert Wexler runs here.
FL-19: A much safer district for Ron Klein.
FL-20: A Dem friendly district for Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
FL-21: A black majority district for Kendrick Meek’s successor, though I had to strip out some African American precients to get Alcee Hastings over the 50% hump in the 23rd.
FL-22: Cubans in Miami and down the coast, but wholly in Dade County. Possibly the safest of the 3 Cuban districts now.
FL-23: Basically the same as is now.
FL-25: Hialeah based, Joe Garcia stands a much better chance in this version of the district.
FL-26: What’s left of Dade and Collier plus the Florida Keys.
Results:
Dems hold everything they have now and probably pick up the Florida 7th, at least one of the Cuban Districts (I’d bet on the 25th), and maybe the 12th. A Dem will carry my new 10th as well.
The 6th is a tough GOP hold, and Bilrakis could have trouble in the new 9th. Posey is capable of turning a relatively safe 15th into a battleground.
I’d love for it to start as you have it, but snake down and take in the worst parts of CD-5–basically one huge North Florida vote sink. I actually think if the cards line up right, we could see the 13th fall into our hands. It depends on how much of the vote is Sarasota. Enough and we could have it, but quite literally everything around it seems hostile. Are there no chunks of adjacent territory with even a swingy lean?
I’m trying to figure out whether my part of Lakeland would be in the 12th or 14th.
is a difference of maybe six house seats. I could easily see them redistricting a couple of our people out and drawing the new seat for themselves if McCollum wins. If Sink gets in, we are much more likely to get a map like you made and probably net a few seats.
Probably no other single governor race next year will be as important with regards to redistricting (unless we somehow are able to knock Perry off in Texas assuming he beats Hutchison).
A lot of Florida Dems are supporting Fair Districts Florida, a group pushing a ballot initiative to redistrict the state using a bipartisan panel. So we can still get this with out Sink winning (we should still focus on her, but it’s nice to have options).
visit it at http://www.fairdistrictsflorida.org
If youre in Florida, you can download the petitions currently being circulated direct from the website. Also, you can kick ’em a few bucks direct on their website – I have!
http://www.fairdistrictsflorida.org
Especially what you did with 18 and 19 for Klein and Wexler – equalizing those is great. If you move the Manatee part of the 13th more along the coast, that might make the 13th more Democratic. Kosmas should be good in her new district (maybe a bit Seminole heavy but you got rid of Brevard), and I love the donut of the 7th, which should be Dem leaning since the part of Osceola is the Democratic part.
competitive, Jacksonville politics are very racially divided, Obama lost 50-49 and that was considered a very good performance.
As for Gainesville, it occured to me to include it in FL-02 in order to anchor down at least one Democratic in north Florida. A Gainesville-Tallahasse based district would lean fairly Democratic, especially by taking out Bay County.
Very nice work though on the urban areas.
by taking only the south portion of Jacksonvile, Daytona Beach, and parts of Orlanda and northern Osceola.
Are completely ridiculous. If you can draw a minority-majority district out of an urban setting or its surrounding suburban area that’s fairly compact, then great. Otherwise, states shouldn’t have to draw these crazy districts that shapewise make no sense whatsoever. Voters in Jacksonville shouldn’t be paired with voters in Orlando. There’s enough population in Florida to ensure that shouldn’t happen.
As it is, the current FL-3 is essentially a sinkhole for democratic votes, leaving the rest of northern and central Florida with Republican PVIs. The three districts we have outside of FL-3 are FL-2 (R+6), FL-24 (R+4), & FL-8 (R+2). If Corrine Brown’s district was split up, we’d be able to spread our votes around more efficiently. Ditto for other states with stupid-looking districts (North Carolina’s 12th and 3rd districts come to mind)
Aside from menhen and pbratt’s MI maps, this is the best big-state map I’ve seen. Major props for making FL-23 way more sensible while still preserving its majority-minority status.
I, too, agree that Brown’s district deserves the axe. Not only will it rid us of one of most worthless caucus members, it could help boost our chances in the surrounding districts. Furthermore, having been to many parts of Florida, I can tell you that people in Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Orlando have very different interests that would not be served by having the same congressperson.