Cross posted from daily Kos
I’m starting up this series again. I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.
It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.
Going alphabetically, we start with ALABAMA
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
and my previous diaries.
Alabama has 7 CDs, 4 are Republican, 3 are Democratic
District: AL-01
Location : the southwest part of AL, bordering MS, FL, and the Gulf of Mexico. It has a weird finger taken out of it, that is part of AL-07.
Representative Jo Bonner (R)
VoteView ranking 310/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2002
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 2008 39-61
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent had no money; in 2004, though, Judy Belk spent $400K.
Current opponents No Democrat, but he has a primary opponent.
Demographics A low-income ($34K, rank = 345), rural (36%, rank = 100), conservative district
Assessment This is a longshot
District: AL-02
Location The southeast quarter of AL, bordering FL and GA, and including Montgomery
Representative Bobby Bright (D)
VoteView rating NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 50-50; 1,700 votes of 485,000 cast
2006 margin NA
2004 margin 71-28
Obama margin 2008 39-61
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Jay Love (R), who was 2008 opp.
Demographics Similar to the 1st, but poorer (med income = $32K, rank = 378) and more rural (50%, rank = 48th). This was one of the highest percentages of Blacks of any Republican represented district (only 7 had more Blacks
Assessment This was open in 2008, as Terry Everitt retired.
District: AL-03
Location Most of the eastern part of AL, bordering GA, including Talladega and Tuskegee
Representative Mike Rogers
VoteView rating 299/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2002
2008 margin 53-47
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 2008 43-56
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Notes on opponents
Current opponents Joshua Segall (site in development, clearly)
Demographics Like the 1st and 2nd, but even more so. Median income is $31K (rank = 400); 32.2% Black (rank = 41st).
Assessment This district is trending more and more D. Black turnout will be key; Rogers did 3 points better than McCain.
District: AL-04
Location Northern AL, but south of AL-05, runs from MS to GA.
Representative Robert Aderholt (R)
VoteView rating 311/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 1996
2008 margin 75-25 over Nicholas Sparks
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 2008 23-76
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents Nicholas Sparks, the 2008 opponent
Demographics The second most rural district in the country (73.5%) (only KY-05 is more rural).
Assessment Another long shot
District: AL-05
Location The northernmost part of AL, running from MS to GA, and borders TN. Includes Huntsville and Decautur
Representative Parker Griffith (D)
VoteView rating NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents At least two Repubs running
Demographics Not quite as poor as other AL districts.
Assessment The former rep, Cramer was one of the most conservative Dems in the House. But there are only 13 districts that have Democratic representatives and are this Republican at the national level. It’s great that we kept the seat in 2008, after he retired; it can’t be called safe, but if we won it when it was open ….
District: AL-06
Location More or less the middle of the state, but shaped like a V to allow AL-07 to include as many Blacks as possible
Representative Spencer Bacchus (R) May retire
VoteView rating 333/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 2008 23-76
Bush margin 2004 78-22
Notes on opponents none
Current opponents none
Demographics One of the most Republican district per Cook PVI, only UT-03 is more so, and only TX-11, TX-13 and TX-19 are equally so
Assessment If we have to skip a race, this is probably the one
District: AL-07
Location Mostly in western AL, bordering MS, this district has two ‘fingers’ to include more Blacks.
Representative Artur Davis Retiring to run for governor
VoteView rating NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 2008 61-39
Bush margin 2004 35-64
Notes on opponents None close
Current opponents A whole lot of Democrats running; safe Democratic seat.
Demographics The majority Black district in AL, it’s got the 5th highest percentage of Blacks of any district in the USA (61.7%) (more so are IL-01, IL-02, LA-02 and MS-02) and the 5th lowest median income ($27K) (lower are CA-31, KY-05, NY-16 and WV-03)
Assessment With Davis retiring, maybe we can get a real progressive here.
is AL-02. I would rate Bright’s chances of re-election as only 50-50 at this early stage. He will have the advantage of incumbency but the disadvantage of a likely drop-off in black turnout. If he can survive this one, he should be there as long as he wants. The other important election will be the Dem. primary in the safe D 7th district. If a progressive emerges, and Bright survives, we will see a net improvement in the delegation. Griffith should win in the 5th, and the other districts are safe for the incumbent or the incumbent’s party.
First, thanks for coming back. I loved last cycle’s series. The highlight was one of the Hawaii districts having a majority Asian population.
McCain got 56% as you stated. Looks like Rogers ran 3 points behind McCain rather than 9 points ahead. He could be in some trouble. The district seems to be trending Democratic.
The Republican has announced he isn’t seeking a rematch after losing to Bobby Bright in 2008.
The only announced Republican right now (and one that the party establishment seems to be coalescing around) is Martha Roby, a city councilwoman in Montgomery.
How do you come up with 447 total districts? I assume it is including the delegates from territories, but are there twelve of them? Let’s see: DC, PR, USVI, Guam, Am. Samoa, and that’s all I can think of…