I’m tired of seeing map after map of Minnesota making bad maps, or assuming the state when is going to lose a congressional district when, in fact, it is not. Here’s my take on a Democratic gerrymander, which is what I am expecting.
Because my computer was too stupid to even fit the north district in single screen, truly ridiculous, let me give you the North district in two shots:
I was concerned with long range chances in this seat. The outer Minneapolis suburbs are becoming increasingly far right and not only that but it is increasingly taking in more and more of them as the Democratic areas like St. Louis County. So I completely removed it from the suburbs, who are different culturally and politically, and shifted it entirely to the north, taking in mostly rural and Democratic territories.
Here’s the first part of the two central Minnesota districts. I decided that if Collin Peterson wants to be one of the most hardcore conservative Democrats then he might as well represent a district more conservative than his current, 50-49 McCain district. So I did that, while keeping Bachman’s district conservative and Republican/
This is the most important section here, MN-01 plus the Minneapolis districts.
I shifted Kline’s district to take in Democratic trending Washington county. Then south I kept only the most close-in and Democratic Dakota County suburbs, plus the very inner Anoka county suburbs, the areas that lean Democratic and are almost in Minneapolis. But to seal the districts Democratic lean I anchored in a liberal block of voters in northern Ramsey county, including communities such as Little Canada and Shoreview. The end goal is to create a Democratic leaning and trending swing district that will kick out conservative lockstep John Kline who has been totally weak and ineffecient for this district and has not proven himself to be a great campaigner.
I shifted Keith Ellison’s district. He’s in the yellow. Its a lot less Democratic but he’ll be fine. It still contains most of heavily Democratic North Minneapolis, Plymouth, and Brooklyn Park. Beyond that in a 63-35 Obama county their can’t too many Republican areas and a district based completely it would be fine. I split the Democratic anchors.
So then comes the 7th, designed to eliminate Erik Paulsen beyond a doubt. He’s a strong conservative representing a moderate district because Democrats didn’t nominate Bonoff, (who was much more liberal than Madia, a casualty of netroots kneejerk reaction against any “establishment” candidate). This is the man who helped shut down the state government because Pawlenty didn’t get what he wanted.
He can’t win this district. It contains about 60% of Minneapolis, and other Democratic areas like St. Louis Park, Richfield, Edina, and Bloomington, and Minnentonka if I’m not mistaken and it contains areas getting more Democratic every year.
Now my sixth is the only district I’m not completely happy with because of its strange shape and its sprawling nature. Its anchored in Roseville and St. Paul, liberal bastions, but then it spills out taking in most of swingish to conservative Dakota county, a small sliver of Scott County, and most of the northern portion of Democratic leaning Rice county.
Tim Walz’s district remains the same, except significantly more Democrat. Winona on other very Democratic areas like Blue Earth, plus Olmstead, which is swingish but slowly going Democratic, kicking and screaming at a federal level. Locally Democrats have already picked up numerous Senate and state house seats there so the writing is on the wall.
Back briefly to the 1st, it is now very Democratic, I don’t really care to elaborate. St. Louis anchors it, and other Democratic areas like Koochining and Itasea nad Beltrami and Carlton county anchor and instead of taking in conservative suburbs that are trending Republican, it moves west taking in a variety of marginal to Democratic leaning rural areas.
The second is a tough area. I kept the big block of Democratic counties, starting with Grant and ending at Yellow Medicine, that form Peterson’s base of sorts, the Beet valley or whatever its called. I just realized I put his home of Becker county into the first. A slight shift would fix that, taking out the Bekcer and Otter Tail counties portions from te 1st and instead taking in Cass county out of the 3rd and taking out part of Sherburne County from Peterson. Its conservative, I wanted that. This is a guy whose right up their with Jim Marshall, Parker Griffith, and Walter Minnick yet he has a swing district. Not right. Also, I apologize for the bit of mess in Rice county, an accident.
Beyond that, you want numbers? I don’t have exact numbers but I’ve looked at the district and I can give you a good guess.
District 1: 57-43 Obama
District 2: 54-45 McCain
District 3: 57-42 McCain
District 4: 54-45 Obama
District 5: 59-40 Obama
District 6: 60-39 Obama
District 7: 61-38 Obama
District 8: 55-44 Obama
Those are just guestimates, and not the best, but those were a little out of my leauge.
Good day, please give me your opinions and thoughts and please vote in the poll so I can see how many people have read this.
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oh well/
Its so exurban focused, the GOP in that district would certainly rally around someone and knock Peterson out. I bet roughly half of that district is new to him (maybe more) and all the new parts are quite Republican.
Like I’ve said in all the other redistrictings for MN, just dont screw with either of the northern rural MN districts, they’ll keep electing their incumbents, one is already safe D and the other is swing, why bother changing them, etc. Like especially with an 8 seat map, I have no idea why you’d make it so much harder for Peterson to get elected to shore up already safe Oberstar. Everyone who is redistricting Minnesota does this and I just dont get it.
since it’s filled with Republicans
It probably won’t, since migration to AZ and FL and immigration to TX has dropped off considerably since ’07 and each state could end up swiping one fewer from the north than expected. However, forecasts are notoriously volatile, and Minnesota’s 8th district is on the bubble. I think it’s realistic to plan for either 7 or 8 seats.
That district is already safe and there’s a deep bench there to cover once Obserstar retires (my money is on Duluth mayor Don Ness). Sure Peterson is a pain in the rear, but any politico out of that district is going to be heavily backed by big agribusiness. Redistricting it to be more conservative is foolish – we’ll just lose a seat when he retires, thus eliminating any of the good work we’d get from taking out Paulson. And I’m not so sure about the way the suburbs are cracked – there’s no compactness there.