Quinnipiac University (6/26-7/1, registered voters, 4/28-5/4 in parens):
Lee Fisher (D): 37 (42)
Rob Portman (R): 33 (31)
Undecided: 26 (26)Lee Fisher (D): 36
Tom Ganley (R): 30
Undecided: 31Jennifer Brunner (D): 35 (40)
Rob Portman (R): 34 (32)
Undecided: 29 (27)Jennifer Brunner (D): 35
Tom Ganley (R): 31
Undecided: 31
(MoE: ±2.8%)
While they don’t show nearly as big a decline as they did with their Ohio gubernatorial numbers, Quinnipiac also has Democrats slipping in the Senate race. I’m prepared to believe that Democratic fortunes are really heading southward, but I do have to wonder if Q is overstating things. In May, they had Obama’s job approval at 62-31 in the Buckeye State. Now he’s at 49-44. Did his numbers really collapse so dramatically here, despite only a slight downtick nationwide? Perhaps, but I’d like to see confirmation elsewhere.
Anyhow, Quinnipiac has also started testing Tom Ganley’s name – he’s the wealthy car dealer who recently made his entrace into the race official. Portman has a 33-10 lead on Ganley in the primary. On the Dem side, Lee Fisher’s lead over Jennifer Brunner has shrunk to 24-21 (from 31-26), with a lot more folks undecided than previously. With the primary still ages away, I don’t think we can read a lot into these numbers.
RaceTracker: OH-Sen
Jennifer Brunner’s numbers against Ganley should be 35, not 25.
And yeah, these Ohio numbers and samples seem a little off in the context of everything. Obama has an only 49-44 approval rating? But if anything, we should remember that we have to fight for this seat, and that it won’t be the next Santorum or Domenici kind of seat.
Not saying they’re true, just saying I can see them.
Obama’s numbers could be going down, because macroeconomics is a counterintuitive subject. Obama’s picked the basically right way to get us out of this*- stabilize the financial sector, ramp up gov’t spending to create jobs and get capital into the system- but it doesn’t make sense to your average voter- running up debt in times of economic hardship, cleaning up the mess Wall Street made is the opposite of how most people would solve their OWN economic issues. So until they work, I can understand some heavy skepticism.
And if THAT’S the case, then of course other Dems are going to get their numbers tamped down a little, too.
By 2010, it might be working, and we’ll be fine. Or the jury might still be out, and we’ll have to rely on GOTV, organization, and the candidates- and we can certainly do it. If it fails, we’ll be sunk, but we knew that already, didn’t we?
*- As distinguished from “picked the right way to make sure this doesn’t happen again”- because without massive financial re-regulation, the other shoe will always be a-hangin’ in the air- and “doing enough”, because I’m open to arguments that the stimulus wasn’t enough.
No surprise a continuing bad economy is taking its toll on a party in power. We’re at 9.5% unemployment, which not only is bad but appears even worse simply because we got used to 4% under Clinton. (No one remembers that 6.5% under Reagan was called “properity” at the time, and the Reagan folks insisted that was “full employment.”)
But it’s July 2009, not July 2010.
I’ve always thought the economy would rebound ENOUGH by late summer 2010 that the environment will revert to “neutral,” and fundamentals will decide the races.
I still think that.
We’re in power, we have a lot of major agenda in front of us, and with a decent health care reform law, a decent carbon emissions control law, and a reviving economy, we’re set. I just hope our Congress and President don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good whereby our own more doctrinaire liberals sabotage our efforts. Do whatever it takes to get 60 Senators, even if that means giving up sometimes on Ben Nelson and Landrieu in order to make a deal with Snowe and Collins. The public will be supportive, we can fix imperfections later, and the country is better off than it was.
Time is on our side.
And if we just don’t get stuff done and the economy stays in the tank, well we’ll have to pay a price, but we’ll still hold both chambers.
Undecided to tell us much of anything. However when everything shakes out I continue to believe this should be a win.
I had been out of work since the election ended (Nov. 5 was the end for me).
I start grad school this fall and as of yesterday got hired for an on campus job. Only one called my back of over fifteen I applied for (including a job at the local Democratic party in Denton, TX).
So, from where I am standing in Texas things are starting to get better.
All I need is access to the college’s gym, and I’m golden. 🙂
No way in hell Bush’s free trade guy gets elected in Ohio of all places.
The election does not take place until November 2010. Polls that take place before the primaries are useless. The voters are not even paying attention. Too much can and will happen between now and the election. The main things are the economy and health care. So ease up on the panic.