I’m starting up this series again. I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.
It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.
Previous diaries:
Today: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware
Summary:
Florida has 25 representatives: 15 Republicans and 10 Democrats
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: FL-01
Location The westernmost part of the panhandle, bordering AL, the Gulf of Mexico and including Pensacola map
Representative Jeff Miller (R) Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 429
First elected 2001
2008 margin 70-30 over Jim Bryan
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 77-22
Obama margin 32-67
Bush margin 2004 72-29
Current opponents Jim Bryan is running again, he looks like a good guy, but this is a tough district for Democrats.
Demographics Most veterans of any district (21.7%), and the 13th most Republican district per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot
District: FL-02
Location The middle of the panhandle, bordering AL, GA and the Gulf of Mexico, and including Tallahassee map
Representative Allen Boyd (D)
VoteView ranking 205
First elected 1996
2008 margin 62-38 over Mike Mulligan
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 54-44
Current opponents There is a primary challenge from Al Lawson daily kos diary, and then William Fisher.
Demographics 90th poorest district (median income = $35K), 60th most veterans (15.3%)
Assessment This part of FL is more like Alabama or Georgia than it is like Miami; Tallahasse (which is in the eastern part of this district) is 484 miles from Miami and 228 from Atlanta. Boyd has shown he can win; most Democrats could not.
District: FL-03
Location The ‘joint’ where the panhandle meets the main part of the state, including (through some gerrymandering) both parts of Jacksonville and Gainesville. This district has been the subject of lots of contoversy – it borders the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 24th. Here:
District %Black %Bush 04
03 49.3 35
04 13.5 69
05 4.5 58
06 11.9 61
07 8.8 57
24 6.3 55
and the borders of the 3rd are pretty tortured. map
Representative Corrine Brown (D)
VoteView ranking 173.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 73-26
Bush margin 2004 35-65
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Jacob Hoeschst
Demographics 21st poorest district (median income = $30K), 41st most Blacks (49.3%)
Assessment Safe.
District: FL-04
Location The eastern part of the panhandle, from Tallahassee suburbs to the Atlantic, bordering GA map
Representative Ander Crenshaw (R)
First elected 2000
2008 margin 65-35 over Jim McGovern
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 69-31
Current opponents No confirmed Democrats. There is a primary challenge.
Demographics 30th most veterans (17.1%); 33rd most Republican district
Assessment Long shot
District: FL-05
Location On the Gulf coast, just south of the panhandle map
Representative Ginny Brown-Waite (R)
VoteView ranking 334
First elected 2002
2008 margin 61-39 over John Russell
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents At least 3 Democrats: Thomas Doolan (no website, only a facebook page); Jim Picillo (site in need of technical help! His quote signs are showing like diamonds, for instance), and David Werder, a perennial candidate, but definitely odd.
Demographics 12th most veterans (21.3%)
Assessment Long shot
District: FL-06
Location A boomerang shaped district in the middle of north Florida map
Representative Cliff Stearns (R)
VoteView ranking 392
First elected 1988
2008 margin 61-39 over Tim Cunha
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Cunha is running again (no website yet)
Demographics 13th most veterans (18.3%)
Assessment Long shot
District: FL-07 map
Location Atlantic coast of northern FL, from north of St. Augustine to Daytona Beach
Representative John Mica (R)
VoteView ranking 367
First elected 1992
2008 margin 62-38 over Faye Armitage
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Peter Silva (no website)
Demographics 15th most veterans (17.6%)
Assessment Long shot; Silva’s facebook page does not ooze professionalism, and Mica has won easily.
District: FL-08
Location More or less the middle of FL, including Orlando map
Representative Alan Grayson (D)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48 over Ric Keller
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-47
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Todd Long
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This is a swing district, going for Bush twice before going for Obama; it’s far from safe, but Grayson did just oust Kel
District: FL-09
Location A weirdly shaped district (Oh Gerry! Gerry!) it runs along the Gulf Coast, circles around the 10th CD, and continues, plus it runs east into Central FL, then south – it’s shaped sort of like the number 5, or more like a backwards Z rotated 90 degrees. map
Representative Gus Bilirakis (R) Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 294
First elected 2006
2008 margin 63-36 over Bill Mitchell
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin NA (but it was his father who held the seat)
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents No confirmed Democrats, but there is a primary challenge
Demographics 18th most veterans (17.2%)
Assessment Long shot
District: FL-10
Location The Gulf Coast, near Tampa Bay (across the Bay from Tampa, north of St. Pete), but excluding a narrow strip that is FL-09. map
Representative Bill Young (R) Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 289
First elected 1970
2008 margin 61-39 over Bob Hackworth
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents If Young runs there is a primary challenge and then Hackworth is running again.
Demographics 13th most veterans (18.2%)
Assessment Young is gradually getting vulnerable. If we get some breaks, it’s possible we could win here; still, Hackworth lost to Young in 2008. If Young retires, it’s a new ballgame, he’s been in congress a long time and he’s nearing 80 …
District: FL-11
Location Tampa and St. Petersburg map
Representative Kathy Castor Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 98.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 70-30 over Eddie Adams
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Scott Keller and Steven Sandford.
Demographics 55th most Blacks (27.4%)
Assessment Probably safe.
District: FL-12
Location Interior Florida, east of Tampa Bay map
Representative Adam Putnam (R) Quitting to run for statewide office
VoteView ranking NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Several Republicans are running, more are thinking about it (see the wiki; only one confirmed Demorat: Lori Edwards (website is clearly a work in progress, needs issues pages and so on).
Demographics 23rd most veterans (17%)
Assessment This is a fairly Republican seat; maybe the Repubs will damage each other in a primary?
District: FL-13
Location Gulf coast, from Bradenton to Englewood, interior to Arcadia map
Representative Vern Buchanan (R) Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 292
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-38 over Christine Jennings
2006 margin 369 votes out of 237,000
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents : None confirmed
Demographics 9th most veterans (19.2%)
Assessment Buchanan is vulnerable, if a good candidate runs
District: FL-14
Location Gulf coast, including Naples and Ft. Myers map
Representative Connie Mack (R)
VoteView ranking 398
First elected 2004
2008 margin 59-25 over Robert Neeld
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Robert Neeld is running again (site is just a placeholder)
Demographics 6th most veterans (19.8%)
Assessment Neeld has failed three times, long shot.
District: FL-15
Location Atlantic coast, from Cocoa to Vero Beach map
Representative Bill Posey (R) Not confirmed
VoteView ranking NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 53*42 over Stephen Blythe
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 8th most veterans (19.4%)
Assessment This is a Republican district, but this is a Democratic year. With an open seat….And no Republicans have declared yet… who knows?
District: FL-16
Location An oddly shaped district, it goes from the Gulf to the Atlantic; it’s narrow at the Gulf (just about Port Charlotte and nothing else), widens in the middle of the state, swings around Lake Okeechobee, then narrows, then widens again at the Atlantic running from Ft. Pierce to Jupiter, then jogging inland to Wellington map
Representative Tom Rooney (R)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 60-40 over Tim Mahoney
2006 margin 50-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 11th most veterans (18.9%)
Assessment Vulnerable, but we need a good candidate
District: FL-17
Location Just off the Atlantic (by a mile or so) including North Miami Beach, North Miami, and Hollywood map
Representative Kendrick Meek (D) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView ranking NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 87-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents About a dozen Democrats seem to be running or considering running (see the WIKI.
Demographics 20th most Blacks (55.2%) and very few veterans (7.2%). 29th poorest district (median income = $30K). The most Democratic district in the South
Assessment Whichever Democrat wins the primary will win the general. This is one of the most Democratic districts in the country, and Obama got more here than in all but 12 CDs.
District: FL-18
Location Miami and a narrow strip along the Atlantic north and south of there map
Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
VoteView ranking 258
First elected 1989
2008 margin 58-42 over Annette Tadeo
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 51-49
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 16th most Latinos (62.7%)
Assessment Several southern FL seats have gone from solidly Republican to vulnerable in the last decade; partly this is the danger of gerrymandering, partly it’s because the Cuban population is changing. I thought this one would be closer in 2008, but it’s still possible.
District: FL-19
Location Slightly off the Atlantic from near West Palm Beach to near Pompano Beach map
Representative Robert Wexler (D)
VoteView ranking 50
First elected 1996
2008 margin 66-27 over Ed Lynch
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unoppposed
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 34-66
Current opponents There’s a primary, then either Lynch or Josue Larose
Demographics 28th most veterans (16.6%)
Assessment Safe
District: FL-20
Location Another weirdly shaped district. What is it shaped like? Well, part of it is like a number 7, with the top running from the Atlantic west to Weston, and the bottom on the Atlantic. Then, atop the 7, it goes back east to the Atlantic again then north a little… ohh… go look at the map
Representative Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D) Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 83
First elected 2004 (D)
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unoppsed
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 36-64
Current opponents Either Brian Reilly or Dennis Lamb
Demographics Not unusual on what I track, but one of the highest concentrations of Jews of any district.
Assessment Safe
District: FL-21
Location This one is shaped like a ?. Folks, to appreciate southern FL districting, you really have to look at a map. Gerry would be proud of these guys, but the Republicans may have overdone it, as they now have several vulnerable seats. map
Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)
VoteView ranking 281.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 58-42 over Raul Martinez
2006 margin 59-41
2004 margin 73-27 (against a Libertarian)
Obama margin 49-51
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 8th most Latinos (69.7%)
Assessment Vulnerable with the right opponent, I thought this would be closer in 2008.
District: FL-22
Location One of the strangest shaped districts in the country. Go look. It’s south Florida along the Atlantic….more or less. map
Representative Ron Klein (D)
VoteView ranking 203.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 55-45 over Alan West
2006 margin 51-47
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-48
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents There’s a primary and then Allen West is running again.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment West does not appear to be a serious threat, but others might be.
District: FL-23
Location The eastern and southern coasts of Lake Okeechobee map
Representative Alcee Hastings (D) Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 57.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 82-18 over Marion Thorpe
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 83-17
Bush margin 2004 24-76
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Bernard Sansariq
Demographics 43rd fewest Whites (29.4%), 23rd most Blacks (51.2%), 41st poorest (median income = $31K)
Assessment Safe
District: FL-24
Location Atlantic coast, towards the north. map
Representative Suzanne Kosmas (D)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-51
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents At least 4 Republicans, see wiki
Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)
Assessment As a freshman in a swing district, Kosmas is vulnerable, but, so far, there are no opponents.
District: FL-25
Location Southern end of Florida map
Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
VoteView ranking 281.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 53-47 over Joe Garcia
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 17th most Latinos (62.4%), 16th fewest veterans (6%)
Assessment Vulnerable to the right opponent.
must be because they have lots of old people.
Florida is barely above sea level, and it keeps getting pounded by hurricanes. We really need to go after the Representatives that aren’t taking global warming seriously.
But why do you think 2010 is a Democratic year? I don’t think we know one way or the other yet. Let’s see how the economy is closer to election time.
Hackworth may be running again (although I’m not sure that is confirmed), but almost without question the Democratic nominee will be Charlie Justice, a state Senator and former state rep, and without a doubt the most serious candidate Democrats have put up against Young in years.
http://www.charliejustice.com/
Justice has already announced, and I suspect he may be trying to get in early to have a leg up if Young retires, as well as to put some pressure on Young to retire rather than face a tough race.
Also, expect both Alan Grayson (FL-8) and Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) to face very strong challenges from Republicans.
In the 8th, the Republicans have a very deep bench and they will go all out to take down Grayson in his first re-election campaign – possible candidates include State House Speaker Larry Cretul (R) , Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty (R), Ex-State Rep., Andy Gardiner (R), State Sen. Stephen Precourt (R) and State Rep. Dan Webster (R).
In the 24th, Suzanne Kosmas already has one announced Republican candidate — Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel, and it looks increasingly likely that State Rep Sandy Adams will also jump into the race. In a district that voted for McCain, and where the incumbent Republican was hurt by corruption issues in 2008, Kosmas is going to have to fight hard to hold the seat.
To just call FL-1 a ‘long shot’. Its a district that went for McCain by 35 and Bush by 43 in 04. That 04 margin is greater than any Dem-held Bush 04 districts. And its just simple a very, very Republican district.
All in all it is good work that you did and and I really enjoyed reading it. cant wait to read more.
You need to use the wiki links for 2010 races. eg FL-24 has no less than 4 declared candidates.
BTW I agree with you about FL-15 but as a freshman Posey is almost certain to run again. 🙂