Congressional races 2010: Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho

Today: Georgia, Hawaii and Idaho

Previous diaries



Summary: GA has 13 representatives, 7 R and 6 D; only GA-12, now D, seems vulnerable

        HI has 2 representatives, both D, both safe

        ID has 2 representatives, 1 D and 1 R, the D (Minnick) is vulnerable



Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: GA-01

Location Southeastern GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic, including Valdosta and Hinesville map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Jack Kingston (R)

VoteView rank 433

First elected  1992

2008 margin 67-33 over Bill Gillespie

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 63rd most Blacks (24.9%) and 54th most veterans (15.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-02

Location Southwestern GA, bordering FL and AL and including Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Sanford Bishop (D)

VoteView rank 180

First elected  1992

2008 margin 69-31 over Lee Farrell

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 23rd poorest district (median income = $30K), 37th most Blacks (47.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-03

Location Western GA, about in the middle of the state map

Cook PVI R + 19

Representative Lynn Westmoreland (R)

VoteView rank  437

First elected  2004

2008 margin 66-34 over Stephen Camp

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 76-24

Obama margin 35-65

Bush margin 2004 70-29

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 18th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-04

Location Eastern and northern suburbs of Atlanta map

Cook PVI D + 24

Representative Hank Johnson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 45

First elected  2006

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 79-20

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 31st most Blacks (52.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-05

Location Atlanta and some suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 26

Representative John Lewis (D)

VoteView rank  14

First elected  1986

2008 margin unopposed

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 80-20

Bush margin 2004 26-74

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 18th most Blacks (55.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-06

Location Northern central GA map

Cook PVI R + 19

Representative Tom Price (R)

VoteView rank  417.5

First elected  2004

2008 margin 69-31 over Bill Jones

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 34-65

Bush margin 2004 70-29

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 9th wealthiest (median income = $72K), and highest in the South

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-07

Location Northern central GA map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative John Linder (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 424.5

First elected  1992

2008 margin 62-38 over Doug Heckman

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 39-60

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 37th wealthiest (med income = $60K)

Assessment  Long shot

District: GA-08

Location Central GA including Macon and Moultrie map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Jim Marshall (D) May run for statewide office; but filed to run for this seat

VoteView rank 237

First elected  2002

2008 margin 57-43 over Rick Goddard

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 78th most rural (43.4%), 41st most Blacks (32.4%).

Assessment Marshall is a DINO, and I don’t use that term lightly.  Is it worth it? I don’t really know. Would a more liberal Democrat have a chance in this district?  It partly depends on turnout; but, even with nearly  in 3 people being Black, Obama lost here.    Marshall is vulnerable, in any  case

District: GA-09

Location Northwestern GA, bordering TN, AL, and NC map

Cook PVI R + 28

Representative Nathan Deal (R) Retiring

VoteView rank NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 23-75

Bush margin 2004 77-23

Current opponents Several Republicans (see wiki)

Demographics 38th most rural (52.7%), 4th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Whichever Republican wins will surely win in November

District: GA-10

Location The northern part of eastern GA, mostly bordering SC (but also NC) and including Macon and Augusta map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Paul Broun (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 447

First elected  2007

2008 margin 61-39 over Bobby Saxon

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 50th most rural (49.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-11

Location Northern part of western GA, bordering AL, including Rome and Marietta map

Cook PVI R + 20

Representative Phil Gingrey (R)

VoteView rank 421

First elected  2002

2008 margin 68-32 over Bud Gammon

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 57-43 (there was a redistricting)

Obama margin 33-66

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 18th most Republican (per Cook PVI)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-12

Location Eastern GA, bordering SC, including Savannah and Augusta map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative John Barrow (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 238

First elected  2004

2008 margin 66-34 over John Stone

2006 margin less than 1,000 votes, of 142,000

2004 margin 52-48

Obama margin 55-40

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents Wayne Mosley and Carl Smith, maybe others

Demographics 30th most Blacks (44.5%) and 33rd most people in poverty (21.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable

District: GA-13

Location An oddly shaped district, mostly west of Atlanta map

Cook PVI D + 15

Representative David Scott (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 183

First elected  2002

2008 margin 69-31 over Deborah Honeycutt

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 72-28

Bush margin 2004 40-60

Current opponents Honeycutt again

Demographics 30th most Blacks (41%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: HI-01

Location Honolulu and immediate environs map

Cook PVI D + 11

Representative Neil Abercrombie (D) Retiring

VoteView rank NA

First elected  1990

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 70-28

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Current opponents For the Democrats, Ed Case is definitely running, others are considering (see the wiki). For the Repubs, Charles Djou is confirmed.  

Demographics The most nonWhite, nonLatinos, nonBlacks of any district, HI-01 is 53.6% Asian

Assessment It’s open, so not maybe not completely safe, but looks good.

District: HI-02

Location All of HI except Honolulu map

Cook PVI D + 14

Representative Mazie Hirono (D)

VoteView rank 45

First elected  2006

2008 margin 76-20 over Roger Evans

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 73-25

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents Roger Evans

Demographics the second most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks, HI-02 is 28% Asian

Assessment Safe

District: ID-01

Location Western ID, bordering OR, WA and MT including Boise map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Walt Minnick (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 51-49 over Bill Sali

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 36-62

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Current opponents Bill Sali, who lost in 2008, is running; so are Vaughn Ward, Ken Roberts, and Allen Salzberg.  Others may as well.

Demographics Tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Our best hope is if Sali wins the primary; this is strongly Republican territory, but Sali is too way out there, even for Idaho.  Probably our most vulnerable seat.

District: ID-02

Location Eastern ID, bordering MT and WY map

Cook PVI  R + 17

Representative Mike Simpson Not confirmed

VoteView rank 277

First elected  1998

2008 margin 71-20 over Debbie Holmes

2006 margin 62-34

2004 margin 71-29

Obama margin 36-61

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Hansen raised $160K, to Sampson’s $570K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

7 thoughts on “Congressional races 2010: Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho”

  1. Sonja Sleeper (R) is running against David Scott.  And the increasing diversification of GA-07 has got to worry Linder.

  2. Although this state seems overwhelmingly Republican at the Presidential level, only 7 (not 8)of the 13 House seats are held by Republicans.

    Georgia has more black residents than any other state including the far more populous California.  Mississippi has the highest percentahe of black residents.

    The Atlanta suburbs alone now account for half the state’s population (yes, that does not include Atlanta but it does include about half the population of Fulton County).

    Bill Clinton carried Georgia in 1992 but not in 1996.  He managed, however, to flip Florida in 1996 for a net gain.

    Any state with a strong connection to Martin Luther King, FDR (Warm Springs) and Jimmy Carter can’t be entirely forgotten.  The problem is the suburbs, particularly the newer ones.  The history of suburbs indicates that after 20 years of Republicans underfunding the roads and the schools, Democrats regain control (the electorate has also become more diverse).  

  3. Summary: GA has 13 representatives, 8 R and 5 D; only GA-12, now D, seems vulnerable

    GA’s delegation is 7 R and 6 D. Perhaps you were thinking ahead to what 2012 will look like (8 R and 6 D I would say if we lose the GOV race, potentially 7-7 if we win the GOV race and make a dent in the state house).

  4. is probably the most heavily divided state in the union politically.  You have districts of PVI +20 on both sides, huge R districts in the north and in the Atlanta suburbs, and huge D districts in Atlanta itself.  I’m not sure there will be any competitive races in this state in 2010, unless the prevailing political wind turns against the Dems in which case GA-2 and GA-12 would become vulnerable.  Really I think the Democrats are doing well to have a nearly split delegation of 7-6.  The difference in the House of Representatives right now is that the Republicans have been totally shut out of the Dem power region in the northeast, while the Democrats have been holding their own in the Republicans’ backyard of the southeast.  We hold majorities in VA, NC, AR, TN, and MS.  GA and AL we’re one seat away from taking the lead.  

    Now the problem I see with Georgia is this.  There are 2 districts of D+1 in this state that we currently hold.  If the Dems fail to win the Governors’ mansion next year, we’re probably going to lose both of those seats in redistricting.  Jim Marshall would also become more vulnerable than he is now.  If the Dems win the governorship, I think they can create another seat out of metro Atlanta and dilute GA-4 and GA-5 a little bit to do so.  The VRA might complicate things though, because of the enormous racial divide in this state.  

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