Previous diaries
Summary:
MD has 8 reps: 1 R, 7 D
MA has 10 reps: all D
MI has 15 reps: 8 D, 7 R
Possibly vulnerable:
MD-01 (D)
MI-02 (R) (a little)
MI-07 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: MD-01
Location Eastern MD, bordering DE; plus most of the shore of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Frank Kratovil (D)
VoteView 242
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-48 over Andy Harris (less than 3,000 voes)
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Andy Harris, who lost in 2008, but narrowly; possibly othersNot unusual on what I track
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Per Crisitunity’s index the 3rd most vulnerable Democrat.
District: MD-02
Location The western shore of the Chesapeake, plus odd bits farther west map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 177
First elected 2002
2008 margin 72-25 over Richard Matthews
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 60-39
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MD-03
Location An odd shaped district, including Annapolis map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative John Sarbanes Not confirmed
VoteView 102.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 70-30 over Thomas Harris
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Kevin Carney
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MD-04
Location Another odd shaped district, including area to the north and east of DC map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Donna Edwards (D)
VoteView 19
First elected 2008
2008 margin 86-13 over Peter James
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 85-14
Bush margin 2004 78-21
Current opponents Possible primary, no confirmed candidates.
Demographics 37th fewest Whites, 13th most Blacks
Assessment Safe
District: MD-05
Location Mostly this is the southern part of MD to the west of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Steny Hoyer (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1981
2008 margin 74-24 over Collins Bailey
2006 margin 83-16 (over a Green party candidate)
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 28th highest median income; 28th fewest in poverty
Assessment Safe
District: MD-06
Location The westernmost part of MD, a thin wedge between PA, WV, and VA map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Roscoe Bartlett (R)
VoteView 328
First elected 1992
2008 margin 58-39 over Jennifer Daugherty
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 67-29
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Andrew Duck and Casey Clark; Duck looks much more progressive to me, but Clark has raised an impressive $100K.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Clark is outraising not only Duck, but Bartlett as well. That’s promising. Bartlett is 83 years old.
District: MD-07
Location Baltimore and points west map
Cook PVI D + 25
Representative Elijah Cummings (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 77
First elected 1996
2008 margin 80-19 over Michael Hargadon
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 79-20
Bush margin 2004 26-73
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 31st most Blacks
Assessment Safe.
District: MD-08
Location North and west of DC, bordering VA map
Cook PVI D + 21
Representative Chris van Hollen (D)
VoteView 105.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 75-22 over Steve Hudson
2006 margin 77-22
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 73-25
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents Steve Hudson
Demographics 17th highest median income
Assessment Safe
District: MA-01
Location The largest CD in MA, more than half the state, in the west. Bordering NH, VT, NY and CT map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative John Olver
VoteView 11.5
First elected 1991
2008 margin 73-27 over Nate Bech
2006 margin 76-23 (against an independent)
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 35-63
Current opponents Nate Bech
Demographics 60th fewest Black (1.6%), 71st most Democratic per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe
District: MA-02
Location Southern MA, bordering CT and RI, from Springfield to Milford map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Richard Neal (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents Jay Fleitman
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MA-03
Location MA-03 runs from the middle of the state southeast to Somerset, and borders RI map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jim McGovern (D)
VoteView 35.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MA-04
Location Runs from New Bedford, on the coast, northwest and then northeast to Brookline and Newton, suburbs of Boston map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Barney Frank (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 27
First elected 1980
2008 margin 68-25 over Earl Sholley
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 78-22 (against an independent)
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 33-65
Current opponents Earl Sholley
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $55K), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 55th most Democratic per Cook
Assessment Safe
District: MA-05
Location Northern MA, bordering NH, including Lowell and Lawrence map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Niki Tsongas (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 93
First elected 2007
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Current opponents William Bunker
Demographics 64th fewest Blacks (1.9%)
Assessment Safe
District: MA-06
Location The northeast corner of MA, bordering NH and the Atlantic, including Lynn, Salem, and Gloucester. map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative John Tierney (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 32.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 70-30 over Richard Baker
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 59-41
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 50th highest income (median = $58K), 71st fewest Blacks (1.9%), 12th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MA-07
Location Northern and western suburbs of Boston map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative Edward Markey (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 30.5
First elected 1976
2008 margin 76-24 over John Cunningham
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 74-22
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 55th highest income (median = $56K), 54th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MA-08
Location Part of Boston, plus Cambridge, Somerville, and Chelsea map
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Michael Capuano (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 30.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 91-9 (the 9 went to a Socialist)
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 86-14
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 13th fewest veterans (5.5%), 50th lowest income (median = $39K), 88th fewest Whites (48.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MA-09
Location Part of Boston, plus southern suburbs including Braintree and Brockton map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Stephen Lynch (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2001
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 78-22
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 61-39
Bush margin 2004 36-63
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 60th highest income (median = $55K), 70th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MA-10
Location Eastern MA, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, bordering the Atlantic, including Quincy and Hyannis map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Bill Delahunt (D)
VoteView 39.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 64-29
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 32nd fewest people in poverty (5.9%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%) and 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Safe
District: MI-01
Location The UP of MI, and the northern most part of the lower part map.
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Bart Stupak (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 160.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 65-35 over Tom Casperson
2006 margin 69-28
2004 margin 53-46
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 52-45
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 5th most rural (66.6%), 24th most veterans (16.9%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 30th fewest Blacks (1.0%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Fairly safe; this is a swing district, Stupak seems to fit it.
District: MI-02
Cook PVI R + 7
Location Western MI, bordering Lake Michigan map.
Representative Pete Hoekstra (R) Retiring
VoteView 359
First elected 1992
2008 margin 62-35 over Fred Johnson
2006 margin 66-32
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents At least two Republicans (see the Wiki) but no Democrats so far.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This is a fairly Republican district, but it’s open. The right candidate has a chance.
District: MI-03
Location A bit to the southwest of the center of the state, including Grand Rapids map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Vernon Ehlers (R)
VoteView 268
First elected 1993
2008 margin 61-35 over Henry Sanchez
2006 margin 63-35
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Not impossible – it’ll be tough, but Obama ran even here.
District: MI-04
Location Central MI map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Dave Camp (R)
VoteView 327
First elected 1996
2008 margin 62-36 over Andrew Concannon
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 64-38
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents
Demographics 20th most rural (58.6%)
Assessment Camp seems popular, but the district is moving to the Democrats….
District: MI-05
Location Flint and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Dale Kildee (D)
VoteView 149
First elected 1976
2008 margin 70-27 over Matt Sawicki
2006 margin 73-25
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MI-06
Location Southwestern MI, bordering IN and Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Frederick Upton (R)
VoteView 283
First elected 1986
2008 margin 59-39 over Don Cooney
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 82nd most rural (41.7%)
Assessment Upton, a relatively moderate Republican, seems popular, but, again, the district is moving to the Democrats
District: MI-07
Location Central part of southern MI, bordering IN and OH, including Battle Creek map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Mark Schauer (D) Not confirmed
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-46 over Tim Wahlberg
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Tim Wahlberg
Demographics 68th most rural (46%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Crisitunity ranks it the 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat.
District: MI-08
Location Lansing and surrounding area map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Mike Rogers (R) May run for governor
VoteView 335
First elected 2000
2008 margin 56-40 over Robert Alexander
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin 61-37
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Another increasingly D district, and, if Rogers retires, it’s possible.
District: MI-09
Location Northern and western suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Gary Peters (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-43 over Joe Knollenberg
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Paul Welday
Demographics 23rd highest income (median = $65K), 26th fewest in poverty (5.4%), 88th most veterans (10.6%)
Assessment
District: MI-10
Location Eastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Candice Miller (R)
VoteView 284
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-31 over Robert Dennison
2006 margin 66-31
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 35th fewest in poverty (6%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)
Assessment long shot
District: MI-11
Location Far western suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Thaddeus McCotter (R)
VoteView 285
First elected 2002
2008 margin 51-45 over Joseph Larkin
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 57-41
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Spencer ,
Edward Kriewall
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $59K), 12th fewest in poverty (4.3%)
Assessment
District: MI-12
Location Northern suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Sander Levin (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1982
2008 margin 72-24 over Bert Coppie
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MI-13
Location Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 74-19 over Edward Gubicks
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 78-18
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 19-81
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 37th lowest income (median = $31K), 19th most in poverty (24.4%), 9th most Blacks (60.5%), 41st fewest Whites (28.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment safe
District: MI-14
Location Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative John Conyers (D)
VoteView 25.5
First elected 1964
2008 margin 92-4 over minor party candidates
2006 margin 85-15
2004 margin 84-16
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 50th fewest Whites (32.1%), 35th lowest income (median = $36K), 17th most Blacks (61.1%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MI-15
Location Southern suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative John Dingell (D)
VoteView 115.5
First elected 1955 (longest serving House member)
2008 margin 71-25 over John Lynch
2006 margin 88% against minor parties
2004 margin 71-27
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
This district is not a safe Republican seat. Thad McCotter is always considered the most vulnerable Michigan Republican but he has yet to get a well-funded challenger. His percentage dips every cycle. McCotter won just 51-45 despite an opponent (Joseph Larkin) who spent only $28 K vs. $1,058 K by McCotter.
The real question here is whether the Democrats or Bush will take the blame for the auto industry’s problems. Too bad some more of the bank money was not available for a more generous package. Politically it would have helped a lot.
is a key state for the Democrats to play offense in, along with California, Minnesota, and Illinois, to name a few. The good news is if Schauer can survive his rematch with Walberg in MI-7, we won’t be losing any seats. As for our offensive opportunities, MI-2 can be had with a moderate/somewhat conservative Dem candidate. That district took a hard swing to the left in 2008, and despite the PVI of R+7, Obama only lost by 3 points. MI-8 is a great pickup opportunity if Mike Rogers ends up running for governor. It voted for Obama by 7 points, right in line with the rest of the nation. And of course MI-11 should be ripe for the taking if we can get a decent candidate finally.
Another thing to consider is that the current map is very favorable for Republicans, lots of R+0, R+2, R+3 districts. If we can take control of the state Senate and keep the governors’ mansion, neither of which is outlandish considering the Repubs have a tenuous 21-17 lead in the Senate and the state leans Dem at the statewide level, we’re going to wipe out a lot of Rep seats in redistricting. Even a compromise map will probably wipe out at least 1 or 2 republican representatives.
to run for governor and will almost certainly be reelected. Hopefully this gerrymandered district will be redrawn more favorably for Democrats by 2012. Ehlers, Camp, Upton, and whatever Republican replaces Pete Hoekstra should all be elected or reelected without problems. Candice Miller in MI-10 would like to run for governor, but she’ll bide her time–too many other Rep heavyweights already in. Thaddeus McCotter in MI-11 should be history unless the Dems nominate another nobody to run against him. Tim Walberg is a world-class wingnut, and although there are a lot of conservatives in MI-07, I think they have had their fill of him–Schauer will be back. Dale Kildee may retire, in which case John Gleason should be a shoo-in. Everybody else will be back easily, unless Conyers and/or Dingell have health issues or decide to retire, but their districts should also be safe Dem.