With New York available as of yesterday, I took no time to do a map losing one district. My findings are that they’re probably going to have to axe one of the upstate districts, and I chose NY-23.
NY-01 through NY-17 – These districts didn’t change much, if any. All safe D, except for NY-01, which leans D, NY-03, which leans R, and NY-13, which is a swing district.
NY-18 (purple, Westchester-based district; Nita Lowey – D) – Picks up Republican Putnam County, which should be balanced out by Westchester.
NY-19 (ugly green Dutchess/Orange district; John Hall – D) – Loses Putnam and is basically all of Orange and Dutchess now, making it slightly more Democratic.
NY-20 (brown, Scott Murphy – D) – Chopped off the southern part of the district and added parts of NY-23. A couple points more Democratic now.
NY-21 (pink, Albany-based district; Paul Tonko – D) – Slightly more Republican due to some Republican parts of NY-23 added, but still safe D.
NY-22 (dark red, Maurice Hinchey – D) – Lost quite a bit of Dem territory, but still Dem-leaning.
NY-23 (pink, backwards-C shaped district, Eric Massa – D, formerly NY-29) – Cut out a lot of the Republican parts and added Tompkins, Seneca, and more of Monroe. Probably won by Obama now.
NY-24 (dark purple, Mike Arcuri – D) – Still a 50-50 district. If Scozzafava wins in NY-23, she’ll be in this district, so Arcuri’s going to have to learn how to campaign better.
NY-25 (pale green in the middle of the state, Dan Maffei – D) – Picked up Cortland and part of Chenango. Probably a little more R now, but still leans D.
NY-26 (grey, Chris Lee – R) – Safe R district! Pretty much every Republican county in Western NY.
NY-27 (dark pink, Erie-based; Brian Higgins – D) – Didn’t change much.
NY-28 (green, Niagra/Orleans/Monroe/Erie district, Louise Slaughter – D) – Nor this one.
So, there you have it. If the Democrats pick up NY-23 this year, it’s going to be hard for them to preserve the district, because NY-29 has a lot of Republican territory that would have to be split up.
Why did you leave the current 28th district as is? Don’t you realize that the whole point of that district is to pack as many democrats as posible into a single district? It’s pvi is D+15, which means it could be made significantly less blue and still be a 100% safe Democratic district. Not to mention, it makes no sense connecting parts of Buffalo with parts of Rochester.
I’d like to go back to the 1970s plan of Staten Island + Lower Manhattan vs. today’s Staten Island + part of Brooklyn.
McMahon is safe, but we should strengthen the district in case he decides to leave someday.
Nice job Johnny. I’ve just been working with NY since I put the data up there yesterday. I’ve just uploaded a software update that should improve a couple of things, such as making the block lines thinner so you can see the tiny ones in NYC. I’ll post a diary shortly.
And from what I could see, I agree that it’s upstate that has to lose a seat. Not surprising, really, since it’s rural areas that are not growing.
the most Republican areas of NY 23 and 26.It will take a long thin line and some touch-point contiguity (perhaps not possible with Dave’s app), but I believe it’s possible to make the Republicans eat the upstate loss.
I had thought about making NY-23 a dumping ground for Republican votes in the upper upstate to shore up Arcuri and Murphy. However, if we win that seat in the special election or next year, I don’t see the wisdom in that. Come to think of it, I’m not sure I see the wisdom in dismantling a presidentially Democratic district while keeping a presidentially Republican district (NY-26). So, I’m thinking Lee should be targetted instead. We have some room to play with in Higgins’ and Slaughter’s districts.
1. NY-3 should be made more Democratic.
2. I would strengthen NY-13 by attaching it to Manhattan as someone suggested.
3. I agree with others to eliminate NY-26, but the problem is that it results in three or four more districts that a Repub can win in a good year.
I noticed one thing in playing with this, it is awfully hard to really gerrymander a state where you have a 26-3 edge!
that had we seen this map 5 years ago, there would have been 6 safe Republican districts upstate. NY-19, NY-20, NY-23, NY-24, NY-25, and NY-26 would have been considered safe Repub.
Every single one of these Upstate districts should be Democratic. The Buffalo-to-Rochester earmuffs is a blatant Republican gerrymander, meant to pack all the Democratic areas into one district. I broke it up. The Massa district is given more of Monroe County. Obama probably won it.
Whoever has the more liberal voting record in the next 4 years can have Ithaca.
that slashes Peter King’s district into several pieces and creates a new district in NYC.
How do I add pictures to a diary?