Well, ain’t this a surprise:
Douglas, midway through his fourth term, will hold a news conference at 11 a.m. in the Governor’s Ceremonial Office in the Statehouse.
Multiple Republican sources have said the governor has decided against running for a fifth two-year term.
Douglas met with his staff and with cabinet members at 10 a.m. Member of the administration now are making their way to the Statehouse for the 11 a.m. announcement.
Douglas perfected the knack of survival in this deep blue liberal state, but he was already drawing some decent challengers — state Sen. Doug Racine (a former Lt. Governor who lost a gubernatorial race to Douglas by two points in 2002), state Sen. Susan Bartlett, and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz. In his announcement (which is streaming live right now), Douglas says that he won’t run for the Senate or the House in 2010, and he’ll serve out the remainder of his term.
Republicans will likely turn to the next biggest name on their bench to take over in 2010 — sitting Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, who, somewhat amazingly, has also managed to win his office on his own right since 2002.
UPDATE (Crisitunity): With this decision, Swing State Project is changing our rating of this race to “Tossup.” Given the state’s decidedly blue hue, “Lean Democratic” wouldn’t be out of the question, but Dubie is no slouch and we are intensely aware of the capacity of the Progressives in Vermont to screw things up for Democrats. If it’s clear that Anthony Pollina won’t get in the race this time, we will feel more confident about Dems’ chances.
RaceTracker Wiki: VT-Gov
As a native Vermonter, this is a godsend. I never cared much for Mr. Douglas – he has done nothing in his four terms as governor.
Now it’s time for the Dems to take back the seat.
Howard Dean might want his old job back.
Again great news for us.
as the last Republican governor in the Northeast.
glimmer of hope for the GOP in this race is the Progressive Party.
Brian Dubie is no Jim Douglas.
First, it is far from certain Dubie will run. He has been remarkably unengaged and uninterested in Vermont. Last year he was actively job hunting out of state, and he treats the Lt Governor’s job as a very part-time gig.
Brian Dubie has not been very involved in the governing of the state — despite being Lt Gov to a Gov of the same party, Dubie simply hasn’t been an integral part of the Governor’s team, and has had an extremely low profile on the critical fights around the state budget, economic issues, etc. Indeed, the only issue that Dubie has taken any leadership on was last year’s push for harsher sentences for sex offenders (after a particularly heinous local case) – and that resulted in extremely bipartisan legislation passing and being signed into law, so he can’t use it as a signature issue.
Secondly, despite winning several statewide elections, Dubie does not have the political profile Douglas did. He hasn’t been familiar to Vermonters for decades of holding office. Douglas carefully shaped an image (an inaccurate one) as a moderate Republican, while Dubie is widely perceived as being much more conservative than Douglas (especially on social issues).
Could there be a 3-way race that could complicate things? Perhaps, but the Dems and Progs in the state get that there is a huge problem with that, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some kind of fusion arrangement in 2010 (a Dem like Racine for Governor, a Prog like Pollina for Lt Gov).
People talk about the Pollina and the Progressives messing up past races for the Democrats — but the simple fact is that Douglas has won a majority of the vote in every election expect his first narrow victory over Racine (and in that election the 3rd candidate in the race wasn’t a Progressive, but rather an independent former Republican). We can’t blame a split opposition vote for Douglas’s victories.
While a Democratic victory here is far from a sure thing, at this point it is far more likely than any other outcome.
The point at which third-party candidates stop being spoilers is the point at which they start beating major-party candidates. Pollina did that last cycle; he’s no more a spoiler than Joe Lieberman was a spoiler for Alan Schlesinger.
Granted, the Dems have better candidates this cycle, but I would like to see Pollina run for Lt. Gov as a Progressive and win it now that Dubie isn’t running. He’s broken 20% in that race before even against Dubie.