Redistricting Minnesota: Tarryl Clark Edition

I’ve done MN before, but with recent estimates indicating that we’ll probably stay at 8 seats, I decided to make a map operating on the assumption that Tarryl Clark beats Michelle Bachmann in the 6th this year. Most of the districts stay roughly the same, but the 6th, 2nd and 3rd get real facelifts. More below the fold:

Greater MN Districts:

District 1: Tim Walz (DFL) Blue

Walz’s district keeps Rochester but loses Mankato and extends north into the Dakota County Suburbs. He actually lives in Mankato, so this could be extended into blue earth county if needed to pick up his house, but the district works better this way.



District 2: John Kline(R) Green

Kline will have the honor of being MN’s only safe GOP representative. I took in the GOP heavy parts of the 3rd, 6th and 3nd and jammed them together. Obama probably got only 45% or so here.

blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.

District 6: Hopefully Tarryl Clark (DFL) Blue-Green

If clark wins the 6th, we’d keep the St. Cloud part of the district, where she lives, and extend it around to include Washington county and more of Anoka County for a Suburban/exurban seat that should be a swing district of D+0 to R+2.



District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL) Gray

Peterson’s district added a bit considering its low population growth. It expanded to include some of the old 1st district and I had the 2nd take some of the more red parts of the old 7th, but the 8th took Beltrami county. Once Peterson retired this will lean red anyway, so it is how it is. He neither needs nor deserves protecting.

District 8: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Light Purple

The 8th essentially stays the same. It takes a little of the 7th to meet population.

Metro MN Districts:



District 3: Erik Paulson (R) Dark Purple

Paulson’s district gets significantly more blue with Eagan and Burnsvile added and western Hennepin county taken away. He’ll have a tough time surviving here.

District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) Red

The 4th grows a bit, but stays the same.

District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) Yellow

Loses the Anoka County parts and expands into Edina and more of Hennepin

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And that’s it! This should lead to a 7-1 map, at least until Peterson retires. Worst case scenario, DFL will always have 3 reps, and most likely 5, as I think Paulson will lose and Walz should hold that as should any Dem.

Input welcome!

16 thoughts on “Redistricting Minnesota: Tarryl Clark Edition”

  4. by the way…I’m a big fan of posts like this.  I believe one of the biggest things we should do is redistrict to more than just strength of district.  There are certain players out there like Clark or someone like Madia who lost to Paulsen who are viable candidates.  What the democrats should do is build districts around those people.  

  5. MN-04 and MN-05 are far too strong, while MN-03 and MN-06 are marginal, at best. All four of these districts need to have a combination of central city and suburban votes. For example, rather than having MN-03 be an arc around MN-05, why not split the two districts by an east-west line, roughly along I-394? Then we would certainly win both districts.

  6. I’m a big compactness guy, I really don’t want to split Minneapolis, though of course you could and make the 3rd a sure thing by giving it north Minneapolis.

  7. Take out all the burbs out of MN1, then shift MN3 counter clockwise to pick up those burbs, shift MN6 to pick up the burbs MN3 leaves behinds.

    Then pick up the lost territory for MN1 to have it include Mankato since Walz lives there and is a Dem city with a lot of population, gerrymander the connection so MN7 can pick-up Republican Steel, Dodge, and Waseca counties (maybe more if need be).

    And now MN6 has too much population so let MN2 pick up as much of Stearns county as possible (it gets RIDICULOUS red on the western portion of the district, particularly the northwest with Sauk City I believe it is) and then adjust as needed with maybe MN7 have to pick-up Le Seur or whatever and then do some minor trading to even out the population.

    You made an extremely solid MN3 but I think that come at the expense of MN6 which could be better and take in more suburbs.  It’s a problem Ive had with juggling with for-fun MN maps, how much do I want to strengthen MN3 at the expense of MN6 and vice versa, without splitting MInneapolis and St Paul, and MN1,7,8 at the expense of others in that same category.

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