12:10 AM: All 176 of 176 precincts are reporting; John Garamendi and David Harmer advance to the general. The final tally is Garamendi at 26%, Harmer at 21%, DeSaulnier at 18%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 8%.
11:40 PM: I think Representative Garamendi can start picking out his color of swearing-in tie. I did some more quick addition, adding up the percentage of all Dems and all Republicans. Democrats got 64% of the vote, Republicans 34%. That’s remarkably similar to the 2008 vote, where Obama got 65% and McCain got 33%. If there’s a wave of national discontent with Democrats, or a big shift in the electorate’s composition or levels of enthusiasm between the parties, we aren’t seeing it here in the 10th tonight.
11:30 PM: I did my own round of addition again, as the counties are far outpacing the SoS. Based on the four counties, we’re up to 139 of 176 (82%) reporting, with Garamendi at 26%, Harmer at 20%, DeSaulnier at 17%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 8%. 20 precincts are outstanding in Contra Costa, and 17 are left in Solano.
11:05 PM: While we wait for more updates, don’t forget there was also a special election in the basically safe seat of AD 51 in Los Angeles. With 100% in, it looks like we’ll be avoiding a general, as Democrat Steven Bradford broke 50%. He got 53%, to 19% for fellow Dem Gloria Gray and 17% for GOPer David Coffin.
10:55 PM: The SoS office is finally getting into the act. Their numbers are a pretty close match to ours: Garamendi at 27%, Harmer and DeSaulnier at 19%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 7%. Remember, though, that these are California rules, so even if DeSaulnier somehow edged out Harmer in the all-party primary, Harmer still goes to the general because the top D and R advance.
10:30 PM: I broke out the ol’ abacus, so now we can have some districtwide totals (despite the SoS still not having any info). With 102 of 170 (60%) reporting, including another Contra Costa batch, Garamendi and Harmer are well in control. Garamendi has 22,345 (27%), Harmer at 16,064 (19%), DeSaulnier at 13,827 (17%), Buchanan at 9,955 (12%), and Woods at 6,870 (8%).
10:20 PM: Now we have Contra Costa and Alameda with some details. In Contra Costa, 28 of 97 are reporting. Garamendi leads at 14,459 (26%), followed by DeSaulnier not far behind (here’s where his Senate district is) at 11,743 (21%), then Harmer at 10,589 (19%) and Buchanan at 6,540 (12%). In Alameda, with 22 of 34 reporting, Garamendi leads at 2,423 (32%), Harmer at 1,565 (21%), and Buchanan at 1,060 (14%). (Use the KCBS site. Still nothing happening at the SoS office.)
10:15 PM (Crisitunity): Well, things are starting to happen. Solano County is half in (23 of 40), and Garamendi leads with 4,573 votes, 29%. Harmer is 2nd with 2,912: 19%, followed by Woods with 2,383 (15%) and Buchanan at 1,921 (12%). All of Sacramento County has reported but it’s only a sliver of the district (5 precincts out of 176 total). Garamendi dominated, winning 51% (with only 179 votes?!?).
Since Gov. Schwarzenegger has ordered the results held for the 10th District special election until 10pm Pacific (1am Eastern), it looks like us open seats fans will be burning the midnight oil tonight. But that does give you a bit of extra time to squeeze in a last-minute prediction…
Garmendi- 29%
Harmer-23%
DeSauliner-16%
Woods-13%
Buchanan-12%
Others-7%
I haven’t been paying much attention due to work, but here’s my shot in the dark:
Garamendi – 30%
Harmer – 23%
DeSaulnier – 17%
Buchanan – 16%
Woods – 8%
Other – 6%
though that election will be pretty uneventful.
Why do you pick all the West Coasters? I gotta stay up late for them 🙁
Pick some east coasters! Those come in early!
I was not planning on staying up this late tonight. I looked up at the clock, saw “12:55,” and my thoughts went: “Geez, it’s late. Hey, now I can watch the CA-10 results come in!”
I think there’s something wrong with me, and I blame SSP.
Polls should be closing
Sacramento and Alameda are largely in.
It looks like Garamendi and Harmer are the clear leaders. Buchanan looked good in both places. DeSaulnier was way, way back in Alameda.
But both CC and Solano yet to go, and they are the bulk of the district, IIRC.
Solano:
http://www.co.solano.ca.us/civ…
and
Alameda:
http://www.acgov.org/rov/curre…
and
Sacramento:
http://www.eresults.saccounty….
GARAMENDI leading in all of them
blew out everybody in the 5 Sacramento precincts – he cleared 51% of the vote there!
Steven Bradford is almost at 50% with 54% of precincts reporting.
http://rrcc.co.la.ca.us/elect/…
I love her as a leader and a political figure, but Debra Bowen’s SoS office has always been a little bit glacial about releasing numbers, it seems to me.
I assume it has happened before, because this is not the first time I have had this thought.
Bradford’s at 51.73% with 77.85% reporting! Wooo!
I had never heard of this race before tonight. Now I will follow it as if my life depends on it.
I’m an addict.
He can book a flight to DC for the day after the general.
Night all.
It seems every race I ever work for, from Charlie Brown to Joan Buchanan ends in defeat
I guess there are some plus sides as Garamendi looks like he’ll make an excellent congressman and we have a better chance to hold an assembly seat if Joan is still the incumbent.
100% of the precincts are in and Bradford has won with 52.93%.
Garamendi has had a long and honorable political career in California and DC. He’ll be an excellent Representative. And he’ll bring a lot to the table about health reform and all insurance issues, having served as California’s Insurance Commissioner.
De Saulnier, Buchanan, and Woods would have been fine too. De Saulnier probably threw it away with a predictably meaningless campaign based on Garamendi’s residency. Who sold him on that as a central campaign plank? Has it ever worked for anyone? I think that Woods, the one national celebrity in the race, will probably live to run and perhaps win another day, if he wants to do so.
Another good night for Democrats. If this is what “energized” Republicans produce, let’s see more of that kind of energy. Maybe the whole angry, middle-aged white person narrative isn’t working as planned. I guess Huckabee’s Presidential campaign will be the test case.
All precincts are in per KCBS and it is Garamendi with 25,329 votes (26.0%) vs. Harmer with 19,932 (20.5%) in November. Garamendi won all four counties. De Saulnier (17.5%) got over 90% of his votes from Contra Costa and still lost it to Garamendi.
A total of 97,345 votes were cast for the special.
Dems – 64.54
Reps – 34.36
Other – 1.08
Surprisingly-low totals for the third party candidates. They usually draw 2-3% of the vote in these special elections.
for absolutely nailing this race.
SurveyUSA: G25, H20, D16, B12, W9
Final Result: G26, H21, D18, B12, W8
Pretty amazing accuracy for a multi-candidate race.