• CO-Sen: The Denver Post does some interesting digging into how former House speaker Andrew Romanoff wound up in the Senate Democratic primary against Michael Bennet after all. Governor Bill Ritter tried to give the Lt. Gov. spot to Romanoff after Barbara O’Brien left the position in January, but the deal collapsed, leaving Romanoff to decide on the primary instead this summer.
• IL-Sen: Chicago’s city treasurer, Stephanie Neely, has decided not to run in the Senate primary. However, Chicago’s inspector general David Hoffman seems to be taking tangible steps to get into the race, saying he’ll make a formal announcement after Labor Day.
• MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch picked up filing papers for the Senate special election in Massachusetts, indicating he’s likely to soon join Martha Coakley. Lynch, who represents a heavily blue-collar Catholic district based in south Boston, would likely be the only anti-abortion Democratic in the race, but he has strong ties with organized labor.
• MD-Gov: While most of the question marks surrounding the Maryland governor’s race involve whether or not GOP ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich wants a rematch with current Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley, now some are wondering if O’Malley will face a primary challenge from former Prince George’s Co. Executive Wayne Curry. Speculation centers on how O’Malley has nailed down endorsements from Dems all over the state but is missing some key endorsements from PG County.
• NJ-Gov: Wow, what is it with this guy? So it turns out that back in 2002, Chris Christie turned his sail barge the wrong way down a one-way street, struck a motorcyclist (who was taken to the hospital)… and didn’t get a ticket. No claims about a tow-truck driver recognizing Christie this time – here, we know he identified himself to the officer on the scene. When he was asked if Christie’s title affected the officer’s decision not to issue a summons, the police director said “I don’t think I want to make that kind of deduction, but I think the facts speak for themselves.” Ouch. (D)
• OR-Gov: Lots of movement in the Oregon governor’s race now that John Kitzhaber is in. Democratic state Rep. Brian Clem (who had set up an exploratory committee a few months ago) quickly moved to endorse Kitzhaber and not just get out of the way but join Kitz’s campaign as a director. Meanwhile, Republican state Senator Jason Atkinson — who finished third in the GOP primary in 2006 and has “next in line” status — informally told his hometown paper, the Medford Mail-Tribune, that “he’s running,” although the formal announcement won’t happen for a while. Finally, it sounds like Rep. Peter DeFazio is making a move to… do something. He’s still considering the race, but will make a decision “around Labor Day,” which is soon.
• SC-Gov: Here’s a tea leaf that Jim Rex, who’d be the Dems’s strongest candidate, seems likely to get in the gubernatorial race. In the midst of touring the state and raising money, he says he won’t run for another term as Superintendent of Education.
• AZ-01: It sounds like the GOP has a candidate lined up in the 1st, to against freshman Dem Ann Kirkpatrick, who’s a definite improvement over the sad Sydney Hay from last time. Former state Senate majority leader Russell “Rusty” Bowers (also a former state Rep., and now a sand-and-gravel industry lobbyist) seems like he’s set to run.
• IN-08: The NRCC, however, wasn’t able to pin down a challenger to Brad Ellsworth in the 8th. Former Vandenburgh County Commissioner and county assessor Cheryl Musgrave decided not to run against Ellsworth, although she is considering a state House run instead against incumbent Dem Gail Riecken.
• PA-03: The GOP had been previously struggling to find anyone at all to go against freshman Dem Kathy Dahlkemper, but now they’ve landed someone fairly impressive sounding. John Onorato (not to be confused with Dem gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato) is the former Erie County Solicitor (analogous to DA in most states), giving him a large constituency to build on.
• SD-AL: State Rep. Shantel Krebs of Sioux Falls said that she’s considering challenging Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in 2010. Krebs would likely need to get past Chris Nelson, the state’s two-term Secretary of State, in the GOP primary though; he’s also in the “considering” phase. (Remember that South Dakota House districts are teeny constituencies, with only 22,000 residents each.)
• NYC-Mayor: One more SurveyUSA poll of the Dem primary in the Big Apple. William Thompson and Mark Green have pretty clear paths in the Mayor and Public Advocate primaries (Thompson leads Tony Avella 52-14), but check out the Comptroller’s race. It’s a three-way slugfest between three city councilors: 25% for John Liu, 24% for Melinda Katz, and 21% for David Yassky.
• Ads: The DNC, via Organizing for America, is running cable TV spots for four potentially vulnerable House Dems, thanking them for their pro-stimulus votes: Ben Chandler, Martin Heinrich, Travis Childers, and Zack Space.
• Polling: The Masters of the Crosstabs were all on hand to do a panel on polling at Netroots Nation last month: Charlie Cook, Mark Blumenthal, Nate Silver, and Charles Franklin, moderated by Greg Dworkin (aka DemFromCT). At the link, you’ll find a video of their session. (Charlie gives a nice shout-out to SSP at about 7:40, and again at 80:20, where he talks about the “growing sophistication of the blogosphere.”) (D)
• Humor: Autotune the News 8 is out, in case you’ve ever wanted Joe Biden to sing you a slow jam.
Oh, god, please…anyone but Lynch. I’ll just cry if he wins
State Senator Jeff Chapman, whose five-county district (the 3rd) includes a large portion of southeast Georgia and the Georgia coast, including Brunswick, St. Simons Island, St. Marys, and Folkston, has announced he’s running for governor.
The profiles of him make him sound much like your prototypical right-winger (anti-choice, gun nut, pro-vouchers, anti-tax, etc.), with the exception of his opposition to developing St. Simon’s Island. Whether his conservation is more NIMBYness or indicates a larger preference toward conservation remains to be seen. I would guess he and Austin Scott would probably be the most palpable Republicans currently in the race.
http://chronicle.augusta.com/s…
http://savannahnow.com/node/77…
http://www.jeffchapman.us/issu…
The downballot effects are probably minimal. SD-03 is 22% black, according to the demographics on DRA. We have no bench at the state house level. If State Rep. Jerry Keen wants a promotion (which I doubt considering he’s in the house leadership and has already turned down statewide runs), we may can poach his district. All of the other house districts within SD-03 look either safe even in the event of an open seat and/or have an incumbent living outside SD-03 who would therefore be ineligible to run in SD-03.
Surely this drip drip drip has to be hurting his poll numbers. I mean the narrative is so easy to see, this guy puts people in jail for corruption, all the while ignoring the law and making deals based on his office. No telling what this guy would do as gov… Corizine is an idiot and I wish we had a different candidate (also true in VA) but if life gives you a choice between stale bread and dog turds… well you get the drift.
The PG County Exec is Jack Johnson. Wayne Curry is the former county exec. Both Johnson, Curry, and former Montgomery County Exec Dough Duncan and former delegate George Owings have all been rumored at some point to be primarying O’Malley. I don’t think any of them have any shot.
I’m curious to know if Mahoning County DA Paul Gains is going to follow through on his run for SoS. I actually think he’d be great at it, but I’m not sure how the rest of OH will react to him. His struggle against the Y-town mafia and surviving an attempted wacking will be very appealing to voters, but I wonder if they’ll be turned off by his resembling a deranged Donald Southerland.
A number of people in my grad classes at Akron (including an old friend from YSU) are working with Brunner’s campaign, and many of them suggested that Brunner can mitigate her fundraising disparity by appealing to those out-of-state. My friend, who is now head of the Mahoning County Women’s Caucus, suggested that Brunner make appeals to CA or NY.
BTW, Jim Traficant is now a free man. Hard to believe 7 years have gone by since I watched his expulsion on TV (after having predicted it for several months). I doubt he wants to run for anything anymore. He’s had health problems and he’s 68. Methinks he might pursue, at most, a radio show, but I think he just wants to be left alone.
Survey USA latest has McDonnell up 54-42.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
Not great but Deeds has swung NoVa and is competitive with indies. Needs to get some Dems back though. Can’t see McD getting 18% of AA voters. Don’t think it is over.
What is it with the NRSC trying to get people from Phoenix to run in the extremely rural 1st District? Last cycle they tried to get Ken Bennett, Bill Konopnicki, Kris Mayes, and Andy Tobin to run, all of whom live in the outskirts of Phoenix. Bennett and Mayes at least live in Prescott, which is definitely a part of the 1st, but c’mon, out-of-state campaign committee — these people aren’t going to beat someone like Kirkpatrick in a district that prides itself on its rural values (Kirkpatrick was born on the Apache Reservation). If the RNC wants my advice, there’s a fellow out in Globe by the name of Lewis Tenney who nearly won the nomination back in 2002 and could probably roll Kirkpatrick. But no, they go for Rusty Bowers, a Mesa resident whose connection with Phoenix is stronger than all the others they’ve mentioned. This seat will stay safely Dem if Bowers is the GOP nominee.
But it looks like the Mayor is in danger of being knocked out in the primary.
I have negative feelings toward Yassky because of the apparent push poll I was subjected to, but I don’t know much about Melinda Katz, other than that former Mayor Koch endorses her in the mailer I got today and that John Liu is from what I know an active and good City Councilman representing the district that includes Flushing, Queens. I guess that means I’m leaning toward Liu. I am suspicious of anyone Koch wants me to vote for, because he’s become so conservative. Do any of you have more information or thoughts on this race?
However, both DeFazio and Kitzhaber have excellent credentials as progressives.
DeFazio has the distinction of being a real progressive who wins big in a swing district.
DeFazio probably has one of the toughest commutes of our voting members of congress – with the exception of those from Alaska and Hawaii, as he has to drive at least a couple of hours to get to a major airport, and then still take a couple of flights.
Yes, a race to succeed DeFazio would be at best lean D.