When Congressional districts are redistricted after the 2010 Census, it will be possible to redistrict both the States of Alabama and Mississippi so that each has an additional reasonably compact Black majority congressional district. As you can see in the table below, Alabama most definitely has a high enough African American population for 2 of its 7 Congressional districts to be Black opportunity districts. Anything less than that would pretty clearly constitute the dilution of Black voting power in Alabama. Mississippi is a closer case, but between 2000 and the 2010 census, it will have passed the point at which it is more proportional to have 2 African American opportunity districts than to have only 1. It is also less of a sure thing that two African American Representatives could actually be elected, because the Black majorities in the two African American districts cannot be too large.

AL and MS Demographics, 2000 and 2008

State	Year	% Black	% White	Proportional Majority-Minority Districts	Total Congressional Districts
MS	2000	36.7%	62.4%	1.48	4
MS	2008	37.2%	58.7%	1.55	4
AL	2000	26.3%	70.3%	1.91	7
AL	2008	26.4%	68.4%	1.95	7

Here is what I came up with for Mississippi:

Redistricted Congressional District Data

District	Obama	McCain	Other	Total	Obama %	McCain %	White %	Black %
1	95078	224861	3263	323202	29.42%	69.57%	73%	20%
2	182986	146763	2219	331968	55.12%	44.21%	43%	52%
3	184268	150996	2252	337516	54.60%	44.74%	45%	51%
4	92330	201977	2872	297179	31.07%	67.96%	71%	22%

The 2nd and 3rd Districts are Majority Black and should lean Democratic, while the 1st and 4th Districts only have about 20% African American population each and are very, very Republican. I did not have to radically change the general shapes and geographic characteristics of Mississippi’s Congressional districts in order to achieve this. Nor did I have to cross county lines willy-nilly, although with some trading around of territory, it would almost certainly be possible to increase the African American % of either or both the 2nd and 3rd districts by a couple of points.

The Obama/McCain numbers are presumably a pretty good guide of whether or not Black candidates have a shot at getting elected in these districts. Voting was extraordinarily polarized by race – if you can believe the exit polls, Obama got 98% of the Black vote and only 11% of the White vote in Mississippi. In the 2nd and 3rd, the answer is yes – Obama won with about 55% in both. But this is probably not so safe that it is inconceivable that a White/Republican candidate could win under some circumstances, but it should be more difficult for a White or Republican candidate to win these particular 55% Obama seats than most other 55% Obama seats.

It was easy to calculate the vote when counties were not split. In the few cases where they were, I made rough estimates (except for in Jackson, where I maintained the existing CD lines, so that was easy to calculate). So don’t treat those splits as exact numbers, but they won’t be so far enough off that they actually alter the partisanship of the districts as a whole.

MS-1 (Blue)

MS-1 Demographics/2008 Data

District	Obama	McCain	Other	Total	Obama %	McCain %	White %	Black %
1	95078	224861	3263	323202	29.42%	69.57%	73%	20%

District	County	Obama	McCain	Others	Total	Obama %	McCain %
1	Alcorn	4,130	10,805	247	15,182	27.20%	71.17%
1	Benton (pt.)	664	449	20	1,133	58.61%	39.63%
1	Calhoun	2,522	4,467	45	7,034	35.85%	63.51%
1	Choctaw	1,459	2,624	45	4,128	35.34%	63.57%
1	DeSoto	19,627	44,222	474	64,323	30.51%	68.75%
1	Hinds (pt.)	6,050	9,392	122	15,564	38.87%	60.34%
1	Itawamba	2,084	7,663	204	9,951	20.94%	77.01%
1	Lee	12,021	22,694	245	34,960	34.39%	64.91%
1	Marshall	2,602	3,147	39	5,788	44.96%	54.37%
1	Neshoba	3,114	8,209	79	11,402	27.31%	72.00%
1	Newton (pt.)	322	3,400	22	3,744	8.60%	90.81%
1	Pontotoc	2,982	9,727	159	12,868	23.17%	75.59%
1	Prentiss	3,020	7,703	221	10,944	27.60%	70.39%
1	Rankin	14,372	48,140	591	63,103	22.78%	76.29%
1	Scott	5,025	6,584	62	11,671	43.06%	56.41%
1	Simpson (pt.)	1,512	3,808	70	5,390	28.05%	70.65%
1	Tippah	2,623	6,937	165	9,725	26.97%	71.33%
1	Tishomingo	1,962	6,249	208	8,419	23.30%	74.22%
1	Union	2,985	9,072	138	12,195	24.48%	74.39%
1	Webster	1,349	4,072	36	5,457	24.72%	74.62%
1	Winston	4,653	5,497	71	10,221	45.52%	53.78%

MS-1 drops from 27% Black to 20% Black, as it ditches a few counties with reasonably high Black populations and stretches south to pick up Rankin County, next to Jackson. If Travis Childers can manage to survive in 2010, he would have an even tougher time winning this district in 2012. But 2/3 of his current district remains, so maybe he would have some sort of shot. If he did achieve the impossible, and Gene Taylor stays in Congress, MS could potentially have a 4-0 Dem delegation, at least for a while.

MS-2 (Green)

MS-2 Demographics/2008 Data

District	Obama	McCain	Other	Total	Obama %	McCain %	White %	Black %
2	182986	146763	2219	331968	55.12%	44.21%	43%	52%

District	County	Obama	McCain	Others	Total	Obama %	McCain %
2	Adams	9,021	6,566	109	15,696	57.47%	41.83%
2	Amite (pt.)	632	1,481	16	2,129	29.69%	69.56%
2	Attala	3,849	5,273	61	9,183	41.91%	57.42%
2	Benton (pt.)	1,563	1,880	62	3,505	44.59%	53.64%
2	Bolivar	10,334	4,891	156	15,381	67.19%	31.80%
2	Carroll	2,037	3,902	26	5,965	34.15%	65.41%
2	Claiborne	4,682	748	23	5,453	85.86%	13.72%
2	Coahoma	7,597	2,917	54	10,568	71.89%	27.60%
2	Franklin	1,733	2,909	43	4,685	36.99%	62.09%
2	Grenada	5,029	6,234	58	11,321	44.42%	55.07%
2	Holmes	7,765	1,714	64	9,543	81.37%	17.96%
2	Humphreys	3,634	1,462	30	5,126	70.89%	28.52%
2	Issaquena	579	364	7	950	60.95%	38.32%
2	Jefferson	3,883	551	44	4,478	86.71%	12.30%
2	Lafayette	7,997	10,278	185	18,460	43.32%	55.68%
2	Leake	4,151	5,148	60	9,359	44.35%	55.01%
2	Leflore	8,914	4,105	62	13,081	68.14%	31.38%
2	Madison	19,831	27,203	235	47,269	41.95%	57.55%
2	Marshall	7,083	3,536	71	10,690	66.26%	33.08%
2	Montgomery	2,609	3,071	32	5,712	45.68%	53.76%
2	Panola	8,690	7,620	106	16,416	52.94%	46.42%
2	Quitman	2,803	1,334	31	4,168	67.25%	32.01%
2	Sharkey	1,907	873	15	2,795	68.23%	31.23%
2	Sunflower	7,838	3,245	110	11,193	70.03%	28.99%
2	Tallahatchie	4,105	2,786	52	6,943	59.12%	40.13%
2	Tate	5,003	7,678	97	12,778	39.15%	60.09%
2	Tunica	3,279	1,017	36	4,332	75.69%	23.48%
2	Warren	10,489	11,152	123	21,764	48.19%	51.24%
2	Washington	13,148	6,347	88	19,583	67.14%	32.41%
2	Wilkinson	3,534	1,560	45	5,139	68.77%	30.36%
2	Yalobusha	3,151	3,628	47	6,826	46.16%	53.15%
2	Yazoo	6,116	5,290	71	11,477	53.29%	46.09%

MS-2 is Bennie Thompson’s seat, and it remains majority Black, but it drops from 63% African American down to 52%. The main change is that it loses Jackson, which goes to the third district, and it gains population spreading out to the North and the East of its current lines.

This could be a small problem, because Thompson lives in Jackson. A tentacle could be drawn in to Jacskon to take in his home. He could either run in the 3rd district, which will include a substantial amount of new constituents, move to the 2nd. The division of territory between the 2nd and 3rd could also be reconfigured – I would have done that, except it would have looked odd for the 3rd to stretch way up the Mississippi river. One solution might be to use Winston County as a bridge connecting Attala and Noxubee/Oktibbeha/Kemper. Anyone have a good idea of how to do this? Of course, Thompson also just stay where he is and run in the 2nd anyway. Given his longstanding ties to the district, it is not like it would be a major political problem for him not to live in his district.

MS-3 (Purple)

MS-3 Demographics/2008 Data

District	Obama	McCain	Other	Total	Obama %	McCain %	White %	Black %
3	184268	150996	2252	337516	54.60%	44.74%	45%	51%

District	County	Obama	McCain	Others	Total	Obama %	McCain %
3	Amite (pt.)	2,716	2,764	41	5,521	49.19%	50.06%
3	Chickasaw	4,588	4,395	75	9,058	50.65%	48.52%
3	Clay	6,558	4,466	68	11,092	59.12%	40.26%
3	Copiah	7,710	6,701	91	14,502	53.17%	46.21%
3	Covington	3,852	5,523	86	9,461	40.71%	58.38%
3	Hinds (pt.)	69,351	23,557	430	93,338	74.30%	25.24%
3	Jasper (pt.)	4,724	2,848	41	7,613	62.05%	37.41%
3	Jefferson Davis	4,454	2,871	45	7,370	60.43%	38.96%
3	Kemper	3,256	1,935	32	5,223	62.34%	37.05%
3	Lauderdale	13,332	19,582	200	33,114	40.26%	59.14%
3	Lawrence	2,587	4,369	53	7,009	36.91%	62.33%
3	Lincoln	5,505	10,781	116	16,402	33.56%	65.73%
3	Lowndes	13,209	13,994	262	27,465	48.09%	50.95%
3	Monroe	7,169	10,184	143	17,496	40.98%	58.21%
3	Newton (pt.)	2,896	3,179	36	6,111	47.39%	52.02%
3	Noxubee	5,030	1,525	34	6,589	76.34%	23.14%
3	Oktibbeha	9,326	9,320	146	18,792	49.63%	49.60%
3	Pike	9,276	8,651	128	18,055	51.38%	47.91%
3	Simpson (pt.)	3,305	3,833	82	7,220	45.78%	53.09%
3	Smith	1,968	6,265	72	8,305	23.70%	75.44%
3	Walthall	3,456	4,253	71	7,780	44.42%	54.67%

It turns out that with only relatively minor adjustments, the 3rd District can be given an African American majority. The 3rd district currently stretches from the Southwestern corner of Mississippi up North-East to Starkville. Along the way, it picks up heavily the heavily white Jackson-Suburban Rankin County.

Instead, I now have it picking up Jackson proper, which makes a world of difference. It also extends further northward to pick up areas of Mississippi’s black belt agricultural region around Columbus/West Point. Combined with Jackson, that gives you a high enough African American population to be majority black, even though many counties in between have smaller black populations.

Gregg Harper would most likely be doomed, either against Bennie Thompson or someone else. While it might be possible for a Republican who can appeal to both Black and White voters (is there such a thing in Mississippi???) to win, I have a hard time believing that Gregg Harper is that person. He also no longer lives in the district, because he lives in the ever mentioned Rankin County.

MS-4 (Red)

MS-4 Demographics/2008 Data

District	Obama	McCain	Other	Total	Obama %	McCain %	White %	Black %
4	92330	201977	2872	297179	31.07%	67.96%	71%	22%

District	County	Obama	McCain	Others	Total	Obama %	McCain %
4	Clarke	3,121	5,229	47	8,397	37.17%	62.27%
4	Forrest	11,622	15,296	266	27,184	42.75%	56.27%
4	George	1,532	7,700	103	9,335	16.41%	82.49%
4	Greene	1,366	4,361	62	5,789	23.60%	75.33%
4	Hancock	3,768	13,020	268	17,056	22.09%	76.34%
4	Harrison	22,673	38,757	527	61,957	36.59%	62.55%
4	Jackson	17,781	35,993	522	54,296	32.75%	66.29%
4	Jasper (pt.)	301	1,287	9	1,597	18.85%	80.59%
4	Jones	8,846	20,157	270	29,273	30.22%	68.86%
4	Lamar	5,159	18,497	254	23,910	21.58%	77.36%
4	Marion	4,422	8,513	75	13,010	33.99%	65.43%
4	Pearl River	4,320	17,881	242	22,443	19.25%	79.67%
4	Perry	1,533	4,067	64	5,664	27.07%	71.80%
4	Stone	1,996	5,149	101	7,246	27.55%	71.06%
4	Wayne	3,890	6,070	62	10,022	38.81%	60.57%

I kept Gene Taylor’s district almost exactly as it is now, because it already has a very small African American population (23%). The only changes are that it gets all rather than part of Jones and Marion counties, and loses its piece of Jasper County. This reduces the Black population 3%, to 20%. This combination of counties meets the population requirements almost exactly.

This doesn’t do anything to affect Gene Taylor at all. He will continue to hold his R+20 district until he decides to retire, at which point a Republican is guaranteed to win it.

MS-4 could also donate some African American voters to the third if it were necessary, with potential tendrils reaching into Hattiesburg and a few other places.

I also made a map for Alabama, but I won’t bother going into detail with that one because Johnny Longtorso has already posted a map that is basically identical to what I had made.

Mine is basically the same, except it does not cross county lines as frequently. The result is a map that looks less gerrymandered, but on the other hand my 7th District is 1% less African American than his, and my 2nd District is 3% less African American than his. That doesn’t really make much difference, as both seats should be pretty safely Democratic regardless, and more Democratic than the two Mississippi seats I drew.