It’s not at all difficult to add a second (relatively) compact African American VRA district in South Carolina. The map below has two districts (SC-06 and SC-07) with an outright majority Non-White Hispanic Single-Race African American VAP:

As a consequence of adding a second African American VRA district, all 5 incumbent Republicans are made very safe. The main beneficiaries of this are Joe Wilson and Mick Mulvaney – the African American %s in their districts decline considerably. Jim Clyburn would probably run in the 6th District, since he lives in Columbia, and the 7th District would almost certainly elect another African American Democrat.

The two African American VRA districts meet a very high legal population % threshold – it is by no means settled that a majority African American VAP is actually legally required, but this map meets even that standard. White Non-Hispanics are only 43% of the total population in each district.

The two African American VRA districts could be made more compact if any or all of the following are true:

1) Hispanic African Americans are allowed to count towards the African American %.

2) Multi-Racial people who are part African American are allowed to count towards the African American %.

3) African Americans only have to be a majority of the total population, rather than the VAP.

4) African Americans only have to be a plurality of the district.

5) All minority groups combined count towards VRA status, and all that is necessary is that the White Non-Hispanic population

I will be surprised if the DOJ or a group like the NAACP does not sue to force a second such district to be created under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act/the Gingles test.

North Carolina currently has a 8-5 Democratic Congressional majority. This redistricting plan improves the districts of all existing Democratic incumbents, or at the least does not materially harm them. After that, there are enough Democratic votes left over to turn NC-06 into a new Democratic district in the Greensboro-Winston Salem area. This is possible because population growth in North Carolina has been concentrated in the most Democratic areas of the state, like Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham.

All Democratic represented districts are drawn as Obama voting districts, though NC-07 and NC-11 only barely voted for Obama. In North Carolina, however, some of these districts are more Democratic on the local level than is reflected in the Obama/McCain vote. NC-01 remains an African American Majority district and NC-12 becomes an outright Black plurality district, rather than a near Black plurality district.

In a couple of places districts are not quite perfectly contiguous, but with minor tweaking of the boundaries of one or two precincts could be made contiguous. Touch point contiguity is used, and I did not hesitate to split counties where it was useful to do so.

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Statewide Map

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Eastern NC

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NC-01

Incumbent: G. K. Butterfield (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	44%	50%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	62%	37%
New District	62%	37%
Change	0%	0%

NC-01 has not kept up with population growth at all, so it has to expand. It meanders all over Eastern North Carolina in order to cross the magic 50% African American line. One thing that makes this hard is there is Hispanic population growth. Because there are not just 2 Racial groups to think about any more, it’s harder to get to an outright 50% majority in any district. This is an emerging problem with the Voting Rights Act, and it is going to increasingly effect districts across the South, where outright 50% African American majority districts might be legally required, but where there is also an increasing Hispanic population. This VRA seat remains quite safely Democratic.

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NC-03

Incumbent: Walter Jones (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	13%	1%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	38%	61%
New District	35%	64%
Change	-3%	+3%

NC-03 follows the outline of NC-01 along the coast, picking up precincts that lack enough African American population to be included in NC-01. Unfortunately some of these are white Democratic precincts, but there is no way to avoid that. Because NC-01 had to expand, NC-03 is pushed outwards and has to expand as well. To make up the population difference, NC-03 now runs into Johnson and Harnett Counties, taking out some very very Republican far-Raleigh exurbs off of Bob Etheridge’s hands. Despite including some Democratic precincts, it makes for a pretty good GOP vote sink – NC-03 only voted 35% for Obama.

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NC-07

Incumbent: Mike McIntyre(D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	60%	24%	8%	1%	6%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	47%	52%
New District	50%	49%
Change	+3%	-3%

NC-07 remains mostly unchanged. Conservative Blue Dog Mike McIntyre doesn’t really need the help, but I turned his district into an Obama-Voting district to increase the chances of the district staying in Democratic hands if NC-07 ever becomes an open seat. This is accomplished by giving him more Democratic (and African American) areas of Samson and Cumberland counties. NC-07 now voted for Obama by 1000 votes.

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Raleigh-Durham Area

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NC-02

Incumbent: Bob Etheridge(D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	53%	31%	2%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	52%	47%
New District	56%	43%
Change	+4%	-4%

Bob Etheridge may not necessarily need help either, but I gave it to him anyway. NC-02, already strong for Etheridge, is now even more generically Democratic. It is now only barely (53%) white. NC-02 gives up rural Sampson, Franklin, Nash, Vance, and most of Chatham counties to expand further into Raleigh and to take on more of Fayettville. As mentioned earlier, strong GOP exurbs are excised and donated to NC-03, and Democratic Hoke and Scotland counties are added from Kissell’s 8th district.

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NC-13

Incumbent: Brad Miller (D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	61%	25%	1%	4%	9%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	59%	40%
New District	58%	42%
Change	-1%	+2%

NC-13 pulls entirely out of Greensboro and Burlington and becomes more of a Raleigh centric district. It still includes some rural areas bordering NC-01, ranging from Wilson to Caswell Counties, but that is only 2/7 of the district. The bulk of NC-13 is in Wake County, expanding further into Cary. An additional 60,000 people from Durham are added in to keep Democratic performance up even after losing Greensboro. The Durham County portion added is 56% Black and voted 84% for Obama. By the metric of the Obama/McCain vote, NC-13 becomes slightly more Republican, but that is not really going to hurt Brad Miller.

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NC-04

Incumbent: David Price (D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	67%	18%	0%	5%	9%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	63%	36%
New District	61%	38%
Change	-2%	+2%

With the exception of splitting Durham and losing part of Cary, NC-04 remains mostly the same. Burlington and more of Chatham County are added, but NC-04 remains solidly Democratic. With all of Chapel Hill and most of Durham, David Price has nothing to worry about.

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Greensboro-Winston Salem Area

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NC-06

Incumbent: Virginia Foxx (R) and Howard Coble (R), but…

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	61%	27%	0%	3%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	36%	63%
New District	58%	41%
Change	+22%	-22%

NC-06 gets a major makeover, transforming from the most heavily Republican district in North Carolina into a reasonably strong Democratic leaning seat. It undergoes a massive net 44 point swing in the Obama vote. Both Howard Coble (Greensboro) and Virginia Foxx (Winston Salem) probably live in the new NC-06, but probably neither would choose to run here. While this district voted 58% for Obama, it also voted for Bush twice (though swinging to Kerry from Gore), so Democratic representation is not guaranteed. The district includes all of Greensboro and all of Winston Salem and High Point that did not have to be in NC-12. Rather than include some nasty GOP exurbs, it extends northwards to pick up 83,000 people from rural counties to the north (voting 47% Obama). But even if the district were reconstructed to be entirely within Forsyth and Guildford Counties, it would still be a 55-56% Obama District.

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NC-05

Incumbent: Virginia Foxx (R)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	5%	0%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	38%	61%
New District	32%	67%
Change	-6%	+6%

Virginia Foxx takes one look at the new NC-06 and decides she had better stick with NC-05. It contains much more of her old territory and is utterly safely Republican. NC-05 stretches from the Greensboro suburbs in the East to the Appalachians in the West, then south to the edge of Charlotte. Unfortunately I had to include some relatively Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County around Davidson, because they did not have enough African Americans to be included in NC-12. In imitation of the old NC-06, it uses touchpoint contiguity to cross NC-12 in Iredell County.

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NC-09

Incumbent: Howard Coble (R) vs. Sue Myrick (R)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	86%	6%	0%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	45%	54%
New District	32%	67%
Change	-13%	+13%

NC-09 now stretches from Greensboro to Charlotte, studiously avoiding anything that looks remotely Democratic along the way. The new NC-09 sets up a possible Republican Primary between Howard Coble and Sue Myrick. Howard Coble is 79 years old and might retire with this map, but if not he will run in the 9th. Sue Myrick might live in either the 8th or the 9th district. While she could run in NC-08 and possibly even win a very difficult campaign, she would certainly prefer a safe GOP district. In an NC-09 GOP primary, Coble would probably be favored, because the district contains more of his old constituents than Myrick’s. Touch point contiguity is shamelessly used in Charlotte to cross over NC-08.

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Charlotte Area

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NC-08

Incumbent: Larry Kissell (D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	61%	22%	0%	4%	11%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	53%	47%
New District	58%	41%
Change	+5%	-6%

Larry Kissell is listed as the incumbent in the refurbished NC-08, but as I alluded to, Sue Myrick may also live here. If Kissell survives 2010, he finds a district similar to but different from his current district. 5/7ths of the district is in Charlotte and none of Fayettville remains. The district voted 58% for Obama, but may well have voted for Bush. It is now much more an urban/suburban Charlotte district with some rural areas attached, rather than a rural district with some Charlotte attached. How good or bad this would be for Kissell is an interesting question. On the one hand, the district is substantially more Democratic (by the criteria of Obama vote%, anyway). On the other hand, the more suburban constituency has different concerns from the more rural constituents of the previous NC-08. Kissell would also have to worry about the possibility of a primary challenger from Charlotte. If on the other hand Kissell loses in 2010, this district would probably elect a Democrat from Charlotte, though I could see it electing a Republican as well.

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NC-12

Incumbent: Mel Watt (D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	42%	42%	0%	2%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	70%	29%
New District	65%	35%
Change	-5%	-6%

NC-12 becomes more Republican even while becoming a plurality African American district, because there are fewer white Democrats. According to the 2000 census, NC-12 was 47% White, 44% Black, and 7% Hispanic. Mel Watt will not have any problems in this plurality Black district. He will also be pleased that it is more thoroughly based around Charlotte, removing the only real possible threat to his re-election – a Greensboro-Winston Salem based primary challenge. NC-12 still extends somewhat into Winston Salem and High Point, but pulls entirely out of Greensboro. It also now sends a tentacle west from Charlotte through Gastonia and into Shelby. An important consideration in drawing this district to be Plurality African American is Hispanic population growth. It is actually helpful to include precincts with large Hispanic populations, especially if the African American population in the precinct exceeds the white population, because adding Hispanics helps to decrease the white population. To make a plurality Black district, reducing the White population helps just as much as increasing the Black population. A 42-42 district is also better for Democratic partisan gain than e.g. a 45-45 district would be, because that leaves more African American voters (with higher turnout and rates of Democratic support) for NC-08 and NC-06. The wild card is that NC-12 will probably draw a legal challenge, no matter how it is drawn.

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Western NC

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NC-10

Incumbent: Patrick McHenry (R)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	5%	0%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	36%	63%
New District	32%	66%
Change	-4%	+3%

You can’t win them all, and NC-10 is one of the one’s you can’t win. First of all, the area in which NC-10 is based is heavily Republican. Second of all, tentacles jut into it from NC-08 and NC-11, stealing anything which even hints at being Democratic. Technically it is not entirely contiguous in Shelby county. But that’s ok – a thin strip could be cut along the South Carolina border connecting southern Cleveland and Gaston counties.

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NC-11

Incumbent: Heath Shuler (D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	86%	6%	0%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	47%	52%
New District	49%	49%
Change	+2%	-3%

Somehow, Heath Shuler’s NC-10 is converted into a district which actually voted for Obama, carved entirely out of Western North Carolina. This inherently involves giving the district a rather convoluted shape. One great tentacle protrudes out of Asheville to Morgantown, where the it divides into three baby tentacles which devour selected portions of Boone, Lenoir, and Hickory. At the same time, Republican precincts south of Asheville are excised from NC-10 by a tentacle from NC-11. This is just enough, barely, to make a district which Obama won by about 700 votes, out of just under 400,000 cast. In reality, this probably doesn’t do much make Shuler much safer. He was reasonably safe to begin with, despite his district voting for McCain. But now he’s a little safer, and the chances of keeping the seat Democratic if it ever becomes open go up.

Texas is going to add 3 or 4 Congressional seats after the 2010 census. At least theoretically, there are four possible types of Congressional maps that could be drawn for Texas in 2010. In rough order of probability, they are:

1) A Republican Gerrymander

2) A Bi-Partisan Compromise Map

3) A Court Drawn Map

4) A Democratic Gerrymander

Texas is a very easy state to gerrymander. Geographically, Texas has a number of large population centers – chiefly Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, with vast sparsely populated rural areas in between. For example, it is not difficult to draw a geographically relatively compact looking district which start on the New Mexico border but jut into downtown Fort Worth. But the reality in terms of population distribution will belie the appearance of the map.

Another basic fact about Texas is it has a very large number of counties – 254. As a result, it is only rarely really necessary to split counties up between multiple districts for the purpose of achieving population equality. The real reasons for most county splits you will see on a map of Texas are political, and sometimes racial in the case of Voting Rights Act districts.

So any time you see a map of Texas that splits up lots of counties, you can be pretty sure that it is a major gerrymander. It’s just simply not necessary to split up counties for anything other than an extreme gerrymander.

A compromise map would be most likely if neither party completely controls the redistricting process. Currently Republicans have complete control Texas’ redistricting apparatus. That could change if Texas Democrats can manage to win back either the State House or the Governorship, with the Governorship looking like the likelier possibility of the two at this point.

A compromise map would give the Legislature (and the Governor) a chance to change the overall structure. A court drawn map, on the other hand, would likely maintain the basic structure of most or all existing districts.

In the case of split control, both Democrats and Republicans would have some incentives to compromise, but also some incentives to block any map and throw things into the courts, if they were not happy with a compromise map.

Democrats would want to roll back the worst abuses of the existing Republican Gerrymander, replacing many of the current districts (which stretch from the middle of major cities out hundreds of miles away via spiraling rural spaghetti strands 1 or 2 counties in width) with more geographically coherent districts confined to major metro areas and their immediate suburbs. This would involve substantial overall changes to the existing redistricting scheme – something Democrats could only achieve with assurance through a compromise map. On the other hand, the Republican gerrymander has started to come under some real strain, and a number of GOP incumbents are in increasingly serious long term danger. If the basic structure of the existing gerrymander remains in place without major political alteration, that will remain the case. So if Democrats cannot get what they want through a compromise map, they are unlikely to hesitate too much before throwing things to the courts.

On the other hand, Republicans would want to protect their incumbents in major metropolitan areas who are coming under increasing threat. In the case of many districts, such as TX-24, that can only be done by changing the basic structure of the districts. So Republicans will want to have a chance to change things to protect their existing gerrymander. While a court plan might strengthen some GOP incumbents, there are many that could be gravely endangered by the sorts of relatively small changes that a court might make when adding new districts and shifting boundaries around to achieve population equality. On the other hand, if Republicans do not feel that their incumbents are generally being well protected, they may conclude that taking the risk of a court drawn map is a better option.

This is my attempt at creating a relatively realistic compromise map. Geographically, I tried to generally respect county lines. Because nearly all of Texas’ population growth is Hispanic, and also because more Democratic districts are necessary to protect Republican incumbents, 3 of 4 new seats are Hispanic Voting Rights Act Districts. On the other hand, if no new Hispanic Voting Rights districts were added and all the new seats were designed to elect Republicans in the immediate term, Democrats could potentially flip many more than 3 seats by 2020. I reduced the mixing of rural areas with very different suburban and urban areas, and reduced the number of spaghetti strand districts – except in the Rio Grande Valley, where it is necessary to avoid over-packing Hispanic voters in order to comply with the Voting Rights Act. TX-21 is also still a bit of a spaghetti strand district, but other than that, I think the districts are generally much more compact and sensible than the current districts. In total there are 14 Democratic districts, 20 Republican districts, and 2 swing districts (TX-6 and TX-10). One Republican district would likely be won by a Democratic incumbent, Chet Edwards in TX-17, but if he retires the seat will very probably go GOP. Democrats would have a pretty good chance of winning both of the swing districts as well, because Republican primary voters in Texas have a hard time nominating the sorts of candidates with the broad appeal necessary to win in swing districts.

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East Texas

East Texas as a region was one of the big losers of the 2003 redistricting. While East Texas has the population to support 3 or 4 Congressional districts, there is only 1 true East Texas district – TX-01. This was an intentional part of the Republican gerrymander of Texas. East Texas was tied in with suburban Republican areas in a series of Dallas and Houston based districts designed to defeat rural East Texas Democratic incumbents and replace them with Suburban Dallas/Houston Republican challengers. This compromise map tries to change that a little bit, while still being basically friendly to the existing Republican incumbents. Under this map, there are 4 districts that can reasonably be considered predominantly East Texas districts.

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TX-01

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	73%	16%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	31%	69%
New District	29%	70%
Change	-2%	+1%

TX-01 remains very similar. A few counties shift, but overall the district remains heavily Republican and centered on Tyler. Louie Gohmert is not going anywhere.

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TX-02

Incumbent: Ted Poe (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	72%	18%	3%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	40%	60%
New District	34%	65%
Change	-6%	+5%

TX-02 shifts out of Houston and further into Harris County, as other districts collapse towards Houston. But Humble, where Ted Poe lives, remains in the district. Democrats are not happy about submerging African American voters in Beaumont in an unwinnable district, and would much rather link Jefferson County with something competitive in the Houston area, to make a district that someone like Nick Lampson could win.

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TX-04

Incumbent: Ralph Hall (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	13%	2%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	30%	69%
New District	30%	69%
Change	0%	0%

TX-04 moves out of fast growing Collin County and is now more of a North-East Texas district, with Rockwall County appended. It remains heavily Republican, and after Ralph Hall eventually retires will elect another Republican.

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TX-36

Incumbent: None

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	69%	15%	2%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	…	…
New District	31%	68%
Change	…	…

TX-36 is a new East-Central Texas Republican district. As I mentioned, in the previous Republican gerrymander, Tom DeLay split up East Texas between many different districts based in the suburbs of Dallas and Houston, because he did not trust East Texas not to keep on electing Democratic incumbents to Congress. That is no longer an issue, particularly in a compromise map. Because the political reason for the Dallas and Houston suburbs splitting up and dominating East Texas no longer really exists, East Texas can have more districts to itself. TX-36 will elect a Republican. The only question is which part of the district that Republican will come from.

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West Texas

All three West Texas districts retain the same basic shape in this compromise map. However, their boundaries are smoothed out because the Republican political desire to ensure the defeat of former Democratic representative Charlie Stenholm is no longer a factor.

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TX-13

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	75%	5%	3%	17%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	23%	77%
New District	22%	77%
Change	-1%	0%

TX-13 has to expand to meet its population quota, but still connects Amarillo and Wichita Falls, and is still ridiculously lopsidedly Republican. McCain beat Obama by 55% here.

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TX-19

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	64%	6%	2%	28%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	27%	72%
New District	27%	72%
Change	0%	0%

TX-19 remains a Lubbock-Abilene district, but is no longer quite so gerrymandered, because it is no longer necessary to ensure the defeat of Charlie Stenholm. Democrats and Hispanics voting rights advocates look at the high Hispanic populations in parts of TX-19 and TX-11 and dream of a Hispanic majority district in West Texas, reaching down into El Paso and Del Rio, would look like. That could happen in a Democratic gerrymander, and will likely happen regardless in 2020, but probably won’t happen in a 2010 compromise map.

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TX-11

Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	4%	2%	29%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	24%	76%
New District	24%	75%
Change	0%	-1%

TX-11 was created in 2003 to give former GOP House Speaker Tom Craddick’s Midland a distinct to “dominate.” It remains a Midland-Odessa dominated district, but is sucked into the Hill Country towards San Antonio, because the population numbers simply are not there in West Texas. If a West Texas GOP district were to be sacrificed to create a new Hispanic majority district, look for it to be TX-11 that gets the axe. Craddick remains controversial even among some Republicans, and if something has to be sacrificed, many would rather that it be Midland than anything else.

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Dallas-Fort Worth

In Dallas-Fort Worth, this compromise map generally tries to respect county and municipal lines, to the extent practicable. Incumbent Republicans are generally protected (with the exceptions of Joe Barton and possibly Pete Sessions), and a new Democratic Hispanic seat is added. Dallas-Fort Worth districts are actually generally restricted to the actual Dallas-Fort Worth area, rather than extending hundreds of miles away into different parts of Texas.

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TX-03

Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	5%	7%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	42%	57%
New District	36%	62%
Change	-6%	+5%

Collin County has grown enough in the last 10 years that it now can have a Congressional District all to itself, and still have some room to spare. TX-03 ditches its old portion of Dallas County, and also the part of the City of Dallas that is in Collin County. In the process, it becomes much more safely Republican. This TX-03 is strongly Republican enough to withstand even a very powerful continued trend towards Democrats.

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TX-26

Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	77%	6%	5%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	41%	58%
New District	37%	62%
Change	-4%	+4%

Like Collin County, Denton County has also grown a great deal in the last 10 years. But it is not quite large enough to have a whole Congressional District to itself, so TX-26 reaches into Collin County. In any sort of compromise map, TX-26’s ridiculous tentacle reaching into heavily African American parts of Fort Worth will be dismantled. Democrats would rather throw redistricting to the courts than abide a map that did not rectify that wrong. On the other side, Republicans will go along with dismantling the Great Tarrant Tentacle because they will want to protect Burgess through 2020.

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TX-12

Incumbent: Kay Granger (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	72%	7%	5%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	36%	63%
New District	40%	59%
Change	+4%	-4%

TX-12 is brought within Tarrant County. It remains strongly Republican, though not as overwhelmingly so as before. However, Kay Granger is relatively moderate for a Texas Republican, so even if Fort Worth continues to become more Democratic, she will be less in danger than another Republican might be.

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TX-24

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	75%	5%	8%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	44%	55%
New District	37%	62%
Change	-7%	+7%

The southern part of TX-24, (Grand Prairie, Cedar Hill, and Duncanville) is lopped off, and TX-24 becomes a North Tarrant/Dallas County district, with a small piece of South-West Collin County thrown in. The new TX-24 is much more Republican. Formerly it was only a matter of time before Marchant succumbed to a Democratic challenger. In this new district, he stands a good chance of surviving another decade.

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TX-34

Incumbent: None

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	22%	20%	3%	54%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	…	…
New District	71%	28%
Change	…	…

TX-34 is a new Democratic Dallas-Fort Worth district with a small Hispanic majority. The 54% majority is small enough that there is a good chance that this district would not actually end up electing a Hispanic representative. Slight changes can increase the size of the Hispanic majority, most notably in the Tarrant County part of the district. But if you do that, then there are extra African American voters lying around. If they ended up in TX-12, 24, or 6, they would make those districts substantially more Democratic. From a partisan perspective, that would be good for Democrats, but endangering too many GOP incumbents would probably be a deal breaker for the GOP. So in a compromise map, the end result in the Dallas-Fort Worth area might be the creation of a Hispanic VRA district, but not one that is too heavily Hispanic.

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TX-06

Incumbent: Joe Barton (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	56%	16%	7%	21%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	40%	60%
New District	52%	48%
Change	+12%	-12%

Even after the creation of a new Hispanic majority TX-34 packed full of as many minority voters as possible, and after Eddie Bernice Johnson’s TX-30 is similarly packed full of minority voters, there are still Democratic votes left over in Dallas-Fort Worth, particularly in the Southern Mid-Cities. There are three ways that these extra Democratic votes could be dealt with.

A) They could be split up between tendrils of multiple GOP districts spiraling out in all directions for hundreds of miles.

B) They could be combined in one district to create a third solidly Democratic district in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. This could be done while making TX-34 more heavily Hispanic, taking out African American voters and adding them to another district (in this case, TX-6).

C) Some could be put in one district, but not enough to make the district solidly Democratic. In other words, a swing district could be created.

Democrats would balk at option A, while Republicans would balk at option B. In any sort of compromise map, therefore, option C is the most likely. This is one area where compromise would probably be most difficult, and where either side could easily throw in the towel on negotiations and decide to let the courts draw the map.

On the GOP side, for there to be a compromise, something in the Dallas-Fort Worth area has to be sacrificed. TX-6’s status a safe GOP district is a logical choice. The new TX-6 basically consists of the city limits of Arlington, Grand Prairie, Duncanville, Cedar Hill, and a small piece of Irving. Incumbent GOP Representative Joe Barton has talked about retiring, and this redistricting could push him – voluntarily or involuntarily – out of Congress. If he chose not to retire, Barton would have a chance of holding this seat for a while. But if he did, or even if he did not, Democrats would have a stable of strong potential candidates for this swing district, such as State Representatives Kirk England, Chris Turner, and Paula Pierson.

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TX-32

Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	12%	8%	18%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	46%	53%
New District	45%	54%
Change	-1%	+1%

This new TX-32 loses the heavily Hispanic arm reaching down to Oak Cliff to the new TX-34. The current TX-32 actually does not have a white majority, but this re-drawing does. While the Obama percentage does not decrease by much, Pete Sessions is probably made a bit safer than might appear. In the current district, it is only a matter of time and Hispanic turnout before Sessions loses. But with this new district, many Democratic base voters are swapped out for North Dallas swing voters who may have voted for Barack Obama, but will at least consider voting GOP. But even though this new TX-32 extends slightly into Collin County, up to the edge of the Plano city limits, it is not necessarily safe GOP for a decade. It’s just a basic unavoidable fact that Northern Dallas county is changing demographically and politically. It would take either the removal of much of TX-32 from Dallas County or some major gerrymandering in order to make it really and permanently safe GOP. That could theoretically be accomplished by having TX-30 (already well packed at 78% Obama) extend a tendril up the LBJ freeway (towards, but not actually into Richardson) to pick up Democratic precincts, and rotating TX-32, TX-24, TX-12, and TX-6, and TX-30 all counter-clockwise in a circle around TX-34. But that would push TX-6 into heavily African American precincts in TX-30, turning it from a swing district into a safe Democratic district. TX-12 could also be endangered one day by being dragged into Arlington. Alternatively, TX-05 could pick up lots of Democratic precincts from TX-30, to make up room from TX-30’s hypothetical LBJ arm. But that would be a GOP gerrymander, not a compromise map. Unless Democrats got something major in return, they would be foolish to allow anything like that.

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TX-30

Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	43%	2%	25%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	82%	18%
New District	78%	21%
Change	-4%	+3%

This new TX-30 gives up Hispanic areas near down town Dallas to TX-34 and makes up the population loss by extending further east into suburbs like Mesquite. This makes it marginally less Democratic, but it is still the most lopsided district in the state on the Obama/McCain measure.

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TX-05

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	76%	7%	3%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	36%	63%
New District	31%	68%
Change	-5%	+5%

TX-6 moves not only out of Dallas County and also more out of the rural areas to which it was previously attached. Instead, it becomes an exurban ring district around the southern half of Dallas-Fort Worth. From Garland, it goes through the counties of Kaufman, Ellis, Johnson, and finally Parker to the west of Fort Worth. Geographically, this does look somewhat odd, but these counties have a lot in common – certainly much more so than North Dallas and rural Cherokee county, as in the former district.

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Central Texas

For the purposes of this map, I am using a broad definition of Central Texas, including everything from Waco all the way down Interstate-35 to San Antonio. The 7 Central Texas districts are largely confined to areas that can be reasonably considered part of Central Texas, if a broad definition is used. The safety of Chet Edwards is traded for the safety of John Carter, Austin is put largely back together again, Lamar Smith is made very safe, and Ciro Rodriguez gets a district entirely within Bexar county.

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TX-17

Incumbent: Chet Edwards (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	61%	19%	3%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	32%	67%
New District	40%	59%
Change	+8%	-8%

Democrats and Republicans make a trade. Chet Edwards, the only white Democrat to survive redistricting in 2003, is a less ridiculously Republican (but still Republican) district. In exchange, John Carter is given a district which he should be able to hold for the longer term. TX-17 becomes much like it was before 2003 Redistricting – centered on McLennan and Bell counties. The Fort Worth suburbs in the north are gone, as is Brazos County in the south. Edwards might like to keep Brazos county, but Brazos, Bell, and McLennan counties cannot all be in the same district without being split, because the combined populations are too large. Edwards should be safe in this district, but when he retires it will flip to the Republicans.

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TX-31

Incumbent: John Carter (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	79%	4%	3%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	42%	58%
New District	35%	63%
Change	-7%	+5%

TX-31 is the other half of the trade. John Carter has started feeling pressure to his re-election prospects on two fronts. First, Williamson County is undergoing the process of being assimilated into the weirdness of Austin. Second, Bell County (home to Fort Hood) has been becoming less favorable to the GOP. Killeen’s large and steadily growing African American population combined with the unpopularity of the Iraq war helped make Bell County swing much more Democratic in 2008. That could turn out to be a one time event, but it might not. In any event, John Carter could not feel safe in a district that consisted only of Williamson and Bell counties. So this keeps Williamson County but bypasses Bell, instead heading to the around it to the west, and then north as far as the outskirts of Fort Worth’s exurbs. This change makes the district once again heavily Republican, but if Williamson County does the same thing it has done over the past 10 years, TX-31 could conceivably become more competitive again as 2020 approaches.

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TX-25

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	13%	6%	35%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	59%	40%
New District	73%	25%
Change	+14%	-15%

Austin is put back together, something which will happen if Democrats have any so whatsoever in Texas redistricting, and probably even if they do not. However, Travis County has a population of about a million people, so it will have to be split somehow between (at least) two Congressional districts regardless. The split in this map is by no means the optimal scenario for Democrats, as Democratic votes are packed into TX-25. In fact, the rest of Travis County not in this TX-25 only voted 52-46 Obama. For the record, Travis County could be split east-west almost exactly along the line of I-35. If that were done and TX-10 otherwise were the same as on this map, TX-25 would be a 61% Obama district and TX-10 would be 56% Obama – enough to send another Austin area Democrat to Congress alongside Lloyd Doggett. On the other hand, in a GOP gerrymander competitive Austin area counties could be parceled out between multiple surrounding rural districts. So Democrats would be very foolish to accept anything less than at least two Democratic or winnable Democratic districts out of the Austin area. A court drawn map would almost certainly be more favorable.

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TX-10

Incumbent: Mike McCaul (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	73%	5%	4%	18%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	44%	55%
New District	48%	50%
Change	+4%	-5%

Even after the creation of a TX-25 that is packed full of Democratic votes, and is more Democratic than Travis County as a whole, there is left over competitive territory in Travis, Hays, Caldwell, and Bastrop counties. Those counties have to go somewhere. They could be split up between multiple districts, but that would be a Republican gerrymander. There’s simply no alternative in a compromise map to another Austin area district winnable by Democrats. To Mike McCaul’s chagrin, TX-10 becomes a real live swing district. Democrats have a number of strong potential candidates for this TX-10, including State Representatives Valinda Bolton, Donna Howard, and Patrick Rose. While this district voted narrowly for McCain, I have a very hard time imagining that it will stay Republican all the way through 2020.

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TX-20

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	8%	3%	58%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	63%	36%
New District	59%	40%
Change	-4%	+4%

Yes, I mixed up the colors between TX-20 and TX-23. TX-20 is light blue, while TX-23 is light pink.

There is now a high enough Hispanic population in Bexar county to support 2 Congressional districts with healthy Hispanic majorities. Charlie Gonzalez will be safe in TX-20.

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TX-20

Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	8%	3%	59%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	58%	41%
Change	+7%	-7%

TX-23 is no longer a sprawling mega-district, extending from San Antonio to El Paso. It is now all in San Antonio. Ciro Rodriguez should like that fact, and will like the new, much smaller, and more Democratic TX-23.

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TX-21

Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	6%	3%	21%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	41%	58%
New District	32%	67%
Change	-9%	+9%

Lamar Smith’s TX-21 is gracefully extracted from its tenuous perch in downtown Austin. Because there are now two Hispanic Congressional seats entirely within Bexar county, its piece of San Antonio also becomes smaller, whiter, and more intensely Republican. To get the rest of its population, it goes east through a spaghetti strand line of counties roughly following I-10 into the Houston exurbs. This arrangement does not make much sense, but is the only real option if Austin is not to be diluted and gerrymandered (which would be a dealbreaker for Democrats). It can’t go South because it cannot mess with Voting Rights Hispanic districts. It can’t go West because there is not enough room in West Texas even for TX-11, 13, and 19 as it is. So there has to be something connecting parts of San Antonio, Austin, and/or Houston. In this case, TX-21 is it. After making this map, I realized that it could actually go into Fort Bend County rather than Harris, leaving all of Western Harris County in TX-7.

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Houston

Under this map, Houston is pretty clearly the most gerrymandered part of Texas. That is an inevitable consequence of squeezing two African American and two Hispanic Voting Rights Act districts into the area. The cost of adding a new Hispanic majority district in Houston is reducing the Hispanic percentage in the existing TX-29. While it is uncertain at best that Hispanic voters actually make up a majority of the electorate in either district, the chances of a Hispanic representative from Houston go up, if only because Gene Green can only occupy one Congressional seat at a time. All incumbent Republicans are made safe – even John Culberson, who is given a district so Republican that it ought to be impossible even for him to lose.

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TX-07

Incumbent: John Culberson (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	74%	5%	8%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	41%	58%
New District	32%	67%
Change	-9%	+9%

TX-7 becomes much more Republican. It is bleached of all the minority voters it possibly can be, who end up in Houston’s various minority districts. After every remotely competitive precinct is removed from the district, what remains is a 32% Obama district extending through Katy way out into Fort Bend County. If John Culberson is not safe in this district, he might as well retire today. Still, if this TX-07 shifts Democratic as quickly as the previous iteration did over the last decade, Culberson could actually face a competitive challenge by the end of the next decade.

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TX-07

Incumbent: John Culberson (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	35%	37%	6%	23%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	77%	22%
New District	68%	31%
Change	-9%	+9%

TX-18 is like a mutant Octapus, stretching all around Houston. The reason it does this is to make the new TX-35 as heavily Hispanic as possible. It maintains an African American plurality, and while TX-18 is less Democratic than before, it will continue to elect Sheila Jackson-Lee. There may well be a neater and more compact way to draw while creating a maximally Hispanic TX-35, but if there is a better way, I could not figure out what it was.

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TX-35

Incumbent: Gene Green? (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	22%	12%	5%	60%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	…	…
New District	60%	40%
Change	…	…

TX-35 is a new Hispanic district in Houston. Will it actually elect a Hispanic representative? I am not at all sure it will. Will Gene Green run in it, or in TX-29? Probably depends on where exactly he lives.

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TX-29

Incumbent: Gene Green? (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	25%	13%	4%	58%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	62%	38%
New District	64%	36%
Change	+2%	-2%

TX-29 is a new Hispanic district in Houston. Will it actually elect a Hispanic representative? I am not at all sure it will. Will Gene Green run in it, or in TX-35? Probably depends on where exactly he lives.

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TX-09

Incumbent: Al Green (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	23%	42%	11%	23%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	77%	23%
New District	75%	24%
Change	-2%	+1%

TX-09 extends a bit further into Fort Bend County, picking up some of the Democratic precincts that have been bleeding into TX-22 and giving Republicans heartburn. It also loses the more heavily Hispanic areas of Southwest Houston to TX-35. The result is a heavily Democratic district with a substantial African American plurality – bigger now than in TX-18.

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TX-22

Incumbent: Pete Olson (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	68%	7%	11%	15%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	41%	58%
New District	36%	63%
Change	-5%	+5%

Fort Bend county is changing demographically and politically more quickly than just about any other place in Texas. It is that change which has been rapidly shifting TX-22. To rectify this problem (problem for the GOP, that is) TX-09 and TX-15 combine to take in many more of Fort Bend’s Democratic precincts. It is possible that even after these major changes designed to make TX-22 much more Republican, it could well be quite competitive by 2020. The rest of the district remains largely the same, though silliness – such as including heavily minority areas in the district just because Tom DeLay thought it would be fun to have an airport (Hobby) in his district – is eliminated.

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TX-14

Incumbent: Ron Paul (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	14%	3%	21%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	33%	66%
New District	40%	60%
Change	+7%	-6%

Though it still extends south along the Gulf of Mexico all the way to Port Aransas, TX-14 is sucked largely into greater Houston. The rural areas around Victoria are gone. The district is still strongly Republican, but not as overwhelmingly so as before. There is also some careful precinct trading between TX-14 and TX-22. If either Ron Paul or Pete Olson has to be in some sort of hypothetical danger, Republicans would rather it be Paul, and I can easily foresee Democrats obliging. Ron Paul should be fairly safe, but if Brazoria county starts going the way of Fort Bend, Paul could find himself in some minor trouble.

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South Texas and El Paso

A common reaction upon seeing South Texas’ Congressional districts is wondering why they are all long, thin strips running from the Mexican border hundreds of miles north. Why, one wonders, didn’t they just draw a compact district or two along the border? The reason is that doing so overly packs Hispanic voters in a handful of districts. In fact, this was tried in 1980, and found to be illegal. So the long spaghetti strand districts are a fact of life for South Texas Congressional Districts. In any event, in this compromise map, South Texas districts remain largely similar to the previous versions. However, there has been a lot of population growth, and there is room for 1 (or even 2 in a Democratic Gerrymander) additional Hispanic majority seat which will send a Hispanic Democratic representative to Washington.

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TX-27

Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	25%	2%	2%	71%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	53%	46%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+2%	-2%

TX-27 remains almost entirely the same as the old district. The only change is that it retreats from San Patricio County, and picks up a very small part of Harlingen in exchange. Solomon Ortiz should be quite safe here.

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TX-15

Incumbent: Ruben Hinojosa (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	25%	4%	1%	70%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	60%	40%
New District	54%	45%
Change	-6%	+5%

TX-15 is still based firmly in Weslaco-Harlingen in South Texas. But it now extends northwards all the way to the outskirts of Houston, where it skirts into Fort Bend county to pick up Hispanics in Rosenberg. For the record, that’s a 7 hour drive.

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TX-33

Incumbent: None

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	21%	2%	1%	76%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	…	…
New District	55%	45%
Change	…	…

TX-33 is our new Hispanic border district. Like TX-15, it is based firmly in South Texas, and it is essentially a certainty that it will elect a Hispanic Democrat from McAllen.

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TX-28

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	20%	1%	1%	77%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	56%	44%
New District	57%	43%
Change	+1%	-1%

TX-28 becomes much larger geographically, as it expands along the border, running through Eagle Pass and Del Rio, all the way to the outskirts of El Paso. This is actually very likely to make Henry Cuellar very happy, because this ensures that Laredo is the predominant population center in the district. And the only real threat to Cuellar’s re-election prospects is the risk of a geographically based Democratic primary challenge from a Hispanic Democrat in another population center. There is quite simply nowhere else in this district with a population base to support a primary challenge against a Laredo Democrat like Cuellar. The district also becomes more Democratic, mainly because it no longer contains Guadalupe County or any of San Antonio’s eastern suburbs.

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TX-16

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	18%	3%	2%	77%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	66%	34%
New District	65%	34%
Change	-1%	0%

Finally we arrive out in the West Texas town of El Paso, home to TX-16. TX-16 shrinks very slightly due to population growth, but otherwise remains exactly the same.

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The End

So, there’s my try at a compromise map for Texas congressional districts, assuming 36 seats. This is by no means the most likely scenario for redistricting Texas. Even if Democrats were able to gain partial control over the process, both sides would have incentives to throw the re-mapping to the courts. But it’s possible, and that’s what it might look like. Overall, it has 14 Democratic seats, 2 Swing seats, and 20 Republican seats. If Chet Edwards holds on and Democrats can win the swing seats, Texas could have up to a 17D-19R delegation. A GOP gerrymander would obviously be less favorable, and a Democratic gerrymander (of which there is a 0% chance, since it would require taking back the State Senate) could hypothetically deliver a Democratic majority.

I tried out the new partisan data feature for Maryland in Dave’s App. I made an 8-0 Democratic Gerrymander. Just for kicks, I also made a 4-4 GOP Gerrymander, although there is no chance that the Republicans will control redistricting in Maryland. The Democratic gerrymander shamelessly aims to make every seat about as Democratic as the state of Maryland as a whole, while the GOP gerrymander aims to squeeze out the maximum number of lean-Republican districts, although it is not certain that Democratic incumbents would be defeated in all 4 seats.

8-0 Democratic Gerrymander

4-4 Republican Gerrymander

8-0 Democratic Gerrymander

MD-1 60-37 Obama

MD-1 contains all of the Eastern Shore except Cecil County (which you can argue is not really part of the “Eastern Shore” of Maryland). Then it jumps across the Chesapeake to Annapolis, and goes spiraling inland to pick up Democratic precincts in the DC suburbs. Kratovil should now be more worried about a primary challenge than the general election.

MD-2 59-38 Obama

I maintained the overall design of MD-2 and MD-3, giving each part of the Baltimore suburbs. MD-2 picks up Cecil County from MD-1. Ruppersburger remains just as safe.

MD-3 59-38 Obama

MD-3 combines part of Baltimore City and County with parts of Anne Arundel and Howard Counties. No real change for John Sarbanes.

MD-4 71-26 Obama; 50% Black

I tried to get the most I possibly could out of MD-4… The district is based in Prince George’s County, but now stretches through a very thin strip of land all the way to Garrett County in the far western corner of Maryland. Despite my best efforts and this district’s preposterous shape, I could not find a way to get it below 71% for Obama without bringing the African American percentage under 50%. Donna Edwards has nothing to worry about.

MD-5 62-36 Obama

MD-5 becomes a little less Democratic, mostly to help MD-1. But the overall shape of the district remains, and Hoyer is safe.

MD-6 59-39 Obama

Wave goodbye to Roscoe Bartlett (R). Most of his district is now in Montgomery County. A Democrat from Gaithersburg/Rockville should have little difficulty dispatching him.

MD-7 62-35 Obama; 50% Black

Although MD-7 is 50% Black, it only voted 62% for Obama. The white voters in the Baltimore Suburbs and Harford County are strongly Republican. Elijah Cummings ought to be fine, but he would be wise to make at least some effort to appeal to some white voters.

MD-8 60-37 Obama

Strongly Democratic Montgomery County dilutes GOP leaning areas of Howard, Baltimore, and Carroll Counties. Chris Van Hollen should be quite safe.

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4-4 Republican Gerrymander

MD-1 56-41 McCain

This version of MD-1 is actually a bit more Democratic than the current version. But Frank Kratovil is unlikely to ever be truly safe in a 56-41 McCain district.

MD-2 52-45 McCain

It is possible that either Dutch Ruppersberger or Paul Sarbanes could win in this Baltimore Suburbs district, but MD-2 now leans GOP.

MD-3 77-21 Obama

MD-3 is a Central Maryland leftovers district, stretching from the DC suburbs to the Baltimore suburbs, taking the most Democratic areas that remain. This is essentially an open seat. Neither Paul Sarbanes or Steny Hoyer live in this district, though might potentially prefer running in MD-3 than the alternative of running in a GOP leaning district.

MD-4 89-9 Obama; 69% Black

This version of MD-4 packs Democratic and African American voters in Prince George’s County to just about the maximum possible extent. Donna Edwards is very safe, but what a waste of Democratic votes.

MD-5 51-46 McCain

All the most Democratic areas are taken out of MD-5, as it moves out of Prince George’s and further north in Anne Arundel County. Steny Hoyer could probably still win this version of MD-5, but he would have to campaign for it, and he would face continual challenges.

MD-6 55-42 McCain

MD-6 becomes less Republican as it gives up its areas around Baltimore to the 2nd District. Roscoe Bartlett would continue to win in this district, and when he retires another Republican would be favored over any Democrat.

MD-7 87-11 Obama; 64% Black

MD-7 packs Democratic votes very compactly in Baltimore. There are a lot of wasted Democratic votes in this district.

MD-8 71-26 Obama

MD-8 actually becomes a little bit less Democratic, but it fulfills its task of keeping the most Democratic areas of Montgomery County out of MD-6.

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After having completed this exercise, what strikes me is that the GOP Gerrymander ends up being substantially more compact than the Democratic Gerrymander. While it could be a bit more compact in a few places, it is pretty close to what you would draw if you were basing a map solely on geography. This is a good illustration of the fact that Democratic voters are much more naturally concentrated than GOP areas. In areas where Democrats do the best, everyone is a Democrat (chiefly PGC & Baltimore City). While in the GOP’s best areas, a decent number of people have the sense to be vote Democratic. So overly compact districts tend to result in a few 80/20 Democratic seats and a bunch of 55/45 Republican seats.

The votes on Health Care reform last night brought a lot of less than perfect Democrats to our attention. Lists of who voted for the Stupak Amendment, who voted for the Republican Motion to Recommit, and who voted against final passage have flown around fast and furious.

So I made a “Health Care Reform Primary Index” to combine all of this information together in one place, giving a rough list of which Democrats most likely deserve a primary challenge on the basis of their votes last night. But this is not at all conclusive, and does not take into account any other issues other than the 3 Health Care votes. To be clear, I am not talking about quixotic Doug Hoffmanesque Third Party runs, but about Democratic Primary challenges.

In order to appear in the table below, a Representative must voted on the wrong side of history on at least one of the 3 Health Care Reform votes.

District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Louisiana 2nd	D+25	Cao – R	Y	Y	Y	34
Alabama 7th	D+18	Davis	Y	N	N	24
Pennsylvania 14th	D+19	Doyle	Y	N	Y	22
California 43rd	D+13	Baca	Y	N	Y	16
Ohio 17th	D+12	Ryan	Y	N	Y	15
California 20th	D+5	Costa	Y	Y	Y	14
Michigan 5th	D+11	Kildee	Y	N	Y	14
Illinois 3rd	D+11	Lipinski	Y	N	Y	14
Massachusetts 9th	D+11	Lynch	Y	N	Y	14
California 18th	D+4	Cardoza	Y	Y	Y	13
Ohio 9th	D+10	Kaptur	Y	N	Y	13
Texas 16th	D+10	Reyes	Y	N	Y	13
Rhode Island 2nd	D+9	Langevin	Y	N	Y	12
Massachusetts 2nd	D+9	Neal	Y	N	Y	12
Ohio 10th	D+8	Kucinich	N	N	N	11
Texas 28th	EVEN	Cuellar	Y	Y	Y	9
New York 20th	R+2	Murphy	N	Y	N	7
Georgia 12th	D+1	Barrow	Y	N	N	7
Pennsylvania 11th	D+4	Kanjorski	Y	N	Y	7
Tennessee 5th	D+3	Cooper	Y	N	Y	6
Illinois 12th	D+3	Costello	Y	N	Y	6
Maine 2nd	D+3	Michaud	Y	N	Y	6
Wisconsin 7th	D+3	Obey	Y	N	Y	6
Georgia 2nd	D+1	Bishop	Y	N	Y	4
Ohio 1st	D+1	Driehaus	Y	N	Y	4
Washington 3rd	EVEN	Baird	N	N	N	3
Ohio 16th	R+4	Boccieri	Y	N	N	2
New Jersey 3rd	R+1	Adler	N	N	N	2
Pennsylvania 12th	R+1	Murtha	Y	N	Y	2
North Carolina 7th	R+5	McIntyre	Y	N	N	1
North Carolina 8th	R+2	Kissell	N	N	N	1
Indiana 8th	R+8	Ellsworth	Y	Y	Y	1
Indiana 2nd	R+2	Donnelly	Y	N	Y	1
North Carolina 2nd	R+2	Etheridge	Y	N	Y	1
Michigan 8th	R+2	Oberstar	Y	N	Y	1
Texas 27th	R+2	Ortiz	Y	N	Y	1
Michigan 7th	R+2	Peterson	Y	N	Y	1
Ohio 6th	R+2	Wilson	Y	N	Y	1
Alabama 5th	R+12	Griffith	Y	Y	N	0
Pennsylvania 4th	R+6	Altmire	Y	N	N	0
Pennsylvania 17th	R+6	Holden	Y	N	N	0
North Carolina 11th	R+6	Shuler	Y	N	N	0
Tennessee 8th	R+6	Tanner	Y	N	N	0
New Mexico 2nd	R+6	Teague	Y	N	N	0
Pennsylvania 3rd	R+3	Dahlkemper	Y	N	Y	0
Michigan 1st	R+3	Stupak	Y	N	Y	0
Tennessee 6th	R+13	Gordon	Y	Y	N	-1
Arkansas 4th	R+7	Ross	Y	N	N	-1
Florida 24th	R+4	Kosmas	N	N	N	-1
New York 13th	R+4	McMahon	N	N	N	-1
North Dakota At-large	R+10	Pomeroy	Y	Y	Y	-1
Texas 23rd	R+4	Rodriquez	Y	N	Y	-1
Oklahoma 2nd	R+14	Boren	Y	Y	N	-2
Mississippi 1st	R+14	Childers	Y	Y	N	-2
New York 29th	R+5	Massa	N	N	N	-2
Virginia 2nd	R+5	Nye	N	N	N	-2
Minnesota 7th	R+5	Peterson	N	N	N	-2
Virginia 5th	R+5	Perriello	Y	N	Y	-2
Colorado 3rd	R+5	Salazar	Y	N	Y	-2
Arkansas 2nd	R+5	Snyder	Y	N	Y	-2
Utah 2nd	R+15	Matheson	Y	Y	N	-3
Kentucky 6th	R+9	Chandler	Y	N	N	-3
Florida 2nd	R+6	Boyd	N	N	N	-3
Colorado 4th	R+6	Markey	N	N	N	-3
Indiana 9th	R+6	Hill	Y	N	Y	-3
West Virginia 3rd	R+6	Rahall	Y	N	Y	-3
Alabama 2nd	R+16	Bright	Y	Y	N	-4
Georgia 8th	R+10	Marshall	Y	N	N	-4
Ohio 18th	R+7	Space	Y	N	Y	-4
South Carolina 5th	R+7	Spratt	Y	N	Y	-4
Arkansas 1st	R+8	Berry	Y	N	Y	-5
Pennsylvania 10th	R+8	Carney	Y	N	Y	-5
Louisiana 3rd	R+12	Melancon	Y	N	N	-6
South Dakota At-large	R+9	Herseth-Sandlin	N	N	N	-6
West Virginia 1st	R+9	Mollohan	Y	N	Y	-6
Tennessee 4th	R+13	Davis	Y	N	N	-7
Missouri 4th	R+14	Skelton	Y	N	N	-8
Virginia 9th	R+11	Boucher	N	N	N	-8
Idaho 1st	R+18	Minnick	N	Y	N	-9
Maryland 1st	R+13	Kratovil	N	N	N	-10
Mississippi 4th	R+20	Taylor	Y	N	N	-14
Texas 17th	R+20	Edwards	N	N	N	-17

The formula I used takes district PVI as a starting point. Representatives from strongly Democratic districts generally have little excuse for voting against Health Care Reform. On the other hand, it doesn’t make much sense to waste resources primarying bad Democrats in places where a better Democrat is unlikely to win – we ought not to emulate the Club for Growth and Doug Hoffman.

So Democratic districts start off with a positive score equal to their PVI, and Republican districts start off with a negative score equal to their PVI. A bad representative from a D+5 district starts off with 5 primary points, while a bad representative from an R+5 district starts off with -5 primary points.

I added 3 points if the Representative voted in favor of the Stupak Amendment.

I added 6 points if the Representative voted in favor of the Republican Motion to Recommit. That vote gets more points because it is particularly odious – it was a vote to COMPLETELY KILL HEALTH CARE REFORM by sending it back to committee. That is pretty much the most perfidious vote that a Representative could cast, and is much worse than voting against final passage of the bill.

I finally added 3 points if the Representative voted againts final passage of the Health Care Reform bill.

HCR Primary Index = PVI + Stupak(3) + Recommit(6) + Passage(3)

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I’d say that any Democratic Representative with a positive HCR Primary Index score asked for a primary challenge. Not all will get one, and perhaps few would be defeated. I don’t pretend to dictate to the voters in those districts, but if I lived in one of those districts, I’d certainly vote in a primary against the bad incumbent. I suspect that many of the people who do live in those districts would as well. That’s Democracy, after all.

Perhaps some of these Representatives were legitimately voting the way their constituents wanted them to. If that’s the case, while I’m disappointed, I say fine. But if that’s the case, they should have little difficulty winning a primary campaigning on their Health Care Votes. That’s Democracy, after all.

Perhaps some of these Representatives were legitimately voting their consciences. If that’s the case, while I’m disappointed, I say fine. But if that’s the case, some of their constituents may wish to vote their own consciences in a primary against them. That’s Democracy, after all.

Perhaps some of the Representatives further up this list don’t really deserve a primary challenge, based on other issues. Perhaps some of the Representatives further down this list do deserve a primary challenge, based on other issues.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Louisiana 2nd	D+25	Cao – R	Y	Y	Y	34

It’s important that we keep in mind that while some Democrats voted the wrong way on Health Care, 177 out of 177 Republicans did as well. To remind us of that, I included Anh Joseph Cao on this list, even though the rest of the list, and this diary, is focused on Democrats. By applying the same neutral criteria to Cao that I applied to every bad Democrat, he comes out top on the list of Representatives who need to go. While Cao voted in favor of the final bill, he did so after it had already passed. He also voted in favor of the Stupak amendment, and voted to kill Health Care Reform entirely by voting for the motion to recommit. We should not pretend that Cao is in any way a good Representative. In fact, relative to his district, Cao is the worst Representative in Congress on Health Care. He can and will be replaced by a good Democrat in 2010. Not Cao, not Bill Jefferson, but a solid New Orleans Progressive who legitimately puts the people of that city first.

The same considerations apply to many other Republican representatives, especially the handful left in Democratic leaning districts, and those faux-“moderates” like Mike Castle and Mark Kirk who are running for Senate.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Alabama 7th	D+18	Davis	Y	N	N	24

Representative Artur Davis. You represent an African American majority district in Alabama, with lots of uninsured constituents. You also are running for Governor of Alabama.

More precisely, Artur Davis is a black man running for Governor in Alabama, second in racially polarized voting only to Mississippi. We can only guess that Davis harbors the delusional belief that his odious votes in favor of the Stupak Amendment and against final passage will cause Conservative white Republican Alabamians to vote for him. In other words, he thinks that he can do in Alabama what Harold Ford could not do in Tennessee. By all appearances, Artur Davis is deeply cynical and is a sad excuse for a human being. The best that can be said of Artur Davis is that at least he voted against the motion to recommit, but no Democrat ought to have voted for that. That is hollow praise. I can’t say that I’ll shed a tear when Davis loses massively among white voters in his gubernatorial race.

There will be no primary challenge in AL-7, because Davis is not running again. The people of AL-7 have an opportunity to select a much better Democratic Representative to replace him.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Pennsylvania 14th	D+19	Doyle	Y	N	Y	22

Representative Mike Doyle. You represent the city of Pittsburgh. Your district is ridiculously Democratic (D+19). I can sort of feel, partly, for Jason Altmire in that much more Republican district next to yours. But you?

Perhaps a great many Democratic voters in Pittsburgh agree with Doyle’s vote for the Stupak Amendment. That’s certainly plausible. Maybe even a large majority. But I bet that a number of his constituents do not. If they organize a primary and win, a legitimately pro-choice Democrat would have no difficulty winning PA-14. I’ll raise a Donna Edwards to your Al Wynn.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
California 43rd	D+13	Baca	Y	N	Y	16

Representative Joe Baca. You represent a strongly Democratic Hispanic majority part of San Bernadino County in California. You voted for the Stupak amendment.

Much the same considerations apply here is do to Boyle. The only difference is that his district has lots of white working class Catholics, while this district has lots of Latino Catholics. But a better Democrat would have no trouble winning a general election in this district.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Ohio 17th	D+12	Ryan	Y	N	Y	15

Representative Tim Ryan. I can believe that a great many of your constituents in Northeast Ohio agree with your vote on the Stupak Amendment. I doubt you will actually face a primary, and I doubt even more that you would lose one. But if a pro-choice Democrat unseated you in a primary, they could win here too.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
California 20th	D+5	Costa	Y	Y	Y	14

Representative Jim Costa. It looks like you are the second worst Representative in Congress on Health Care, relative to your district, after Joseph Cao. You are the worst Democrat in Congress on Health Care.

CA-20 voted 60-39 for Obama. CA-20 is based in California’s Central Valley, is majority Hispanic, and includes parts of Fresno and Bakersfield. Jim Costa voted for the GOP Motion to Recommit – Costa voted to completely kill Health Care Reform by sending it back to Committee. This is also the House equivalent of voting to filibuster Health Care Reform in the Senate. Maybe the people of CA-20 agree with the vote for the Stupak Amendment, but I am pretty sure they don’t agree with the vote to effectively filibuster Health Care Reform. What is the deal there? Does Jim Costa think that he can vote to filibuster, then vote to pass the bill, and that nobody will notice or care?

A far better Democrat than Jim Costa can win in CA-20.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Michigan 5th	D+11	Kildee	Y	N	Y	14

Representative Dale Kildee. Another Midwestern Catholic vote for the Stupak Amendment.

This district is safely Democratic. If I lived there, I’d vote for a better Democrat in a primary, and if they won, they’d win the general election. Are there any people in Flint that feel the same way?

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Illinois 3rd	D+11	Lipinski	Y	N	Y	14

Representative Dan Lipinski. Another Midwestern Catholic vote for the Stupak Amendment.

Lipinski only got 55% in his 2006 primary. Apparently he has not learned. This district is safely Democratic. If I lived there, I’d vote for a better Democrat in a primary, and if they won, they’d win the general election. Are there any people in Chicago that feel the same way? Some more good news is that Lipinski’s district can and should be redistricted into oblivion in 2010, though that’s not necessarily likely.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Massachusetts 9th	D+11	Lynch	Y	N	Y	14

Representative Stephen Lynch. Massachussetts? Really?

Perhaps on the basis of working class Catholic votes, this is the guy that most people in the district want. But I wonder what would happen in a Democratic primary. Win or lose, it would be Democracy in action.

Another thought occurs to me – MA is going to lose a seat in 2010 Congressional Reapportionment. Seems like this one might be the one to let go?

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Massachusetts 9th	D+11	Lynch	Y	N	Y	14

Representative Stephen Lynch. Massachussetts? Really? Boston? Really?

Boston?

Did I say Boston? Any progressives in Boston want a new job? This seat is calling.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
California 18th	D+4	Cardoza	Y	Y	Y	13

Representative Dennis Cardoza. Blue Dog from California. The same situation as fellow Californian Jim Costa, and I’d say that Dennis Cardoza is the 3rd worst Representative in Congress on the issue of Health Care Reform, relative to the district represented.

CA-18 voted 59-38 for Obama. Like CA-20, CA-18 is based in California’s Central Valley, and is majority/plurality Hispanic. and includes parts of Fresno and Bakersfield. Like Jim Costa, Dennis Cardoza voted for the GOP Motion to Recommit – Cardoza voted to completely kill Health Care Reform by sending it back to Committee. This is also the House equivalent of voting to filibuster Health Care Reform in the Senate. Maybe the people of CA-18 agree with the vote for the Stupak Amendment, but I am pretty sure they don’t agree with the vote to effectively filibuster Health Care Reform. What is the deal there? Does Dennis Cardoza think that he can vote to filibuster, then vote to pass the bill, and that nobody will notice or care?

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Ohio 9th	D+10	Kaptur	Y	N	Y	13

Representative Marcy Kaptur. Like Tim Ryan, I have a hard time being too hard on you. You are pretty good on other issues.

Still, your district could support a pro-choice Democrat.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Texas 16th	D+10	Reyes	Y	N	Y	13

Representative Silvestre Reyes. Well, at least you are not as bad as Henry Cuellar. But are you really the best Democrat we could get out of El Paso? I think not.

This district is safely Democratic. It would vote for a Pro-Choice Dem in a general election just as readily as it would vote for Reyes.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Rhode Island 2nd	D+9	Langevin	Y	N	Y	12

Representative James Langevin. OK, so I get that there are a lot of Catholics in Rhode Island. That’s fair. But not all of those are against Choice on abortion. Rhode Island is a pretty progressive place.

Can Rhode Island do better? REPUBLICAN Lincoln Chaffee was pro-choice, was he not?

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Massachusetts 2nd	D+9	Neal	Y	N	Y	12

Representative Richard Neal.

Perhaps on the basis of working class Catholic votes, this is the guy that most people in the district want. But I wonder what would happen in a Democratic primary. Win or lose, it would be Democracy in action.

Another thought occurs to me – MA is likely to lose a seat in 2010 Congressional Reapportionment. Seems like this one might be the one to let go, hmm? I guess Neal has to fight Lynch for that honor.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Ohio 10th	D+8	Kucinich	N	N	N	11

Representative Dennis Kucinich.

No reason to say anything here, people are going to disagree. I can see both sides.

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Texas 28th	EVEN	Cuellar	Y	Y	Y	9

Representative Henry Cuellar.

The original Bush Dog Democrat. You voted just like Cao and the California Cardoza/Costa twins. No, I don’t think we can get rid of you, and trying might even cause a Republican to win. But voting for the GOP motion to recommit? Why don’t you just go ahead and join the Republican Party? What percentage of your constituents are uninsured? And you seriously voted for the GOP motion to recommit?

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
New York 20th	R+2	Murphy	N	Y	N	7

Representative Scott Murphy. NY-20. Sounds familiar. Hey, weren’t you the guy that won that special election in upstate New York in a district Obama won 51-48 by saying how much you were going to support President Obama?

And you not only voted AGAINST the Health Care Reform Bill, but even voted in FAVOR of the motion to recommit?

I’ll leave it to the people in NY-20, but I bet there are a lot of people there who volunteered to get you elected that are not going to want to do so again. I bet there are some of those who would support a primary opponent running against you, even at the possible risk of having a Republican like Tedisco win NY-20.

Oh yeah, and upstate New York is losing a lot of population. In redistricting, it would make a lot of sense to pack Upstate New York Republicans either NY-20, NY-23, NY-24, or NY-25 in order to make the other 3 more Democratic. I guess you want the GOP seat to be NY-20?

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District	PVI	Rep.	Stupak	Recommit	Passage	HCR Primary Index
Georgia 12th	D+1	Barrow	Y	N	N	7

Representative John Barrow.

Well, it’s Georgia. And not Atlanta. I can’t really say I expected better. But I am disappointed. At least you are not so horrendous as to vote for the motion to recommit.

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OK, that’s as far as I am going to go down this list. I am enough of a political realist to know that by the time we start getting to the John Barrows of the world, we start to scrape the bottom of the barrel. At a certain point, it’s not worth focusing resources on primarying GOP districts in the South, and at some point it becomes a counter-productive Club for Growth fest. And against some incumbents in some districts, it is just not going to work.

There may be a few more slightly further down where a primary challenge might be productive. Baird in WA-03, for example?

But there are also some people further down the list that I personally would not mind seeing get primaried, even though primary opponents would be unlikely to win, and even though if they did win the seats would probably flip GOP. Collin Peterson, he of MN-07, springs to mind. And oh yeah, that Bart Stupak fellow?

But let’s not forget the Republicans, either. There are 177 too many of those left.