North Carolina currently has a 8-5 Democratic Congressional majority. This redistricting plan improves the districts of all existing Democratic incumbents, or at the least does not materially harm them. After that, there are enough Democratic votes left over to turn NC-06 into a new Democratic district in the Greensboro-Winston Salem area. This is possible because population growth in North Carolina has been concentrated in the most Democratic areas of the state, like Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham.

All Democratic represented districts are drawn as Obama voting districts, though NC-07 and NC-11 only barely voted for Obama. In North Carolina, however, some of these districts are more Democratic on the local level than is reflected in the Obama/McCain vote. NC-01 remains an African American Majority district and NC-12 becomes an outright Black plurality district, rather than a near Black plurality district.

In a couple of places districts are not quite perfectly contiguous, but with minor tweaking of the boundaries of one or two precincts could be made contiguous. Touch point contiguity is used, and I did not hesitate to split counties where it was useful to do so.

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Statewide Map

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Eastern NC

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NC-01

Incumbent: G. K. Butterfield (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	44%	50%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	62%	37%
New District	62%	37%
Change	0%	0%

NC-01 has not kept up with population growth at all, so it has to expand. It meanders all over Eastern North Carolina in order to cross the magic 50% African American line. One thing that makes this hard is there is Hispanic population growth. Because there are not just 2 Racial groups to think about any more, it’s harder to get to an outright 50% majority in any district. This is an emerging problem with the Voting Rights Act, and it is going to increasingly effect districts across the South, where outright 50% African American majority districts might be legally required, but where there is also an increasing Hispanic population. This VRA seat remains quite safely Democratic.

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NC-03

Incumbent: Walter Jones (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	13%	1%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	38%	61%
New District	35%	64%
Change	-3%	+3%

NC-03 follows the outline of NC-01 along the coast, picking up precincts that lack enough African American population to be included in NC-01. Unfortunately some of these are white Democratic precincts, but there is no way to avoid that. Because NC-01 had to expand, NC-03 is pushed outwards and has to expand as well. To make up the population difference, NC-03 now runs into Johnson and Harnett Counties, taking out some very very Republican far-Raleigh exurbs off of Bob Etheridge’s hands. Despite including some Democratic precincts, it makes for a pretty good GOP vote sink – NC-03 only voted 35% for Obama.

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NC-07

Incumbent: Mike McIntyre(D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	60%	24%	8%	1%	6%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	47%	52%
New District	50%	49%
Change	+3%	-3%

NC-07 remains mostly unchanged. Conservative Blue Dog Mike McIntyre doesn’t really need the help, but I turned his district into an Obama-Voting district to increase the chances of the district staying in Democratic hands if NC-07 ever becomes an open seat. This is accomplished by giving him more Democratic (and African American) areas of Samson and Cumberland counties. NC-07 now voted for Obama by 1000 votes.

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Raleigh-Durham Area

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NC-02

Incumbent: Bob Etheridge(D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	53%	31%	2%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	52%	47%
New District	56%	43%
Change	+4%	-4%

Bob Etheridge may not necessarily need help either, but I gave it to him anyway. NC-02, already strong for Etheridge, is now even more generically Democratic. It is now only barely (53%) white. NC-02 gives up rural Sampson, Franklin, Nash, Vance, and most of Chatham counties to expand further into Raleigh and to take on more of Fayettville. As mentioned earlier, strong GOP exurbs are excised and donated to NC-03, and Democratic Hoke and Scotland counties are added from Kissell’s 8th district.

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NC-13

Incumbent: Brad Miller (D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	61%	25%	1%	4%	9%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	59%	40%
New District	58%	42%
Change	-1%	+2%

NC-13 pulls entirely out of Greensboro and Burlington and becomes more of a Raleigh centric district. It still includes some rural areas bordering NC-01, ranging from Wilson to Caswell Counties, but that is only 2/7 of the district. The bulk of NC-13 is in Wake County, expanding further into Cary. An additional 60,000 people from Durham are added in to keep Democratic performance up even after losing Greensboro. The Durham County portion added is 56% Black and voted 84% for Obama. By the metric of the Obama/McCain vote, NC-13 becomes slightly more Republican, but that is not really going to hurt Brad Miller.

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NC-04

Incumbent: David Price (D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	67%	18%	0%	5%	9%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	63%	36%
New District	61%	38%
Change	-2%	+2%

With the exception of splitting Durham and losing part of Cary, NC-04 remains mostly the same. Burlington and more of Chatham County are added, but NC-04 remains solidly Democratic. With all of Chapel Hill and most of Durham, David Price has nothing to worry about.

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Greensboro-Winston Salem Area

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NC-06

Incumbent: Virginia Foxx (R) and Howard Coble (R), but…

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	61%	27%	0%	3%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	36%	63%
New District	58%	41%
Change	+22%	-22%

NC-06 gets a major makeover, transforming from the most heavily Republican district in North Carolina into a reasonably strong Democratic leaning seat. It undergoes a massive net 44 point swing in the Obama vote. Both Howard Coble (Greensboro) and Virginia Foxx (Winston Salem) probably live in the new NC-06, but probably neither would choose to run here. While this district voted 58% for Obama, it also voted for Bush twice (though swinging to Kerry from Gore), so Democratic representation is not guaranteed. The district includes all of Greensboro and all of Winston Salem and High Point that did not have to be in NC-12. Rather than include some nasty GOP exurbs, it extends northwards to pick up 83,000 people from rural counties to the north (voting 47% Obama). But even if the district were reconstructed to be entirely within Forsyth and Guildford Counties, it would still be a 55-56% Obama District.

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NC-05

Incumbent: Virginia Foxx (R)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	5%	0%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	38%	61%
New District	32%	67%
Change	-6%	+6%

Virginia Foxx takes one look at the new NC-06 and decides she had better stick with NC-05. It contains much more of her old territory and is utterly safely Republican. NC-05 stretches from the Greensboro suburbs in the East to the Appalachians in the West, then south to the edge of Charlotte. Unfortunately I had to include some relatively Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County around Davidson, because they did not have enough African Americans to be included in NC-12. In imitation of the old NC-06, it uses touchpoint contiguity to cross NC-12 in Iredell County.

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NC-09

Incumbent: Howard Coble (R) vs. Sue Myrick (R)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	86%	6%	0%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	45%	54%
New District	32%	67%
Change	-13%	+13%

NC-09 now stretches from Greensboro to Charlotte, studiously avoiding anything that looks remotely Democratic along the way. The new NC-09 sets up a possible Republican Primary between Howard Coble and Sue Myrick. Howard Coble is 79 years old and might retire with this map, but if not he will run in the 9th. Sue Myrick might live in either the 8th or the 9th district. While she could run in NC-08 and possibly even win a very difficult campaign, she would certainly prefer a safe GOP district. In an NC-09 GOP primary, Coble would probably be favored, because the district contains more of his old constituents than Myrick’s. Touch point contiguity is shamelessly used in Charlotte to cross over NC-08.

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Charlotte Area

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NC-08

Incumbent: Larry Kissell (D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	61%	22%	0%	4%	11%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	53%	47%
New District	58%	41%
Change	+5%	-6%

Larry Kissell is listed as the incumbent in the refurbished NC-08, but as I alluded to, Sue Myrick may also live here. If Kissell survives 2010, he finds a district similar to but different from his current district. 5/7ths of the district is in Charlotte and none of Fayettville remains. The district voted 58% for Obama, but may well have voted for Bush. It is now much more an urban/suburban Charlotte district with some rural areas attached, rather than a rural district with some Charlotte attached. How good or bad this would be for Kissell is an interesting question. On the one hand, the district is substantially more Democratic (by the criteria of Obama vote%, anyway). On the other hand, the more suburban constituency has different concerns from the more rural constituents of the previous NC-08. Kissell would also have to worry about the possibility of a primary challenger from Charlotte. If on the other hand Kissell loses in 2010, this district would probably elect a Democrat from Charlotte, though I could see it electing a Republican as well.

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NC-12

Incumbent: Mel Watt (D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	42%	42%	0%	2%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	70%	29%
New District	65%	35%
Change	-5%	-6%

NC-12 becomes more Republican even while becoming a plurality African American district, because there are fewer white Democrats. According to the 2000 census, NC-12 was 47% White, 44% Black, and 7% Hispanic. Mel Watt will not have any problems in this plurality Black district. He will also be pleased that it is more thoroughly based around Charlotte, removing the only real possible threat to his re-election – a Greensboro-Winston Salem based primary challenge. NC-12 still extends somewhat into Winston Salem and High Point, but pulls entirely out of Greensboro. It also now sends a tentacle west from Charlotte through Gastonia and into Shelby. An important consideration in drawing this district to be Plurality African American is Hispanic population growth. It is actually helpful to include precincts with large Hispanic populations, especially if the African American population in the precinct exceeds the white population, because adding Hispanics helps to decrease the white population. To make a plurality Black district, reducing the White population helps just as much as increasing the Black population. A 42-42 district is also better for Democratic partisan gain than e.g. a 45-45 district would be, because that leaves more African American voters (with higher turnout and rates of Democratic support) for NC-08 and NC-06. The wild card is that NC-12 will probably draw a legal challenge, no matter how it is drawn.

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Western NC

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NC-10

Incumbent: Patrick McHenry (R)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	5%	0%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	36%	63%
New District	32%	66%
Change	-4%	+3%

You can’t win them all, and NC-10 is one of the one’s you can’t win. First of all, the area in which NC-10 is based is heavily Republican. Second of all, tentacles jut into it from NC-08 and NC-11, stealing anything which even hints at being Democratic. Technically it is not entirely contiguous in Shelby county. But that’s ok – a thin strip could be cut along the South Carolina border connecting southern Cleveland and Gaston counties.

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NC-11

Incumbent: Heath Shuler (D)

	White	Black	Native American	Asian	Hispanic
Race	86%	6%	0%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	47%	52%
New District	49%	49%
Change	+2%	-3%

Somehow, Heath Shuler’s NC-10 is converted into a district which actually voted for Obama, carved entirely out of Western North Carolina. This inherently involves giving the district a rather convoluted shape. One great tentacle protrudes out of Asheville to Morgantown, where the it divides into three baby tentacles which devour selected portions of Boone, Lenoir, and Hickory. At the same time, Republican precincts south of Asheville are excised from NC-10 by a tentacle from NC-11. This is just enough, barely, to make a district which Obama won by about 700 votes, out of just under 400,000 cast. In reality, this probably doesn’t do much make Shuler much safer. He was reasonably safe to begin with, despite his district voting for McCain. But now he’s a little safer, and the chances of keeping the seat Democratic if it ever becomes open go up.