The votes on Health Care reform last night brought a lot of less than perfect Democrats to our attention. Lists of who voted for the Stupak Amendment, who voted for the Republican Motion to Recommit, and who voted against final passage have flown around fast and furious.
So I made a “Health Care Reform Primary Index” to combine all of this information together in one place, giving a rough list of which Democrats most likely deserve a primary challenge on the basis of their votes last night. But this is not at all conclusive, and does not take into account any other issues other than the 3 Health Care votes. To be clear, I am not talking about quixotic Doug Hoffmanesque Third Party runs, but about Democratic Primary challenges.
In order to appear in the table below, a Representative must voted on the wrong side of history on at least one of the 3 Health Care Reform votes.
| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Louisiana 2nd | D+25 | Cao – R | Y | Y | Y | 34 |
| Alabama 7th | D+18 | Davis | Y | N | N | 24 |
| Pennsylvania 14th | D+19 | Doyle | Y | N | Y | 22 |
| California 43rd | D+13 | Baca | Y | N | Y | 16 |
| Ohio 17th | D+12 | Ryan | Y | N | Y | 15 |
| California 20th | D+5 | Costa | Y | Y | Y | 14 |
| Michigan 5th | D+11 | Kildee | Y | N | Y | 14 |
| Illinois 3rd | D+11 | Lipinski | Y | N | Y | 14 |
| Massachusetts 9th | D+11 | Lynch | Y | N | Y | 14 |
| California 18th | D+4 | Cardoza | Y | Y | Y | 13 |
| Ohio 9th | D+10 | Kaptur | Y | N | Y | 13 |
| Texas 16th | D+10 | Reyes | Y | N | Y | 13 |
| Rhode Island 2nd | D+9 | Langevin | Y | N | Y | 12 |
| Massachusetts 2nd | D+9 | Neal | Y | N | Y | 12 |
| Ohio 10th | D+8 | Kucinich | N | N | N | 11 |
| Texas 28th | EVEN | Cuellar | Y | Y | Y | 9 |
| New York 20th | R+2 | Murphy | N | Y | N | 7 |
| Georgia 12th | D+1 | Barrow | Y | N | N | 7 |
| Pennsylvania 11th | D+4 | Kanjorski | Y | N | Y | 7 |
| Tennessee 5th | D+3 | Cooper | Y | N | Y | 6 |
| Illinois 12th | D+3 | Costello | Y | N | Y | 6 |
| Maine 2nd | D+3 | Michaud | Y | N | Y | 6 |
| Wisconsin 7th | D+3 | Obey | Y | N | Y | 6 |
| Georgia 2nd | D+1 | Bishop | Y | N | Y | 4 |
| Ohio 1st | D+1 | Driehaus | Y | N | Y | 4 |
| Washington 3rd | EVEN | Baird | N | N | N | 3 |
| Ohio 16th | R+4 | Boccieri | Y | N | N | 2 |
| New Jersey 3rd | R+1 | Adler | N | N | N | 2 |
| Pennsylvania 12th | R+1 | Murtha | Y | N | Y | 2 |
| North Carolina 7th | R+5 | McIntyre | Y | N | N | 1 |
| North Carolina 8th | R+2 | Kissell | N | N | N | 1 |
| Indiana 8th | R+8 | Ellsworth | Y | Y | Y | 1 |
| Indiana 2nd | R+2 | Donnelly | Y | N | Y | 1 |
| North Carolina 2nd | R+2 | Etheridge | Y | N | Y | 1 |
| Michigan 8th | R+2 | Oberstar | Y | N | Y | 1 |
| Texas 27th | R+2 | Ortiz | Y | N | Y | 1 |
| Michigan 7th | R+2 | Peterson | Y | N | Y | 1 |
| Ohio 6th | R+2 | Wilson | Y | N | Y | 1 |
| Alabama 5th | R+12 | Griffith | Y | Y | N | 0 |
| Pennsylvania 4th | R+6 | Altmire | Y | N | N | 0 |
| Pennsylvania 17th | R+6 | Holden | Y | N | N | 0 |
| North Carolina 11th | R+6 | Shuler | Y | N | N | 0 |
| Tennessee 8th | R+6 | Tanner | Y | N | N | 0 |
| New Mexico 2nd | R+6 | Teague | Y | N | N | 0 |
| Pennsylvania 3rd | R+3 | Dahlkemper | Y | N | Y | 0 |
| Michigan 1st | R+3 | Stupak | Y | N | Y | 0 |
| Tennessee 6th | R+13 | Gordon | Y | Y | N | -1 |
| Arkansas 4th | R+7 | Ross | Y | N | N | -1 |
| Florida 24th | R+4 | Kosmas | N | N | N | -1 |
| New York 13th | R+4 | McMahon | N | N | N | -1 |
| North Dakota At-large | R+10 | Pomeroy | Y | Y | Y | -1 |
| Texas 23rd | R+4 | Rodriquez | Y | N | Y | -1 |
| Oklahoma 2nd | R+14 | Boren | Y | Y | N | -2 |
| Mississippi 1st | R+14 | Childers | Y | Y | N | -2 |
| New York 29th | R+5 | Massa | N | N | N | -2 |
| Virginia 2nd | R+5 | Nye | N | N | N | -2 |
| Minnesota 7th | R+5 | Peterson | N | N | N | -2 |
| Virginia 5th | R+5 | Perriello | Y | N | Y | -2 |
| Colorado 3rd | R+5 | Salazar | Y | N | Y | -2 |
| Arkansas 2nd | R+5 | Snyder | Y | N | Y | -2 |
| Utah 2nd | R+15 | Matheson | Y | Y | N | -3 |
| Kentucky 6th | R+9 | Chandler | Y | N | N | -3 |
| Florida 2nd | R+6 | Boyd | N | N | N | -3 |
| Colorado 4th | R+6 | Markey | N | N | N | -3 |
| Indiana 9th | R+6 | Hill | Y | N | Y | -3 |
| West Virginia 3rd | R+6 | Rahall | Y | N | Y | -3 |
| Alabama 2nd | R+16 | Bright | Y | Y | N | -4 |
| Georgia 8th | R+10 | Marshall | Y | N | N | -4 |
| Ohio 18th | R+7 | Space | Y | N | Y | -4 |
| South Carolina 5th | R+7 | Spratt | Y | N | Y | -4 |
| Arkansas 1st | R+8 | Berry | Y | N | Y | -5 |
| Pennsylvania 10th | R+8 | Carney | Y | N | Y | -5 |
| Louisiana 3rd | R+12 | Melancon | Y | N | N | -6 |
| South Dakota At-large | R+9 | Herseth-Sandlin | N | N | N | -6 |
| West Virginia 1st | R+9 | Mollohan | Y | N | Y | -6 |
| Tennessee 4th | R+13 | Davis | Y | N | N | -7 |
| Missouri 4th | R+14 | Skelton | Y | N | N | -8 |
| Virginia 9th | R+11 | Boucher | N | N | N | -8 |
| Idaho 1st | R+18 | Minnick | N | Y | N | -9 |
| Maryland 1st | R+13 | Kratovil | N | N | N | -10 |
| Mississippi 4th | R+20 | Taylor | Y | N | N | -14 |
| Texas 17th | R+20 | Edwards | N | N | N | -17 |
The formula I used takes district PVI as a starting point. Representatives from strongly Democratic districts generally have little excuse for voting against Health Care Reform. On the other hand, it doesn’t make much sense to waste resources primarying bad Democrats in places where a better Democrat is unlikely to win – we ought not to emulate the Club for Growth and Doug Hoffman.
So Democratic districts start off with a positive score equal to their PVI, and Republican districts start off with a negative score equal to their PVI. A bad representative from a D+5 district starts off with 5 primary points, while a bad representative from an R+5 district starts off with -5 primary points.
I added 3 points if the Representative voted in favor of the Stupak Amendment.
I added 6 points if the Representative voted in favor of the Republican Motion to Recommit. That vote gets more points because it is particularly odious – it was a vote to COMPLETELY KILL HEALTH CARE REFORM by sending it back to committee. That is pretty much the most perfidious vote that a Representative could cast, and is much worse than voting against final passage of the bill.
I finally added 3 points if the Representative voted againts final passage of the Health Care Reform bill.
HCR Primary Index = PVI + Stupak(3) + Recommit(6) + Passage(3)
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I’d say that any Democratic Representative with a positive HCR Primary Index score asked for a primary challenge. Not all will get one, and perhaps few would be defeated. I don’t pretend to dictate to the voters in those districts, but if I lived in one of those districts, I’d certainly vote in a primary against the bad incumbent. I suspect that many of the people who do live in those districts would as well. That’s Democracy, after all.
Perhaps some of these Representatives were legitimately voting the way their constituents wanted them to. If that’s the case, while I’m disappointed, I say fine. But if that’s the case, they should have little difficulty winning a primary campaigning on their Health Care Votes. That’s Democracy, after all.
Perhaps some of these Representatives were legitimately voting their consciences. If that’s the case, while I’m disappointed, I say fine. But if that’s the case, some of their constituents may wish to vote their own consciences in a primary against them. That’s Democracy, after all.
Perhaps some of the Representatives further up this list don’t really deserve a primary challenge, based on other issues. Perhaps some of the Representatives further down this list do deserve a primary challenge, based on other issues.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Louisiana 2nd | D+25 | Cao – R | Y | Y | Y | 34 |
It’s important that we keep in mind that while some Democrats voted the wrong way on Health Care, 177 out of 177 Republicans did as well. To remind us of that, I included Anh Joseph Cao on this list, even though the rest of the list, and this diary, is focused on Democrats. By applying the same neutral criteria to Cao that I applied to every bad Democrat, he comes out top on the list of Representatives who need to go. While Cao voted in favor of the final bill, he did so after it had already passed. He also voted in favor of the Stupak amendment, and voted to kill Health Care Reform entirely by voting for the motion to recommit. We should not pretend that Cao is in any way a good Representative. In fact, relative to his district, Cao is the worst Representative in Congress on Health Care. He can and will be replaced by a good Democrat in 2010. Not Cao, not Bill Jefferson, but a solid New Orleans Progressive who legitimately puts the people of that city first.
The same considerations apply to many other Republican representatives, especially the handful left in Democratic leaning districts, and those faux-“moderates” like Mike Castle and Mark Kirk who are running for Senate.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Alabama 7th | D+18 | Davis | Y | N | N | 24 |
Representative Artur Davis. You represent an African American majority district in Alabama, with lots of uninsured constituents. You also are running for Governor of Alabama.
More precisely, Artur Davis is a black man running for Governor in Alabama, second in racially polarized voting only to Mississippi. We can only guess that Davis harbors the delusional belief that his odious votes in favor of the Stupak Amendment and against final passage will cause Conservative white Republican Alabamians to vote for him. In other words, he thinks that he can do in Alabama what Harold Ford could not do in Tennessee. By all appearances, Artur Davis is deeply cynical and is a sad excuse for a human being. The best that can be said of Artur Davis is that at least he voted against the motion to recommit, but no Democrat ought to have voted for that. That is hollow praise. I can’t say that I’ll shed a tear when Davis loses massively among white voters in his gubernatorial race.
There will be no primary challenge in AL-7, because Davis is not running again. The people of AL-7 have an opportunity to select a much better Democratic Representative to replace him.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Pennsylvania 14th | D+19 | Doyle | Y | N | Y | 22 |
Representative Mike Doyle. You represent the city of Pittsburgh. Your district is ridiculously Democratic (D+19). I can sort of feel, partly, for Jason Altmire in that much more Republican district next to yours. But you?
Perhaps a great many Democratic voters in Pittsburgh agree with Doyle’s vote for the Stupak Amendment. That’s certainly plausible. Maybe even a large majority. But I bet that a number of his constituents do not. If they organize a primary and win, a legitimately pro-choice Democrat would have no difficulty winning PA-14. I’ll raise a Donna Edwards to your Al Wynn.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| California 43rd | D+13 | Baca | Y | N | Y | 16 |
Representative Joe Baca. You represent a strongly Democratic Hispanic majority part of San Bernadino County in California. You voted for the Stupak amendment.
Much the same considerations apply here is do to Boyle. The only difference is that his district has lots of white working class Catholics, while this district has lots of Latino Catholics. But a better Democrat would have no trouble winning a general election in this district.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Ohio 17th | D+12 | Ryan | Y | N | Y | 15 |
Representative Tim Ryan. I can believe that a great many of your constituents in Northeast Ohio agree with your vote on the Stupak Amendment. I doubt you will actually face a primary, and I doubt even more that you would lose one. But if a pro-choice Democrat unseated you in a primary, they could win here too.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| California 20th | D+5 | Costa | Y | Y | Y | 14 |
Representative Jim Costa. It looks like you are the second worst Representative in Congress on Health Care, relative to your district, after Joseph Cao. You are the worst Democrat in Congress on Health Care.
CA-20 voted 60-39 for Obama. CA-20 is based in California’s Central Valley, is majority Hispanic, and includes parts of Fresno and Bakersfield. Jim Costa voted for the GOP Motion to Recommit – Costa voted to completely kill Health Care Reform by sending it back to Committee. This is also the House equivalent of voting to filibuster Health Care Reform in the Senate. Maybe the people of CA-20 agree with the vote for the Stupak Amendment, but I am pretty sure they don’t agree with the vote to effectively filibuster Health Care Reform. What is the deal there? Does Jim Costa think that he can vote to filibuster, then vote to pass the bill, and that nobody will notice or care?
A far better Democrat than Jim Costa can win in CA-20.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Michigan 5th | D+11 | Kildee | Y | N | Y | 14 |
Representative Dale Kildee. Another Midwestern Catholic vote for the Stupak Amendment.
This district is safely Democratic. If I lived there, I’d vote for a better Democrat in a primary, and if they won, they’d win the general election. Are there any people in Flint that feel the same way?
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Illinois 3rd | D+11 | Lipinski | Y | N | Y | 14 |
Representative Dan Lipinski. Another Midwestern Catholic vote for the Stupak Amendment.
Lipinski only got 55% in his 2006 primary. Apparently he has not learned. This district is safely Democratic. If I lived there, I’d vote for a better Democrat in a primary, and if they won, they’d win the general election. Are there any people in Chicago that feel the same way? Some more good news is that Lipinski’s district can and should be redistricted into oblivion in 2010, though that’s not necessarily likely.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Massachusetts 9th | D+11 | Lynch | Y | N | Y | 14 |
Representative Stephen Lynch. Massachussetts? Really?
Perhaps on the basis of working class Catholic votes, this is the guy that most people in the district want. But I wonder what would happen in a Democratic primary. Win or lose, it would be Democracy in action.
Another thought occurs to me – MA is going to lose a seat in 2010 Congressional Reapportionment. Seems like this one might be the one to let go?
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Massachusetts 9th | D+11 | Lynch | Y | N | Y | 14 |
Representative Stephen Lynch. Massachussetts? Really? Boston? Really?
Boston?
Did I say Boston? Any progressives in Boston want a new job? This seat is calling.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| California 18th | D+4 | Cardoza | Y | Y | Y | 13 |
Representative Dennis Cardoza. Blue Dog from California. The same situation as fellow Californian Jim Costa, and I’d say that Dennis Cardoza is the 3rd worst Representative in Congress on the issue of Health Care Reform, relative to the district represented.
CA-18 voted 59-38 for Obama. Like CA-20, CA-18 is based in California’s Central Valley, and is majority/plurality Hispanic. and includes parts of Fresno and Bakersfield. Like Jim Costa, Dennis Cardoza voted for the GOP Motion to Recommit – Cardoza voted to completely kill Health Care Reform by sending it back to Committee. This is also the House equivalent of voting to filibuster Health Care Reform in the Senate. Maybe the people of CA-18 agree with the vote for the Stupak Amendment, but I am pretty sure they don’t agree with the vote to effectively filibuster Health Care Reform. What is the deal there? Does Dennis Cardoza think that he can vote to filibuster, then vote to pass the bill, and that nobody will notice or care?
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Ohio 9th | D+10 | Kaptur | Y | N | Y | 13 |
Representative Marcy Kaptur. Like Tim Ryan, I have a hard time being too hard on you. You are pretty good on other issues.
Still, your district could support a pro-choice Democrat.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Texas 16th | D+10 | Reyes | Y | N | Y | 13 |
Representative Silvestre Reyes. Well, at least you are not as bad as Henry Cuellar. But are you really the best Democrat we could get out of El Paso? I think not.
This district is safely Democratic. It would vote for a Pro-Choice Dem in a general election just as readily as it would vote for Reyes.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Rhode Island 2nd | D+9 | Langevin | Y | N | Y | 12 |
Representative James Langevin. OK, so I get that there are a lot of Catholics in Rhode Island. That’s fair. But not all of those are against Choice on abortion. Rhode Island is a pretty progressive place.
Can Rhode Island do better? REPUBLICAN Lincoln Chaffee was pro-choice, was he not?
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Massachusetts 2nd | D+9 | Neal | Y | N | Y | 12 |
Representative Richard Neal.
Perhaps on the basis of working class Catholic votes, this is the guy that most people in the district want. But I wonder what would happen in a Democratic primary. Win or lose, it would be Democracy in action.
Another thought occurs to me – MA is likely to lose a seat in 2010 Congressional Reapportionment. Seems like this one might be the one to let go, hmm? I guess Neal has to fight Lynch for that honor.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Ohio 10th | D+8 | Kucinich | N | N | N | 11 |
Representative Dennis Kucinich.
No reason to say anything here, people are going to disagree. I can see both sides.
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Texas 28th | EVEN | Cuellar | Y | Y | Y | 9 |
Representative Henry Cuellar.
The original Bush Dog Democrat. You voted just like Cao and the California Cardoza/Costa twins. No, I don’t think we can get rid of you, and trying might even cause a Republican to win. But voting for the GOP motion to recommit? Why don’t you just go ahead and join the Republican Party? What percentage of your constituents are uninsured? And you seriously voted for the GOP motion to recommit?
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| New York 20th | R+2 | Murphy | N | Y | N | 7 |
Representative Scott Murphy. NY-20. Sounds familiar. Hey, weren’t you the guy that won that special election in upstate New York in a district Obama won 51-48 by saying how much you were going to support President Obama?
And you not only voted AGAINST the Health Care Reform Bill, but even voted in FAVOR of the motion to recommit?
I’ll leave it to the people in NY-20, but I bet there are a lot of people there who volunteered to get you elected that are not going to want to do so again. I bet there are some of those who would support a primary opponent running against you, even at the possible risk of having a Republican like Tedisco win NY-20.
Oh yeah, and upstate New York is losing a lot of population. In redistricting, it would make a lot of sense to pack Upstate New York Republicans either NY-20, NY-23, NY-24, or NY-25 in order to make the other 3 more Democratic. I guess you want the GOP seat to be NY-20?
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| District | PVI | Rep. | Stupak | Recommit | Passage | HCR Primary Index |
| Georgia 12th | D+1 | Barrow | Y | N | N | 7 |
Representative John Barrow.
Well, it’s Georgia. And not Atlanta. I can’t really say I expected better. But I am disappointed. At least you are not so horrendous as to vote for the motion to recommit.
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OK, that’s as far as I am going to go down this list. I am enough of a political realist to know that by the time we start getting to the John Barrows of the world, we start to scrape the bottom of the barrel. At a certain point, it’s not worth focusing resources on primarying GOP districts in the South, and at some point it becomes a counter-productive Club for Growth fest. And against some incumbents in some districts, it is just not going to work.
There may be a few more slightly further down where a primary challenge might be productive. Baird in WA-03, for example?
But there are also some people further down the list that I personally would not mind seeing get primaried, even though primary opponents would be unlikely to win, and even though if they did win the seats would probably flip GOP. Collin Peterson, he of MN-07, springs to mind. And oh yeah, that Bart Stupak fellow?
But let’s not forget the Republicans, either. There are 177 too many of those left.
They could all be replaced by far superior Democrats.
He’s in a 45% black district (which has probably gotten blacker) that went for Obama by 9 points and was won by Al Gore.
would be pretty hard to get rid of. I’ve tried playing around with his district on DRA and there’s just no smooth way to get rid of it. It would be easier to get rid of Richard Neal by chopping off the Northeast part of John Olver’s district and sticking in Neal’s hometown of Springfield, but Olver will be 76 in 2012 while Neal will only be 63.
As for Jim Langevin, his position is nothing new. His predecessor, Bob Weygand, was also a pro-life Democrat (leading to a NY-23-esque situation when he ran against Linc Chafee for Senate in 2000, sans the third party conservative). In 2006, Brown professor Jennifer Lawless ran against Langevin on the abortion issue, but lost badly, in part because she had only moved to RI a few years prior. Pro-choice state rep Elizabeth Dennigan has announced a primary challenge to Langevin for 2010 but I believe she said she wouldn’t bring up the abortion issue. While she’s lived in RI for a while now she doesn’t live in the district, while Jim Langevin lives in Warwick, RI’s 2nd-biggest city and roughly 15% of the district’s population. Don’t count on him going anytime soon.
But you stopped your detailed analysis just before Kanjorski. His name stands out as one of the most important Democrats to primary, because he is a sucky candidate who was pretty lucky to ride the Obama wave to victory in 2008.
It would also be nice to primary Murtha to get rid of the stench of corruption.
I think that voting against the bill should count against Representatives more than voting for the Stupak amendment (voting for the Stupak amendment and against the bill, however, is odious), but you were the one to take the time and do the calculations, so kudos to you!
He’s high profile, has some ethics issues, out of step with his constituent, and primaries have a long history of success in Arkansas. If we could find a candidate, this one’s doable, especially now that Berry and Snyder left him out to dry.
and certainly very well done. So kudos to the author.
It’s worth noting that almost any Repub is going to automatically rack up 12 points regardless of district.
To talk about going after someone in a primary, I think their final score has to be at least a 12.
I find Cuellar and Lipinski particularly odious. Their districts could easily elect and re-elect someone much better. I would like to see serious primary challenges to them every election.
are Jim Costa and Dan Lipinski, if you look at the entirety of their record.
Costa could be hard to unseat because the demographics of his district suggest low turnout. Then again, maybe that would work in our favor.
Costa has been terrible on the Iraq War and continues to support an endless engagement there. He’s been terrible on the Patriot Act, voting to make it permanent and allowing for intelligence operations without oversight. He’s, oddly enough, been terrible about immigration, supporting the minute men more often than not.
I mean, the healthcare vote is a sort of peculiar aspect of his resume, but there is far more to dislike about Costa than just that.
As for Lipinski, being pro-life is one thing, being in favor of prayer in school, your endless support of the Iraq War, your support of the Patriot Act, your stance against immigration, and your vote on flag burning seal your fate to me. You represent a liberal district and you are a sure-fire moderate. Replace.