I tried out the new partisan data feature for Maryland in Dave’s App. I made an 8-0 Democratic Gerrymander. Just for kicks, I also made a 4-4 GOP Gerrymander, although there is no chance that the Republicans will control redistricting in Maryland. The Democratic gerrymander shamelessly aims to make every seat about as Democratic as the state of Maryland as a whole, while the GOP gerrymander aims to squeeze out the maximum number of lean-Republican districts, although it is not certain that Democratic incumbents would be defeated in all 4 seats.
8-0 Democratic Gerrymander
4-4 Republican Gerrymander
8-0 Democratic Gerrymander
MD-1 60-37 Obama
MD-1 contains all of the Eastern Shore except Cecil County (which you can argue is not really part of the “Eastern Shore” of Maryland). Then it jumps across the Chesapeake to Annapolis, and goes spiraling inland to pick up Democratic precincts in the DC suburbs. Kratovil should now be more worried about a primary challenge than the general election.
MD-2 59-38 Obama
I maintained the overall design of MD-2 and MD-3, giving each part of the Baltimore suburbs. MD-2 picks up Cecil County from MD-1. Ruppersburger remains just as safe.
MD-3 59-38 Obama
MD-3 combines part of Baltimore City and County with parts of Anne Arundel and Howard Counties. No real change for John Sarbanes.
MD-4 71-26 Obama; 50% Black
I tried to get the most I possibly could out of MD-4… The district is based in Prince George’s County, but now stretches through a very thin strip of land all the way to Garrett County in the far western corner of Maryland. Despite my best efforts and this district’s preposterous shape, I could not find a way to get it below 71% for Obama without bringing the African American percentage under 50%. Donna Edwards has nothing to worry about.
MD-5 62-36 Obama
MD-5 becomes a little less Democratic, mostly to help MD-1. But the overall shape of the district remains, and Hoyer is safe.
MD-6 59-39 Obama
Wave goodbye to Roscoe Bartlett (R). Most of his district is now in Montgomery County. A Democrat from Gaithersburg/Rockville should have little difficulty dispatching him.
MD-7 62-35 Obama; 50% Black
Although MD-7 is 50% Black, it only voted 62% for Obama. The white voters in the Baltimore Suburbs and Harford County are strongly Republican. Elijah Cummings ought to be fine, but he would be wise to make at least some effort to appeal to some white voters.
MD-8 60-37 Obama
Strongly Democratic Montgomery County dilutes GOP leaning areas of Howard, Baltimore, and Carroll Counties. Chris Van Hollen should be quite safe.
4-4 Republican Gerrymander
MD-1 56-41 McCain
This version of MD-1 is actually a bit more Democratic than the current version. But Frank Kratovil is unlikely to ever be truly safe in a 56-41 McCain district.
MD-2 52-45 McCain
It is possible that either Dutch Ruppersberger or Paul Sarbanes could win in this Baltimore Suburbs district, but MD-2 now leans GOP.
MD-3 77-21 Obama
MD-3 is a Central Maryland leftovers district, stretching from the DC suburbs to the Baltimore suburbs, taking the most Democratic areas that remain. This is essentially an open seat. Neither Paul Sarbanes or Steny Hoyer live in this district, though might potentially prefer running in MD-3 than the alternative of running in a GOP leaning district.
MD-4 89-9 Obama; 69% Black
This version of MD-4 packs Democratic and African American voters in Prince George’s County to just about the maximum possible extent. Donna Edwards is very safe, but what a waste of Democratic votes.
MD-5 51-46 McCain
All the most Democratic areas are taken out of MD-5, as it moves out of Prince George’s and further north in Anne Arundel County. Steny Hoyer could probably still win this version of MD-5, but he would have to campaign for it, and he would face continual challenges.
MD-6 55-42 McCain
MD-6 becomes less Republican as it gives up its areas around Baltimore to the 2nd District. Roscoe Bartlett would continue to win in this district, and when he retires another Republican would be favored over any Democrat.
MD-7 87-11 Obama; 64% Black
MD-7 packs Democratic votes very compactly in Baltimore. There are a lot of wasted Democratic votes in this district.
MD-8 71-26 Obama
MD-8 actually becomes a little bit less Democratic, but it fulfills its task of keeping the most Democratic areas of Montgomery County out of MD-6.
After having completed this exercise, what strikes me is that the GOP Gerrymander ends up being substantially more compact than the Democratic Gerrymander. While it could be a bit more compact in a few places, it is pretty close to what you would draw if you were basing a map solely on geography. This is a good illustration of the fact that Democratic voters are much more naturally concentrated than GOP areas. In areas where Democrats do the best, everyone is a Democrat (chiefly PGC & Baltimore City). While in the GOP’s best areas, a decent number of people have the sense to be vote Democratic. So overly compact districts tend to result in a few 80/20 Democratic seats and a bunch of 55/45 Republican seats.
I must ask what’s going on in District 4. Seems like bringing it all the way up to the panhandle was kind of unnecessary, considering how few people live there and it makes it look really screwed up. But I guess you wanted to include all of the immediate Washington metro area in one district. I would rather Edwards and Van Hollen both have 65% districts though (rather than Edwards having a 70% district), seeing as CVH will be Speaker in 10 years.
Interesting GOP map. Fortunately a heavily Dem legislature would never let that thru. And it actually would a bit of a gamble on their part:
As you acknowledge, Kratovil would have an easier time in that MD-1 than the one that exists.
A MD-6 that includes that much of MoCo, comes that close to Columbia, still includes all of rapidly blueing Frederick City, while shedding a decent chunk of Carroll County (the population in the Baltimore/Harford part of the present MD-6 is pretty negligible) isn’t going to stay a safe Republican district the way things are going.
Hoyer would probably still win that MD-5, especially with Annapolis City in there. And migration from PG is turning more and more of Charles blue.
MD-2 seems tailor made for a Bob Ehrlich redux, but I think Dutch is safe there otherwise.
I think if I were the GOP, I think I’d try lock three down. I’d create a western-based GOP district, a Shore-based GOP district, and something that looks like your MD-2 except I’d trim Towson, Pikesville, and Catonsville out and replace them with the most Republican territory in Anne Arundel County I could get in there.
Phil Andrews must be having wet dreams about your MD-06.
And I wouldn’t describe it as a Gerrymander. Bartlett, Edwards, Sarbanes, Cummings and Van Hollen would all be very safe. Kratovil’s district is about the same as before, but Rupperberger and Hoyer find themselves in much more competitive situations.
Details
District 1 – Frank Kratovil (D-Queen Anne’s)
80% White, 14% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian, 1% Other
McCain 57%, Obama 40%
District 2 – Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Baltimore County)
75% White, 15% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Hispanic, 1% Other
McCain 49%, Obama 48%
District 3 – John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore County)
48% White, 29% Black, 10% Asian, 10% Hispanic, 1% Other
Obama 72%, McCain 26%
District 4 – Donna Edwards (D-Prince George’s)
69% Black, 13% Hispanic, 12% White, 3% Asian, 1% Other
Obama 92%, McCain 7%
District 5 – Steny Hoyer (D-St. Mary’s)
71% White, 19% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% Other
Obama 50%, McCain 48%
District 6 – Roscoe Bartlett (R-Frederick)
85% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% Other
McCain 57%, Obama 40%
District 7 – Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore City)
64% Black, 28% White, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% Other
Obama 87%, McCain 11%
District 8 – Chris Van Hollen (D-Montgomery)
59% White, 13% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 10% Black, 1% Other
Obama 69%, McCain 29%
In a comment on my diary from yesterday, silver spring noted that some of the voting districts in Maryland changed names, which is weird but is what it is. This means that the numbers are off somewhat; how much I don’t know.
As people identify these issues and they (and I) come up with solutions (like mapping the districts to their former names or something), I will update the data and let you all know here on Swing State. One good thing, I think, is that you’ll be able to open the DRF you’ve created and see it with updated numbers, adjusting as you want; you won’t have to start all over.
Good job with all your work!