It’s not at all difficult to add a second (relatively) compact African American VRA district in South Carolina. The map below has two districts (SC-06 and SC-07) with an outright majority Non-White Hispanic Single-Race African American VAP:
As a consequence of adding a second African American VRA district, all 5 incumbent Republicans are made very safe. The main beneficiaries of this are Joe Wilson and Mick Mulvaney – the African American %s in their districts decline considerably. Jim Clyburn would probably run in the 6th District, since he lives in Columbia, and the 7th District would almost certainly elect another African American Democrat.
The two African American VRA districts meet a very high legal population % threshold – it is by no means settled that a majority African American VAP is actually legally required, but this map meets even that standard. White Non-Hispanics are only 43% of the total population in each district.
The two African American VRA districts could be made more compact if any or all of the following are true:
1) Hispanic African Americans are allowed to count towards the African American %.
2) Multi-Racial people who are part African American are allowed to count towards the African American %.
3) African Americans only have to be a majority of the total population, rather than the VAP.
4) African Americans only have to be a plurality of the district.
5) All minority groups combined count towards VRA status, and all that is necessary is that the White Non-Hispanic population
I will be surprised if the DOJ or a group like the NAACP does not sue to force a second such district to be created under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act/the Gingles test.
I mean, it’s still unfortunate that the Republicans would have a 5-2 advantage in a state where it should be more like 4-3.
Even if a second VRA district is not forced to be created, I think the GOP will necessarily stretch themselves think in some other districts that we could pick up in good years.
black population % in South Carolina is decreasing, I’d be surprised if the DoJ pushed for a second VRA district. Should current population trends continue, it would be hard to maintain two after 2020. But this is an excellent what-if map.
will do but if the adminstration is eager to push for the creation of new minority majority seats a good place to start would the state senate maps for NJ & VA. If one considers the congressional seats in this SC map to be compact. Then you certainly could have created additional minority majority seats for the state senate maps in NJ & VA. Since both of those maps favor the democrats I guess that’s why no one has suggested packing AA or hispanic voters in districts to create minority majority seats.
Yes VA is a VRA5 state so its map has to be pre-cleared and no problems are anticipated. I might add NJ is not a VRA5 state but VRA2 applies there as well. Yes VRA2 & VRA5 applies to state legislative maps as well as congressional maps.
I for one consider this SC map, while its an excellent map, clearly shows that compact is in the eye of the beholder. The AA majority % is only acheived in the two districts by dividing several cities and counties along racial lines. The whites go in one district and the blacks go in another. This is the type of creation that Shaw & other rulings dealt with. Its clearly what the courts had in mind as far as racial gerrymanders. I don’t believe the courts would force this map on SC.
I don’t think this type of map will be seen in SC. In my opinion the GOP will go 6R-1D and I don’t anticipate any court problems.