Politico, who last week broke the story of the (at the time seemingly improbable) possibility of Tim Griffin running against Vic Snyder in Arkansas’s 2nd District, now reports today that Griffin is running:
“The people of Central Arkansas deserve a congressman who shares their values and represents their views,” Griffin said in an e-mail to POLITICO.
“I am grateful and excited about the encouragement and support that I have received and look forward to discussing the many critical issues facing Arkansans, including health care, cap and trade and out of control spending.”
First, this has to be viewed as a big recruiting score for the NRCC. Griffin is well-known in Beltway circles (probably better known than he is back in Arkansas), as he was briefly the U.S. Attorney in Arkansas’s Eastern District (he took over for Bud Cummins, one of the disappeared USAs from the U.S. Attorney dismissal scandal) and before that he was right-hand-man to Karl Rove. Vic Snyder ran without GOP opposition in 2008, so even getting someone to show up here, let alone someone with nimble political skills and fundraising connections, is a victory for the GOP.
Still, a few things still aren’t computing for me, here. Griffin had considered running for the Senate seat that Blanche Lincoln holds, but decided against it. Despite the fact that he’s never run for an elective office before, conventional wisdom dictated at the time that he’d be a better bet than any of the gaggle of nobodies running for the GOP Senate nod, and yet he demurred. And there were certainly warning signs at that time that Lincoln might be vulnerable (since confirmed in recent polling). Also, Snyder isn’t a pushover by any means; he’s been in the House since 1996 and has rarely faced opposition, let alone meaningful opposition. Snyder’s bankroll is notoriously small ($12K CoH in June), but that’s because he just as notoriously doesn’t fundraise in off year elections… largely because he’s never had to. Add on top of that, this is Arkansas’s most favorable district to Dems (at R+5), an urban district (Little Rock) where the bottom fell out for Dems much less in the 2008 election than the more rural 1st and 4th.
So why would Griffin turn down a Senate race that he was originally highly touted for, in order to take on what should be a much more difficult and simultaneously less prestigious race? Maybe there’s a working assumption here that Snyder (unlike Lincoln) either can’t or won’t fundraise when facing a well-funded challenger, or otherwise will falter when facing someone who knows what he’s doing. Either that, or Griffin decided this summer, what with the changing political tides, to run after all — but the NRSC, seemingly satisfied with the candidacy of state Sen. Gilbert Baker, boxed him out, leaving him looking a little further down the totem pole. Or there’s one final possibility: Griffin, who cut his teeth doing opposition research for the RNC, knows something else about Snyder that apparently no one else knows.
(UPDATE: Here’s a nice 2008 piece from Glenn Greenwald with some details on Griffin’s backstory, especially his behind-the-scenes involvement in the 2000 and 2004 vote counts… and his relationship with Politico itself, which may explain his choice of venue for his announcement.)
RaceTracker: AR-02
A U.S. Senate seat is a higher visibility, easily nationalized race. National media pays attention to the individual personalities in Senate contests in a way they do not in House races, and the party machines and donor bases involve themselves more deeply as well. If I were advising Tim Griffin, I’d have told him to go for the House first, slink around there until the stench of Rove loses its potency, and then try to move up. Lincoln isn’t getting any younger, and should be at least as vulnerable in seven years as she will be next year (Arkansas’ demographics and political culture are moving against Democrats, as the yellow-dog FDR generation dies off).
Tim Griffin, despite his other advantages, is still too radioactive to go for the Senate now. I might be surprised that he went for Vic Snyder rather than another district, but going for the House rather than the Senate seems wise.
The bottom didnt fall out too much in AR-2.
AR-1, 2, and 4 all went for Bush by 3-4% margins in 2004. Obama ended up losing AR-1 and AR-4 by 21% and 19% respectively while he only lost AR-2 by 10%.
Just thought some people would want to know the numbers as I went to look them up right away.
It’s too bad Snyder boxed himself in and probably cant bother fundraising for the next three months without getting bad press. Anyone know what his exact statements have been on not fundraising? Maybe he hasnt boxed himself in at all.
I am still not worried about Snyder. Griffin isn’t all that well known or prominent among the average electorate, he mostly focuses in higher up party politics and he’s not starting off with a big strength having been completely out of touch for some years. I think he must be wagering on the improving electoral conditions and some kind of KO on healthcare that will help lead into a rout, highly unlikely. Still he must have delayed on Lincoln and now can’t get back in. Besides that Lincoln is a fundraising juggernaut as far as Arkansas politics go.
I remember the last time Republicans had a highly touted candidate running against Snyder, 2004. They had a State Representative and prominent State House Minority leader allied with Mike Huckabee running a well funded and nationally backed campaign, hitting Snyder very hard on coureageous votes against amendments to ban flag burning and gay marriage and an even more courageous vote against the Iraq war, against the all-powerful Wal-Mart, against drilling in ANWR, he even drew the ire of the NRA in that race. And he won 58-42. People appreciate politicians with actual principles. He is a good politician I think because he grew up and went to college in Oregon and wasn’t influenced by the corrupt blue-dogish race politics of the 60s and 70s.
If things keep going bad for Democrats, I think this can certainly be a race. Another race like NC-SEN that probably is reliant on the national mood.