Rasmussen (9/30):
Beau Biden (D): 42
Mike Castle (R): 47
Undecided: 6Beau Biden (D): 49
Christine O’Donnell (R): 40
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4.5%)
These are the best numbers yet for Beau in a head-to-head against Castle. Back in March, Public Policy Polling had Castle up by 8 points, and a debatable Susquehanna Research poll from May had Biden trailing by 21 points.
Biden’s back from Iraq, and everyone — Castle, included, it seems — is waiting for him to make the first move. There have been some mixed signals out of Delaware on Biden’s intentions, but the overwhelming sentiment is that he’ll jump into the race soon. So what’ll it be for Castle: retiring to catch some rays in Florida or jumping into a Senate campaign?
But, it’s still not great news when even Christine O’Donnell can keep a Biden under 50%.
I also think we can possibly downplay the fact that Castle has won every election since 1966. William Roth had a similar record, but Carper took care of that.
Overall, my feeling is that Castle will take a pass on this race.
What I find so surprising is that the Indies are breaking heavily to the GOP. That bothers me, but hopefully Beau can introduce himself as a reasonable candidate for US Senator. I’m pretty sure he will be a great US Senator.
Now THAT’S scary, and great time too cause Halloween is coming up.
I feel really good about this race.
waiting for Biden to make the first move.
Seems to be implying this:
If it’s a competitive race where Castle would actually have to do some hard campaigning (against Biden), he’d pass on being a Senator?
Whereas if it’s an easy cakewalk race where he doesn’t have to campaign hard (with no Biden), he’d be willing to be a Senator.
That’s would be reminiscent of that Kentucky guy: I do not need the U.S. Senate.
(I’m assuming that he isn’t interested in reelection to the House anymore)
If Castle announces first, Biden runs for re-election. If Biden announces first, Castle retires.
Isn’t the rumor that Tom Carper may not run for re-election in 2012? In that case, perhaps Biden will run then.