NV-Sen/Gov: More Lousy Numbers for the Reid Boys

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (10/6-8, likely voters, 8/17-18 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (38)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 48 (49)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (40)

Sue Lowden (R): 49 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Hm, you mean that parading around the state with Sarah Palin’s father didn’t result in any Tarkmentum? That’s a head-scratcher. But maybe that sort of thing will play better in the GOP primary:

Sue Lowden (R): 23 (14)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 21 (33)

Sharron Angle (R): 9 (5)

Bill Parson (R): 1

Robin Titus (R): 1

Mike Wiley (R): 1

Undecided: 44 (47)

(MoE: ±6%)

Oh, I… guess not.

Anyhow, the general election numbers speak for themselves. But at least Harry has company even further down the barrel: while his 38-51 favorable rating is bad, at least it’s not John Ensign bad (23-43) or Jim Gibbons bad (14-51). In fact, it’s too bad that Ensign’s term isn’t up next year, because Nevadans apparently can’t wait to kick his sorry ass to the curb: his re-elects are at an abysmal 22%, with 44% saying they’ll vote to eject him from the Senate.

And how about that gubernatorial race? Mason-Dixon looked at a number of scenarios for that contest, too:

Rory Reid (D): 49 (47)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 37 (35)

Rory Reid (D): 33 (32)

Brian Sandoval (R): 50 (49)

Oscar Goodman (I): 36

Rory Reid (D): 27

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 24

Oscar Goodman (I): 33

Rory Reid (D): 25

Brian Sandoval (R): 33

In the GOP primary, Sandoval beats Gibbons by a 41-20 margin. It’s hard to imagine Gibbons finding a way to claw back from oblivion, but it may be amusing to watch him try.

At this point, though, Democrats might be better off asking Goodman, the colorful mayor of Las Vegas, to enter the Democratic gubernatorial primary. He’s the most popular pol in the state (or more accurately, the most popular dude tested by Mason-Dixon), with a surprising 49-9 favorable rating. Rory Reid, meanwhile, is saddled with a 21-29 rating off the starting blocks — which is no match for Sandoval’s shiny 38-7. Yet, Democrats seem content to let Rory take a crack at bat, even when the evidence suggests that Harry is displeased with his son’s efforts to climb the ladder at such an inopportune time. I don’t think it would be too much of a challenge for Goodman, or anybody else with talent, to dispose of Rory in a Democratic primary. Unfortunately, no hypothetical Dem primary match-ups were tested this time around.

22 thoughts on “NV-Sen/Gov: More Lousy Numbers for the Reid Boys”

  1. the idea of second-stringers like Tarkanian and Lowden actually beating Harry Reid, I have to admit that the governor race is shaping up to be a massive clusterfuck.  I don’t believe for one second that if Goodman runs as an independent, that Sandoval would get any less than 40%.  Unless Goodman is able to consolidate the Democratic vote and leave Rory Reid with under 20% total, it’s looking like Sandoval is going to waltz into the mansion, probably by double digits, whether he faces one or two general election opponents.

    Of course, Goodman may just decide to run as a Democrat (though he’s given no indication of doing so) and take out Reid in the primary, in which case everyone will breathe a sigh of relief.

  2. Run as a democrat, easily win the primary, likely win the general…. and be viewed as a savior.

    Run as an independant, anything could happen — except a Rory win.

  4. At this early stage, how was Daschle doing back in 2003?  

    I think that Reid has as a floor 40% of the vote.  The bad thing is that about 45-48% are solidly against his bid for re-election.

  5. Why wasn’t Nevada State Senator Mark Amodei tested in the primary and general election senate matchups?  The other GOP candidates for Reid’s seat seem inexperienced and controversial compared to Amodei.

  6. This has gotta be the biggest head scratcher of the cycle.

    How old is he?  His wikipedia page doesnt say.

  8. NCAA investigating RSCC for recruiting violations.

    Real concern is Steve Austin’s boss. Understand he has Six Million Dollars to spend.

  10. How on Earth is Sue Lowden suddenly doing better?

    In the past two weeks, she’s publicly defended her ties to the unpopular John Ensign and been revealed to be a supporter of the hugely-unpopular Yucca Mountain waste dump….

    And her numbers improved…? Weird.

Comments are closed.