Using Dave’s Application, I have drawn a redistricting plan for Oregon. The state will either keep the current five seats or may gain one seat in 2012. This plan is drawn for six seats. I have seen several other proposals for a six-seat Oregon plan; however, those plans were either quite gerrymandered and/or were drawn to elect four Democrats and two Republicans.
In this plan, the districts are very compact and the plan is designed to elect five Democrats and one Republican. County lines are used as the demarcation for districts to the fullest extent possible.
MAPS:
DISCUSSION OF DISTRICTS:
District 1 – Portland and Coastal Oregon
New district: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (current district: Obama 61%, McCain 36%)
David Wu lives in Portland, and about 45% of his new district is in Multnomah County. He currently represents areas of west Portland. Additional parts of Portland are added (a southern area currently a part of OR-5, and parts of north and northeast Portland currently a part of OR-3). The remainder of the new district includes Columbia and Clatsop Counties, which Wu also currently represents, as well as all of Oregon’s other coastal counties (Tillamook, Lincoln, Coos and Curry), coastal communities of two inland counties (Florence in Lane Co. and Reedsport in Douglas Co.), and Josephine Co. in southern Oregon. The Democratic percentage goes up a notch, and Wu is set to go.
District 2 – eastern Oregon
New district: Obama 41%, McCain 56% (current district: Obama 43%, McCain 54%)
This district is designed to remain the one Republican district in the state. The new district includes 18 counties in their entirety (17 voted for McCain, while Obama won Wasco with 52%) as well as the most GOP parts of Clackamas County. The incumbent, Greg Walden, lives in Hood River, but that 64% Obama county is no longer in the district. The Republican percentage here goes up a notch.
District 3 – Portland and environs
New district: Obama 70%, McCain 28% (current district: Obama 71%, McCain 26%)
Earl Blumenauer’s Portland-based district remains largely intact. 67% of the new district is in Multnomah, while the rest includes all of Hood River Co. and part of Clackamas (the southern boundary of the new OR-3 in Clackamas corresponds very closely to the current southern boundary of OR-3). The Democratic percentage goes down ever so slightly, but remains at a very comfortable 70% Obama level.
District 4 – Eugene and southern Oregon
New district: Obama 54%, McCain 43% (current district: Obama 54%, McCain 43%)
The new OR-4 contains Lane, Douglas and Jackson Counties, almost in their entirety. The only discrepancy is that coastal communities in Lane and Douglas become part of OR-1 — this works out perfectly in terms of making each district equal in population and also in terms of keeping all coastal communities together. Btw, does anybody know why coastal communities like Florence and Reedsport are part of otherwise inland counties, it doesn’t seem to fit the pattern of other coastal areas in Oregon which form their own counties, but I’m sure there are historical reasons (?) The new district is almost exactly the same as the current one in terms of partisanship (and just like the current OR-4, went barely for John Kerry in 2004). Not sure if Peter DeFazio is running for re-election, but if he does, he is set to go. If not, other Democrats should be very competitive here.
District 5 – Salem and Willamette Valley
New district: Obama 54%, McCain 43% (current district: Obama 54%, McCain 43%)
The new district includes Marion, Benton and Polk Counties in their entirety as well as suburban parts of Clackamas Co. south of Portland (Lake Oswego, West Linn, Oregon City and Canby home of incumbent Kurt Schrader). The new district is exactly the same as the current one in terms of political preference.
District 6 – Washington and Yamhill Counties
New district: Obama 58%, McCain 39% (current district does not exist)
The new OR-6 corresponds almost perfectly to Washington and Yamhill Counties. To make the population perfectly equal, two precincts in Multnomah are added. Apparently this area has experienced high population growth over the last decade, and if Oregon gains a seat in 2012, it can easily be drawn here. The new district, if created here, would be one that is quite Democratic. The territory here is currently represented by David Wu, but the new OR-1 is designed for him; not sure who could run in the new OR-6 (?).
That’s my plan for Oregon. As always, I welcome comments and suggestions. Thanks.
on the 2004 map. The Presidential race this year was something of an exception, and the downballot races were considerably closer.
How likely is it that Oregon will gain a seat?
Democrats lose your first and 4th first bad election, keeping all of Douglas is a baaad idea and Jackson is not reliably Democratic, and your first is too dependent on the outer Portland suburbs dumping a strong margin on the Democrat.
it looks like the Democratic districts taken together are just a few points more Democratic than the state as a whole. Supposing that’s right, and additionally supposing that swings are relatively even within a state between elections (a bad supposition, but useful), you’ve carved out a new state that in an open seat race, gives Dems about an 8 point advantage (just a rough estimate based on flipping back through Dave Leip’s site and looking at recent statewide races in Oregon).. Not a bad place to start. But here’s the question: faced with a 54/46 D state standing on its own, would you feel comfortable trying to draw a Congressional map that gave Dems all of the seats? I think most people would find that to be a fairly risky experiment, especially because partisan strength is never distributed evenly.
For my own comfort, I’d want a predictable Democratic margin of at least 15-20 points before I would consider trying to take everything. So the first question is: can we squeeze more Republicans into the second district?
I like this map, similiar to one I drew with colored pencils and a map.
There are a few possible candidates in OR-6:
Republicans
State Sen. Bruce Starr
County commish Tom Brian
Democrats
Sen. Mark Hass
Sen Richard Devlin
Rep. David Edwards
Labor Commish Brad Avakian
Former Sen Ryan Deckert
Commish Desari Strader
Senator Suzanne Bonamici
and many more…
For have 6 dem districts maximizating the difference Obama-McCain for the district with less difference, you must find all the districts have the same difference.
Mathematically, if your data are right, and im sure they are, because you work with high detail level, the aproximate expected value for the 6 districts would be:
56,6 % Obama
40,6 % Obama
That only assuming all your 6 districts have the same population, or better, the same population with right of vote. You can make the little correction. The numbers would have a very little change.
We can think this level of difference is sufficent for afford a redistricting without red district? Here can be the doubt.
If the answer is yes, and you try find the 6-0 for dems, you should find aproximatelly all they have a 56-57% of vote for Obama and a 40-41% for McCain. Not more and not less.
Your work again is really good. Congratulations.