With the news earlier in the week that Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner had sacked her campaign finance staff (and her declining to leak numbers to the press), the bad news was pretty clearly telegraphed. Those numbers are available now, though, and, well, the scope of the badness is still pretty impressive:
Brunner raised only $147,000 for the third quarter, and spent $201,000 – well more than she brought in. That 136 percent burn rate leaves her campaign nearly bankrupt with only $111,000 cash-on-hand.
Remember that, contrary to what you might expect, she’s operating without an EMILY’s List endorsement, so she doesn’t have a nationwide base to draw on. Her primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, isn’t exactly tearing things up on the fundraising front either, but he’s up to a 14:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Brunner. The clock seems to be ticking louder on her Senate bid. With Brunner’s ally Marilyn Brown recently jumping out of the Secretary of State race, does that foreshadow Brunner (contrary to her many protestations) downshifting to a re-election bid for her current job?
RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen
No need for comparison with her predecessors. Just by herself, how good is she?
What a disappointment. Many progressives thought she was a young, fresh face in Ohio politics, but if she can’t raise the cash she’s not going anywhere. That’s a fact.
Looks like Lee Fischer’s going to be the nominee.
Burris’ people?
Look, I know she is popular with the netroots and she may well make a better senator but she is hurting the chances of taking this seat the longer she stays in. Fisher will have to spend to beat her and the result will be a large cash deficit vis a vis Portman. Perish the thought she actually somehow pulls out the primary because she would get absolutely crushed in the general. Remember the DSCC won’t be able to bail her out when it has vulnerable incumbents to defend in CT, PA, NV, CO, AR, DE, IL etc. And not to mention the importance of holding her current job.
She needs to endorse Fisher, run for reelection, and focus on the 2014 Governor’s race.
a candidate before looking over their full profile. I think a lot of people here assumed that she would use the netroots to gain money and have EMILY’s List to pull her through. It just doesn’t work that way. National organizations work best when they coordinate with a good fundraiser and dump enough funds in their coffers to “put them over the top” – that is, give them enough of a CoH advantage down the stretch that the opposing campaign can’t possibly keep up to pay for advertisements, direct mailing and experienced staff. It was the Democrats that did this to great effect in 2006 and 2008. Meanwhile, the NRCC was essentially using their funds to “bail out” candidates that were financially floundering so they can keep pace. We all know how that worked out. That’s probably why EMILY’s List didn’t endorse Brunner – their rule is that a candidate has to be able to raise enough on their own, and it was clear from the beginning Brunner couldn’t do it and it probably saved the organization from wasting millions.
An aside – as someone whose worked on finance staffs before, I also get irritated when folks are so quick to blame the fundraising team for a poor showing. While they are partial to blame, it’s unfair to put so much on them. A good staff cannot compensate for a crappy candidate that can’t or won’t fundraise. As a candidate, Brunner has proven herself to be a bad fundraiser. Some candidates are great at doing calltime and putting in the work, others not so much. They are the ones ultimately responsible for their fundraising fate.
WTF. I mean, just WTF.
Now those firings are explained big time.
I never had a dog in this fight, but Brunner really needs to get out now – she’s only devaluing her future cred by staying in past this point. She should focus on succeeding Strickland in 2014.
okay, add me to the list of people hoping she downgrades to run for re-election as SoS.
That could be a soft landing spot for her.
I’ve been backing Brunner ever since the beginning of this race, as I think of her as a sound individual who’s done a phenomenal job as a statewide elected official. It’s unfortunate that it’s come to this. Now I’m wondering if diving out of the way of Fisher and keeping her current job is the right move. I just have a LOT of concerns about whether Fisher is electable in the general election.
If Ganley were to somehow beat out Portman in the Republican primary, honestly, I’m probably voting for Ganley over Fisher. Fisher just doesn’t impress me, at all.
I’ve supported Brunner from the beginning, and I will continue to do so. She’s a strong progressive, a dynamic person, and would make a great senator. While I have never said and will never say that Fisher is a bad guy or a complete jackass like Lieberman, I’m just not a fan to make a long story short. Even if this does head south for her, I’ll be on her team until the last dog dies.
That said, I’m still not convinced this is over. Fisher’s fundraising has gone from the one million mark (most of which he managed to max out his donors on and thus was limited on what he could spend in the primary) and a lot of people, including myself and the folks over at buckeyestate predicted his fundraising would slack as time went on. Well, that happened-look at his current fundraising. The Fisher strategy has, to this point, been about reacting to whatever Brunner was doing and trying to push her out early with big machine backing and fundraising. That’s a risky strategy. The Brunner campaign is at it’s lowest point. She might not be able to recover. But there is something to be said for tenacity. If she sticks it out and gets a better fundraising team, she can pull off a come back.
Either way, I believe in this woman and will do so even if she loses. I still think she’s going to pull off an upset though. So I either end up looking like a wise man or a crazy person in the end, and I think I’ll be quite happy as either one.