Here is a bipartisan redistricting of Alabama with a slight Democratic lean. My goal was to keep the representation at 4-3 Republican. I know Bobby Bright is a Conservative blue dog so I gave him a heavily Black district. This should make his voting record more Liberal or a Black candidate could easily challenge him in a primary and win. At the same time, I kept Artur Davis’s district majority Black to protect his sucessor if he vacates his seat to run against Richard Shelby. I thought a 4-3 Democratic map would be too risky and too grotesquely gerrymandered. As for the four Republicans, they are all safer than they used to be, including Mike Rogers. I had to make some sacrifices but I thought it would be better if we had 2 solid seats and 1 shaky one instead of just one solid seat and two shaky ones. I still was unable to strengthen Griffith because I could not go Cleo Fields and send a finger down to the Black belt. Still, I could not avoid an extremely grotesque gerrymander but there have been worse. Here are the maps:
This link is for the current map of Alabama http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F…
1st District Jo Banner (R) Blue
Yes, this district grows more convoluted. I added Covington, Geneva counties and Houston Counties to the east which are heavily Republican. I removed Monroe County which leans Republican but has some Democratic areas. The main change to this district was sending a finger from Bobby Bright’s district down to Mobile to take in Black precincts. I kept in Republican parts of Mobile so I probably kept Banner’s home in here. I kept his district contiguous by water with Mobile Bay. The courts may object to this district but since it gets more Republican, Banner should be happy. McCain probably won 70% of the vote here, up from 61% in the old district. Demographics are 16% Black and 77% White. Status is Safe Republican.
2nd District Bobby Bright (D) Green
He keeps his Montgomery County home base but besides that, his district completely changes. I removed heavily Republican southeastern Alabama from his district. I replaced it with all of Montgomery County and some Democratic counties currently in the 3rd such as Macon and the 7th such as Dallas. Yes, this district is the culprit of the Mobile County finger. I sent up the finger to Talladega to stregthen the 2nd and 3rd districts for their respective parties. Overall, I wanted to knock down two birds with one stone in this district. Not only would there be another Black majority district in Alabama that was heavily Democratic, Bobby Bright will have a tough time holding onto the seat if a Black candidate challenges him in the primary. Unless Steve Cohen from Memphis decided to move here and run, Bright should probably lose. A possible candidate would be the Liberal Black mayor of Mobile, Sam Jones. He is pretty old but he was also the first Black mayor of Mobile. Overall, this district looks set to change. Obama probably won 67% of the vote here. Demographics are 57% Black and 38% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
3rd District Mike Rogers (R) Purple
To protect the 2nd district, I had to stregthen Rogers because it was impossible to make the 2nd district safe and keep the 3rd vulnerable. Rogers won only 53% of the vote in 2008 against Democrat Joshua Segall so Rogers should be thrilled with the new plan. I made some drastic changes to protect him by removing heavily Democratic Montgomery, Macon and part of Russel Counties. I added heavily Republican counties to the south of the old district. As a bonus, I removed Segall’s home in Montgomery into the 2nd so Rogers now has no strong challenger. Just to shake Rogers up, I removed his home and put it in the 4th district. Overall, I reduced the Black percentage from 33% to 22%, so McCain win to probably 66% of the vote here. Demographics are 22% Black and 72% White. Status is Safe Republican.
4th District Rodney Aderholt (R) Red
I made some minor changes to the district but McCain still crushed Obama here. I removed Cullman and Blount Counties, both areas where residents of Birmingham are moving. More than 70% of the old district’s residents lived in rural areas and more do now. I added Calhoun and Clerburne Counties, both rural and heavily Republican. Those counties explain the makeup of the entire district. McCain probably won 73% of the vote here, a bit lower than the current percentage but not much different. Demographics are 8% Black and 85% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
5th District Parker Griffith (D) Yellow
This was the district that is closest to its current form. I could not move it at all because this was the safest district I could make for Griffith. I hope we can keep him and if he survives 2010, he probably will keep winning. The problem is that in 2008 when he was elected, there was high Black turnout. In 2010, it should be normal unless Artur Davis runs for U.S Senate. Since Blacks are only 17% of the district’s population, they do not make a big impact. I want most blue dogs to become Liberals but Griffith should remain as Conservative as he wants, he is another vote for a Democratic speaker. McCain probably won 61% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Lean Democrat.
6th District Spencer Baucus (R) Teal
On the most part, I was able to leave Baucus alone. His old district was the most Republican district in the U.S in 2008 and should be even more so. I removed Chilton and Coosa Counties which are Republican but not as Republican as Cullman and Blount Counties which I put into the district. I pushed this district further out of slow growing Jefferson County so overall, I reduced the Black percentage from 11% to 8%. McCain probably won 80% of the vote here. Demographics are 8% Black and 85% White. Status is Safe Republican.
7th District Artur Davis (D) Gray
Davis is currently the only Black member of Congress in Alabama. He may no longer be if he gets the nomination to become Governor in 2010. I feel that no one has viewed Davis as a formidable candidate. He might appeal to some white voters because he is pretty Conservative on a few issues. He could be the Harold Ford of Alabama without the corrupt family background. In Tennessee, Ford lost to moderate (for the South) Republican Bob Corker. Shelby is a Conservative and a turncoat which he probably could not use to his advantage. If Davis can bring Black turnout up to 30%, he would have to win about 30% of the white vote to win. In Alabama, this appears hard to do but Davis has a shot. Back to the district, I barely kept the 7th district majority Black because I had to trade some areas such as Hale County with the 2nd and I took in more of Jefferson County for population purposes. Even with the reduced Obama percentage, I expect Davis or his replacement to win. Obama probably won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 51% Black and 44% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.
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Believe it or not, Ds currently control the legislature. For the moment, Davis is actually polling well for the 2010 Gov election, ref http://www.politicalparlor.net…
It shows Davis at 44-45% against several Rs in the low to mid 30s.
(Disclaimer, I couldn’t find direct data from Capital Survey Research, and don’t know the credibility of the linked blog.)
Put the Democratic areas from the first into the second and and the Republican areas from the second to the first and leave the third as is so that Democrats could potentially hold a 4-3 majority?
Democrats should have a big say in how the new map is drawn so this might not be so unreasonable.
What’s probably a better idea is to make his district less brutally red, while also weakening Mike Rogers’s hold on his district.
that Griffith is a vote for Pelosi. Because he announced earlier this year that he wouldn’t vote for her for Speaker again. http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
Davis is running for Governor and has been for awhile.
This level of gerrymandering is not necessary in AL-2. You can get two black majority districts without northern tentacle of AL-2.
Something like this would be a bipartisan incumbent protection map, if Bobby Bright wins in 2010. If he doesn’t, which I consider the overwhelmingly likely scenario, this is a Democratic gerrymander (or perhaps one that might be forced by the Obama Admin using the VRA).
I support Bright for one reason, so the map above could be justified as bipartisan.
As far as Parker Griffith, I’m rooting for any Repub who opposes him. He is a cancer pure and simple. If Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, or Sean Hannity ran in AL-5, I would even strongly support them.
but he had the opportunity, as the nonpartisan mayor of Montgomery, to just waltz in to Congress as a Republican, and had a safe seat for life. Instead, he chose the tough route of trying to win a R+16 seat as a Democrat.
but this is not a good redistricting based on geography.
i think that it should pretty much stay as it is right now except for AL-03 getting some of AL-04 blue and giving up some of the red to AL-04. we can win AL-03 and that really already is the 2nd most Democratic district in the state.
leave the 2nd and 5th alone. No dem other than Bright can win AL-02 and AL-05 is what it is.
The 7th should always be an African American seat.
Since when did the Democratic Party become one when moderates and conservatives who attack or question the mainline party dogma or kicked out? That’s a slippery slope and it leads directly to where the Republicans are now and destroys any hope of a strong national coalition.
I find it scary that you refer to moderates with principles who follow those principles, if only partly to keep good aesthetics at home in districts, that, as the diarist noted, would normally elected hardcore Conservative Republicans, as a cancer. You are no different than the RedState blokes backing Hoffman because Scozzafava seems a bit to moderate.
Still, its utterly ridiculous, they shouldn’t have to shut up, my Democratic party doesn’t gag its members in policy debates, I don’t know about yours, I think it would get about 20% of the vote.
One question, the tendril in AL-2 that snaked into AL-3, how essential is that? a 57% AA population is pretty satisfactory and if that tendril could be eliminated and still maintain a 51% AA district, then get rid of it and make something a little more sensible looking. I think that one tendril the only thing that makes this map not passable.
But alas, check out my last redistricting with my big ridiculous tendril for MN-7 (although it was needed to make an Obama district while that 57% could come down a bit and still be safe.)
I tried but ran out of time studying but will try again soon. My thoughts were totally rid the 1st of every black voter and put them in the 2nd, drop the 7th down to 50% or so black and make the 2nd at least 40% black AND someone make the 3rd at least 40% black (40 percent black is around the magic number according to most political scientists on the optimal number of black voters in a district without VRA constraints in an area where white voters vote for the GOP huge). Of course the 5th would be left as is and hope for a Democratic hold with little redistricting help.
Most of NY-23 hasn’t elected a D to Congress for well over a century.