A popular feature on the last few big election days has been county baselines — in other words, using previous electoral data to project what Democrats need to break in each of a state or district’s counties in order to squeak across the finish line in total. I’m using 2008 presidential data, which may not exactly reflect today’s turnout (for instance, there may be less turnout in certain corners of New Jersey among infrequent voters whose 2008 participation was Obama-driven — non-white voters in Newark or college students in New Brunswick — which would serve to make Essex and Middlesex Cos. a slightly smaller percentage of today’s statewide totals), but I don’t want to get too fancy trying to weight for those kinds of problems.
Unfortunately, today’s two big-ticket races are particularly difficult, because they both hinge on third-party candidates (or second-party, in the case of Dede Scozzafava). With New Jersey, my best guess for a squeaking-across-the-finish line model for a Jon Corzine victory would be around 45/44/10, and seeing as how Chris Daggett doesn’t have a clearly defined geographic base, I’m just assigning him 10% in each county across the boards. At any rate, this should help advanced poll-watchers here measure whether Corzine is on track as various county results roll in, although you’ll probably need to make mental adjustments to account for any county-by-county fluctuation for Daggett, as well as that polls have shown that Corzine is likely to overperform in the north a bit and Christie is likely to overperform in the south.
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote | What we need to break 45% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 45/44/10 | 57/42 |
| Bergen | 10.7 | 42/47 | 54/45 |
| Middlesex | 8.3 | 48/40 | 60/38 |
| Essex | 8.2 | 64/25 | 76/23 |
| Monmouth | 8.1 | 35/53 | 47/51 |
| Ocean | 7.1 | 28/60 | 40/58 |
| Morris | 6.4 | 33/55 | 45/53 |
| Camden | 6.1 | 55/33 | 67/31 |
| Burlington | 5.8 | 47/42 | 59/40 |
| Union | 5.7 | 52/37 | 64/35 |
| Hudson | 5.5 | 61/28 | 73/26 |
| Passaic | 4.8 | 48/41 | 60/39 |
| Mercer | 4.1 | 55/33 | 67/31 |
| Somerset | 3.9 | 40/48 | 52/46 |
| Gloucester | 3.6 | 43/45 | 55/43 |
| Atlantic | 3.1 | 45/44 | 57/42 |
| Sussex | 1.9 | 27/61 | 39/59 |
| Hunterdon | 1.8 | 31/58 | 43/56 |
| Cumberland | 1.5 | 48/40 | 60/38 |
| Cape May | 1.3 | 33/56 | 45/54 |
| Warren | 1.3 | 30/58 | 42/56 |
| Salem | 0.8 | 39/49 | 51/47 |
The geographic disparities are more prominent in NY-23, to the extent that I just don’t feel comfortable laying out baseline numbers, mostly because I have no idea, based on the last couple polls, how former Scozzafava voters will break down and what percentage Scozzafava will still pick up. Plus, her percentage will probably vary wildly from county to county, with most votes coming in the western North Country where her Assembly district is.
Instead, let me just lay out the three distinct parts of this district:
• Western North Country (Jefferson, Lewis, and St. Lawrence Counties): These counties are Scozzafava’s base; together, they make up 35% of the district’s vote. This is probably also the swingiest part of the district, with Jefferson (home of Watertown and Ft. Drum) going for McCain, 47/52, and Lewis going for McCain 45/54. St. Lawrence went for Obama 58/41.
• Eastern North Country (Clinton, Essex, and Franklin Counties): These counties, centered on Plattsburgh in Clinton County, are Owens’s geographic base; they make up 25% of the vote. This is also the most Democratic part of the district: Clinton went for Obama 61/38, Essex (part) 56/42, and Franklin 60/38.
• Syracuse market (Oswego, Oneida, and Madison Counties): These counties are further south and in the Syracuse media market; they make up 35% of the vote. These seem to have become Hoffman’s de facto turf since a) he doesn’t live in the district and b) without a favorite son/daughter, they’re more open to persuasion by TV ad. They’re also on the conservative side: Obama won Madison 49/48 and Oswego 50/48, while losing the part of Oneida 39/59. (The remaining 5% of the vote is in two rural counties in the leg that sticks down into the Adirondacks; they’re quite conservative, with McCain winning Fulton (part) 40/59 and Hamilton 36/63.)
One path to victory for Owens (by a, say, 47/46/6 margin) would be to win the eastern North Country with percentages in the high 50s, while breaking at least 40% in the Syracuse area while holding Hoffman in the low 50s. He would need to break 40% in Scozzafava’s turf, which would require keeping her numbers in the single digits. (As at this point, Scozzafava votes are probably ideologically more aligned with Owens, i.e. life-long moderate Republicans who just can’t bring themselves to vote for a Demmycrat and decide to go down with the ship).
Here’s a handy NY-23 map from National Atlas, including county boundaries:
This is why I love this place! Thanking you many times over.
Thank you for the area breakdown, David.
Here’s an illustration of what one prominent Scozzafava supporter is going through http://www.poststar.com/news/l…
Teresa Sayward is another pro-Gay marriage R assemblywoman and Scozzafava supporter
snip
Assemblywoman Sayward represents the area around Willsboro, in Essex County.
…out of Clinton and Franklin Counties to win. The best two single baseline figures by my account are a 20-point margin in St. Lawrence County or a victory in Jefferson County. If either of those two things happen, I would bet on an Owens victory.
The best bellwether county in New Jersey would seem to be Bergen County. If Corzine is winning Bergen County, he’s probably winning the state.
Please post an update with a link to the results!
cnn seemed pretty excited to use their silly map.