12:05AM: Please join us in the new thread.
11:49PM: Mark Kleinschmidt narrowly beat Matt Czajkowski for the mayoral job in Chapel Hill, NC.
11:46PM: Oh, yeah, so the NYC mayoral race was officially called for Bloombo, but it wound up being close – just five points. A lot of people are going to have a lot of ‘splainin’ to do tomorrow.
11:44PM: 85% tallied and Owens still leads 49-45 – about 4,200 votes.
11:41PM: Democrat Anthony Foxx looks to have won the Charlotte mayor’s race by a little more than 3,000 votes. (All precincts are in.)
11:39PM: Out in California’s 10th CD, John Garamendi is up 56-40 with 22% in.
11:35PM: Taegan Goddard says that there are 10K absentees in NY-23.
11:31PM: Good guys with a narrow lead on Washington’s Ref. 71, 52-48. But remember, it can take a long time (even weeks) to count the vote in Washington.
11:28PM: Bad guys pull ahead, 51.6 to 48.4 in Maine.
11:27PM: Also in the NYC burbs, incumbent Dem Andy Spano (Westchester Co. Exec.) is getting destroyed, 58-42. Did anyone see that coming? Down in Hotlanta, Norwood is holding a lead at 45, with Reed at 37. This one looks headed to a run-off.
11:23PM: Ambitious Nassau County (Long Island) Executive Tom Suozzi is leading his Republican challenger by just 1% with half the vote counted. Suozzi would probably run for AG if Cuomo runs for governor – wonder if this might put a crimp in his plans.
11:22PM: Reid Wilson of The Hill: “Several GOP sources telling me they expect Bill Owens (D) to win NY23.”
11:00PM: We are down 52-48 in that PA Sup. Ct. race – 83% reporting. Not good.
10:57PM: A bright ray of sunshine? Owens leading 49-46 with two thirds in.
10:44PM: Dave Weigel says: “WHOA – Hoffman splitting Madison County, where he was leading 2-1 in Siena Poll. Getting ready to say ‘Congressman Bill Owens.'” You can get county results here.
10:33PM: The good guys have won in Kalamazoo.
Tag: Election 2009
NJ-Gov, NY-23: County Baselines
A popular feature on the last few big election days has been county baselines — in other words, using previous electoral data to project what Democrats need to break in each of a state or district’s counties in order to squeak across the finish line in total. I’m using 2008 presidential data, which may not exactly reflect today’s turnout (for instance, there may be less turnout in certain corners of New Jersey among infrequent voters whose 2008 participation was Obama-driven — non-white voters in Newark or college students in New Brunswick — which would serve to make Essex and Middlesex Cos. a slightly smaller percentage of today’s statewide totals), but I don’t want to get too fancy trying to weight for those kinds of problems.
Unfortunately, today’s two big-ticket races are particularly difficult, because they both hinge on third-party candidates (or second-party, in the case of Dede Scozzafava). With New Jersey, my best guess for a squeaking-across-the-finish line model for a Jon Corzine victory would be around 45/44/10, and seeing as how Chris Daggett doesn’t have a clearly defined geographic base, I’m just assigning him 10% in each county across the boards. At any rate, this should help advanced poll-watchers here measure whether Corzine is on track as various county results roll in, although you’ll probably need to make mental adjustments to account for any county-by-county fluctuation for Daggett, as well as that polls have shown that Corzine is likely to overperform in the north a bit and Christie is likely to overperform in the south.
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote | What we need to break 45% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 45/44/10 | 57/42 |
| Bergen | 10.7 | 42/47 | 54/45 |
| Middlesex | 8.3 | 48/40 | 60/38 |
| Essex | 8.2 | 64/25 | 76/23 |
| Monmouth | 8.1 | 35/53 | 47/51 |
| Ocean | 7.1 | 28/60 | 40/58 |
| Morris | 6.4 | 33/55 | 45/53 |
| Camden | 6.1 | 55/33 | 67/31 |
| Burlington | 5.8 | 47/42 | 59/40 |
| Union | 5.7 | 52/37 | 64/35 |
| Hudson | 5.5 | 61/28 | 73/26 |
| Passaic | 4.8 | 48/41 | 60/39 |
| Mercer | 4.1 | 55/33 | 67/31 |
| Somerset | 3.9 | 40/48 | 52/46 |
| Gloucester | 3.6 | 43/45 | 55/43 |
| Atlantic | 3.1 | 45/44 | 57/42 |
| Sussex | 1.9 | 27/61 | 39/59 |
| Hunterdon | 1.8 | 31/58 | 43/56 |
| Cumberland | 1.5 | 48/40 | 60/38 |
| Cape May | 1.3 | 33/56 | 45/54 |
| Warren | 1.3 | 30/58 | 42/56 |
| Salem | 0.8 | 39/49 | 51/47 |
The geographic disparities are more prominent in NY-23, to the extent that I just don’t feel comfortable laying out baseline numbers, mostly because I have no idea, based on the last couple polls, how former Scozzafava voters will break down and what percentage Scozzafava will still pick up. Plus, her percentage will probably vary wildly from county to county, with most votes coming in the western North Country where her Assembly district is.
Instead, let me just lay out the three distinct parts of this district:
• Western North Country (Jefferson, Lewis, and St. Lawrence Counties): These counties are Scozzafava’s base; together, they make up 35% of the district’s vote. This is probably also the swingiest part of the district, with Jefferson (home of Watertown and Ft. Drum) going for McCain, 47/52, and Lewis going for McCain 45/54. St. Lawrence went for Obama 58/41.
• Eastern North Country (Clinton, Essex, and Franklin Counties): These counties, centered on Plattsburgh in Clinton County, are Owens’s geographic base; they make up 25% of the vote. This is also the most Democratic part of the district: Clinton went for Obama 61/38, Essex (part) 56/42, and Franklin 60/38.
• Syracuse market (Oswego, Oneida, and Madison Counties): These counties are further south and in the Syracuse media market; they make up 35% of the vote. These seem to have become Hoffman’s de facto turf since a) he doesn’t live in the district and b) without a favorite son/daughter, they’re more open to persuasion by TV ad. They’re also on the conservative side: Obama won Madison 49/48 and Oswego 50/48, while losing the part of Oneida 39/59. (The remaining 5% of the vote is in two rural counties in the leg that sticks down into the Adirondacks; they’re quite conservative, with McCain winning Fulton (part) 40/59 and Hamilton 36/63.)
One path to victory for Owens (by a, say, 47/46/6 margin) would be to win the eastern North Country with percentages in the high 50s, while breaking at least 40% in the Syracuse area while holding Hoffman in the low 50s. He would need to break 40% in Scozzafava’s turf, which would require keeping her numbers in the single digits. (As at this point, Scozzafava votes are probably ideologically more aligned with Owens, i.e. life-long moderate Republicans who just can’t bring themselves to vote for a Demmycrat and decide to go down with the ship).
Here’s a handy NY-23 map from National Atlas, including county boundaries:
