House Vulnerability Index, Revisited

You may remember that in the wake of the 2008 elections, I tried out a new quantitative project, developing an index for predicting vulnerability for House members based on a mix of PVI and previous House election performance. (It turned out to be pretty useful, in that 2006 numbers were pretty predictive of who actually got knocked off in 2008.)

I included, of course, what the index would predict for 2010, but with the caveat that things would change as we became aware of more open seats. With a number of open seats in key races now known — and with SSP Labs gearing up to issue a Competitive House Race Ratings table — it’s time to re-crunch the numbers. Two other important modifications are being included here, too: back in January, we were still relying on 2000-04 Cook PVIs, but now we have 2004-08 PVIs. This can help us more accurately pin down where some of the races are headed, in view of accelerating pro-Democratic trends in, say, California or Illinois and pro-Republican trends in Arkansas and Tennessee. And rather than using 2008 margins in NY-20, NY-23, CA-10, CA-32, and IL-05, I’m using the narrower 2009 special election margins in each of those cases.

Here’s a quick recap of how it works. Check out the chart of vulnerable Democrats below, which indicates that Bobby Bright is in the worst shape. Bobby Bright had the 3rd narrowest margin of victory of any Democrat (0.6%, behind only Tom Perriello at 0.2% and Scott Murphy at 0.4% in the NY-20 special), and he’s in the district with the 4th worst PVI of any Democrat (R+16, behind only Chet Edwards, Gene Taylor, and Walt Minnick). Add them up for a raw vulnerability score of 7, the worst of any Democrat. Slightly below him you might notice that LA-03 gets a margin of 0 (despite that Charlie Melancon won unopposed in 2008); that’s the tweak that I perform for all open seats. With PVI alone (R+12, 13th worst of any Dem-held seat), the raw score is 13, good for 3rd place.

I can already anticipate all the objections: it doesn’t take into account the quality of the opposition, it doesn’t take into account fundraising, it doesn’t take into account whether a candidate is uniquely appealing or unappealing or campaign-savvy or rusty, and it doesn’t take tough votes into account. That is all true. This is just a simple yardstick for getting the conversation started. And at any rate, if you want something more nuanced, Tom Schaller over at 538 recently put together a chart incorporating some of these other elements and still got… well… some weirder results (Gerry Connolly in VA-11 the most vulnerable? Doesn’t seem likely.)

Rather than the 20 I featured in January, I’m expanding the Dem list to 50, as it looks like Democratic vulnerabilities may extend well beyond 20. Not to say that we’re definitely looking at anything close to a 1994-sized event next year — we don’t have anywhere near the number of open seats up next year (yet) as in 1994, which was where the GOP did the most damage — or that Democratic House losses in 2010 will exceed 20, but simply acknowledging that the NRCC has been successful in “spreading the field” by recruiting solid candidates in rarely-challenged Dem-held red districts, and some of the losses may come from seats outside the currently most likely suspects.

District Rep. Margin
rating		 PVI
rating		 Total
AL-02 Bright 3 4 7
ID-01 Minnick 6 3 9
LA-03 Open 0 13 13
MD-01 Kratovil 5 11 16
TX-17 Edwards, C. 21 1 22
AL-05 Griffith 11 12 23
MS-01 Childers 28.5 7 35.5
VA-05 Perriello 1 38 39
NY-29 Massa 7 36 43
NY-20 Murphy, S. 2 53 55
VA-02 Nye 17.5 40 57.5
GA-08 Marshall 42 16 58
PA-10 Carney 38 20 58
PA-03 Dahlkemper 9 50 59
NC-02 Open? 0 60 60
PA-04 Altmire 34 29 63
MI-07 Schauer 8 56 64
AZ-05 Mitchell 25 43 68
FL-08 Grayson 14 54 68
NM-02 Teague 36 34 70
TN-04 Davis, L. 61 9 70
NY-24 Arcuri 14 57 71
CO-04 Markey, B. 37 35 72
OH-16 Boccieri 30.5 48 78.5
AZ-01 Giffords 35 44 79
OH-15 Kilroy 4 75 79
NY-23 Owens 14 66 80
AZ-01 Kirkpatrick 49 32 81
ND-AL Pomeroy 67 15 82
OH-18 Space 59 24 83
IN-09 Hill 57 27 84
WI-08 Kagen 22 62 84
NJ-03 Adler 16 70 86
TX-23 Rodriguez 40 47 87
NC-08 Kissell 30.5 59 89.5
UT-02 Matheson 85 5 90
NH-01 Shea-Porter 20 72 92
CA-11 McNerney 28.5 64 92.5
FL-24 Kosmas 48 45 93
SC-05 Spratt 68 25 93
OH-01 Driehaus 17.5 78 95.5
NH-02 Open 0 97 97
FL-02 Boyd 65 33 98
NC-11 Shuler 70.5 28 98.5
PA-07 Open 0 99 99
KS-03 Moore, D. 50.5 49 99.5
FL-22 Klein 23 77 100
MO-04 Skelton 95.5 6 101.5
NV-03 Titus 19 84 103
NY-19 Hall 52 51 103

Again, some of these names may not be in much danger, because of a combination of their entrenchment and the lack of much of a GOP challenge so far (Chet Edwards, Marshall, Carney). And there are a few names who aren’t on the list because they faced token or no opposition last year who are facing potentially worrisome challenges this year (Snyder, Tanner). Finally, bear in mind that some of these might still turn into open seats and get bumped much higher up the list, as some of the oldsters (Skelton, Spratt) might get tempted to say “Screw it” and throw in the towel a few years earlier than planned.

Now let’s turn to the vulnerable GOP seats. The good news is: the Democrats start out with 4 pickups likely in their pockets, more vulnerable than any Democratic-held seat, which is a solid bulkhead against GOP gains elsewhere. The bad news is: after that, the pickings get pretty slim.

District Rep. Margin
rating		 PVI
rating		 Total
DE-AL Open 0 2 2
IL-10 Open 0 3 3
PA-06 Open 0 4 4
LA-02 Cao 5 1 6
WA-08 Reichert 16 5 21
MI-11 McCotter 17 11 28
CA-50 Bilbray 11 23 34
MN-03 Paulsen 22 12 34
FL-12 Open 0 41 41
OH-12 Tiberi 34 8 42
IL-13 Biggert 28 15 43
NJ-07 Lance 24 20 44
CA-44 Calvert 3 48 51
FL-25 Diaz-Balart, M. 18 34 52
CA-03 Lungren 15 38 53
IL-06 Roskam 44.5 9 53.5
CA-26 Dreier 33 24 57
NE-02 Terry 7 53 60
MI-02 Open 0 62 62
MN-06 Bachmann 6 58 64
PA-15 Dent 58 6 64
CA-46 Rohrabacher 26 39 65
NV-02 Heller 29 37 66
MI-08 Rogers, M. 52 16 68
MN-02 Kline 39 29 68

For comparison purposes, the January charts are over the flip…

District Rep. Margin
rating		 PVI
rating		 Total
ID-01 Minnick 5 1 6
AL-02 Bright 2 5 7
MD-01 Kratovil 4 10 14
TX-17 Edwards 19 2 21
VA-05 Perriello 1 26.5 27.5
AL-05 Griffith 10 20 30
MS-01 Childers 25.5 8.5 34
NY-29 Massa 6 29.5 35.5
VA-02 Nye 15.5 22 37.5
CO-04 Markey 34 11.5 45.5
PA-10 Carney 35 14 49
GA-08 Marshall 39 13 52
FL-08 Grayson 12.5 44 56.5
MI-07 Schauer 7 49.5 56.5
NM-02 Teague 33 23.5 56.5
WI-08 Kagen 20 38.5 58.5
OH-15 Kilroy 3 58 61
AZ-05 Mitchell 23 38.5 61.5
PA-03 Dahlkemper 8 54 62
OH-16 Boccieri 27.5 40 67.5

As you can see, Bright and Minnick have flipped places, thanks to ID-01’s Democratic shift and AL-02’s continued reddening. The same goes for VA-05, where Tom Perriello slipped down a few spots thanks to strong presidential performance in Virginia (although last week’s gubernatorial results in rural Virginia indicate Perriello is far from out of the woods). Also, notice Scott Murhpy’s high entry on the new chart, although that doesn’t have anything to do with trends in his district, only with the paper-thin margin of his special election victory.

District Rep. Margin
rating		 PVI
rating		 Total
LA-02 Cao 5 1 6
PA-06 Gerlach 9 6 15
IL-10 Kirk 13 4 17
WA-08 Reichert 16 5 21
MI-11 McCotter 17 16 33
MN-03 Paulsen 22 12 34
NJ-07 Lance 24 13 37
OH-12 Tiberi 34 14 48
CA-50 Bilbray 11 40 51
MN-06 Bachmann 6 46.5 52.5
FL-25 Diaz-Balart 18 37 55
CA-44 Calvert 3 55 58
AL-03 Rogers 25 34 59
LA-04 Fleming 1 60 61
FL-15 Posey 31 30.5 61.5
MN-02 Kline 39 23 62
CA-26 Dreier 33 30.5 63.5
MO-09 Luetkemeyer 4 60 64
NY-26 Lee 38 27 65
PA-15 Dent 58 8 66

By contrast, a few Republicans (Fleming, Luetkemeyer, and Alabama Mike Rogers) fall off the list thanks to strong McCain performances in 2008 in their districts. Even Michele Bachmann looks a little safer, thanks to little presidential movement in her district (although she’s a prime example of how this formula can’t account for the quality of a challenger or the insanity of an incumbent).

77 thoughts on “House Vulnerability Index, Revisited”

  1. losing. And actually, that’s a scary thought. However, and I think this is a really important point, they all see it coming. And that counts for a lot.  

  2. is completely safe. 100%

    5/6 of Bright, Minnick, LA-03, Kratovil, Griffith, and Childers are gone. I am guessing it is Kratovil that survives.

    We’ll lose one of Edwards, Pomeroy, Matheson, Spratt, and Skelton – it will be a surprise.

    Maybe lose 10-15 of the rest.

    All in all, a loss of 16-21 seats, balanced out by a pick up of 6 – the 4 easy ones, and 2 unexpected others.

    I reserve the right to change my mind. 🙂

  3. especially in the South.  LA-3 is gone, and Minnick, Kratovil, Edwards, Perriello, and Kilroy will probably lose.  Otherwise, NH-2, and PA-7 are the most likely losses.  I rate all other incumbents as favored to win.  Overall, I say the Democrats will hold their House losses to a net of ten or less. BTW, how do you pronounce Kratovil?

  5. RedState is also looking at competitive seats coming up for the 2010 election, basing it solely on Cook PVI and Cook’s ratings.

    Except they are so inept that they dont realize that even if a PVI is in the red, it absolutely does not mean that district voted for McCain.  They simply call R/D+0 even districts, and then an R+1 or greater a Republican district and a D+1 or greater district a Democratic district.

    Love to see that when we analyze PVI’s, we get Cook to change his system.  When RedState analyzes PVI’s, they dont understand what they are reading.

  6. Some Democrats like Jason Altmire who voted against Health Care deserve to lose.  Why should we support a Democrat who votes against his President, his leadership, his party caucus and the liberal democrats who got him elected?

    With Democrats like him, who needs the Republican label?

    ABowers

  7. The SSP index is an interesting way to rank House candidates, that’s for sure. But it just doesn’t quite capture all the factors…yet.  ðŸ™‚

    If I was to pick a Top Ten Dems Most Likely to Lose, I’d go with:

    Minnick

    Kratovil

    Perreillo

    Teague

    Schauer

    Altmire

    Bright

    Griffith

    Nye

    Grayson

    …in that order.

    Although I’d say any but perhaps the top three could make it through with a strong campaign.

    Among Republicans, the most interesting pair of numbers has to be Bachmann and Dent. Dent’s got a margin score of 58, so he’s doing well holding down the sixth-toughest district, while Bachmann’s barely holding on in the 58th-toughest with the sixth-closest margin. Yeah, conservatives are sooo much more electable than moderates.

  8. but I just don’t see it. They tried hard against Boswell in 2002, 2004 and 2006 and came up short. He is not a particularly strong incumbent, but with the NRCC having so many better targets, I don’t think they would invest money in IA-03. Besides, even if a Republican got elected here, it wouldn’t be a net long-term gain, because probably the IA-03 representative will be thrown into the same district as Tom Latham (currently IA-04) after redistricting.

  9. I tend to think that the economy will eventually improve, and by November 2010, there will be much less anxiety about the economy.

    I think it’ll be a fairly quiet election cycle net-gain wise. I think we’ll lose net 4-8 House seats, while we gain net 1-2 Senate seats. It’ll be most like a 1990 or a 1970 cycle.

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