This is my first post here at SSP, but I check this site everyday on my commute home. For my first post, I want to add to the chorus: I have redistricted Maryland. However, in observing others’ maps, I’ve seen weirdly-configured shapes and people ignoring where current congresscritters live. With Dave’s new partisan data, I constructed what I think is a common sense, clean 8-0 map in Maryland. Please give me feedback!
Goals in mind:
– Create an 8-0 map in Maryland
– Make a Democratic-leaning district to redistrict out Barlett
– Strengthen the present 1st District for Frank Kratovil or any future Democrat
– Make Donna Edwards’ and Elijah Cummings’ district less Democratic (the current drawings waste too many Democratic votes) to help out adjacent districts
– Make the districts look neat
– Obey the VRA
– Be cognizant of current congresscritters’ homes. (successful with everyone except Sarbanes, but his district contains some of his old territory)
I think I accomplished the aforementioned goals.
District 1: (DARK BLUE)
Incumbent: Roscoe Bartlett (R)
Stats (relevant if >5% of district)
70% White, 9% Black, 9% Asian, 9% Hispanic
Obama: 56%
McCain: 41%
There is no way the old and conservative Barlett would win in this district. The district adds Democratic votes in heavily-Democratic Montgomery County.
District 2: GREEN
Incumbent: Chris Van Hollen (D)
Stats (relevant if >5% of district)
60% White, 15% Black, 8% Asian, 13% Hispanic
Obama: 64%
McCain: 34%
The district dramatically shifts upstate, but keeps Van Hollen’s home in Kensington. I did not want to dilute this district this much (as Van Hollen is a very important member of Democratic leadership), but I think he should be safe here, with Obama winning by 30%.
District 3: PURPLE
Incumbent: Dutch Ruppersberger
Stats (relevant if >5% of district)
66% White, 25% Black
Obama: 55%
McCain: 42%
The district includes both Ruppersberger’s and Sarbanes’ home, but I thin Sarbanes would run in my sixth, as both are Democratic-leaning districts, but Sarbanes represents some of the turf in the sixth. This district should somewhat easily elect a Dem as this district is anchored in Baltimore and Baltimore County, with some of conservative Harford County mixed in.
District 4: RED
Incumbent: Elijah Cummings
Stats (relevant if >5% of district)
41% White, 50% Black
Obama: 71%
McCain: 26%
The district is made for VRA rules, as the district is 50%+1 black. Cummings picks up a lot of new territory in Baltimore County, but represents a heavily progressive district nonetheless.
District 5: YELLOW
Incumbent: Frank Kratovil
Stats (relevant if >5% of district)
71% White, 22% Black
The district’s arm into Baltimore makes the district somewhat swingy, but overall the district is barely Democratic-leaning. The PVI should shift at least thirteen points from the present composition. The Eastern Shore-based district does not have Talbot county, as it is lost for partisan purposes (to increase numbers in Baltimore City).
Obama: 52%
McCain: 45%
District 6: LIGHT BLUE
Incumbent: John Sarbanes
Stats (relevant if >5% of district)
63% White, 21% Black, 7% Asian, 5% Hispanic
Obama: 57%
McCain: 40%
Again, Sarbanes would have to move to the district, but it contains some of his old district. In a pure partisan lens, the district is maybe a tick less Democratic, but Sarbanes should have no problem here.
District 7: GRAY
Incumbent: Donna Edwards
Stats (relevant if >5% of district)
31% White, 50% Black, 13% Hispanic
Obama: 75%
McCain: 21%
Unfortunately I lost the numbers to this district in terms of Obama-McCain, but this is what I remember. The district still has 50%+1 minority status, but it also lends many of the wasted Democratic votes to other counties.
District 8: LIGHTISH BLUE (BOTTOM OF MARYLAND)
Incumbent: Steny Hoyer
Stats (relevant if >5% of district)
56% White, 35% Black
Obama: 63%
McCain: 33%
I lost these numbers too, but Hoyer should be safe in this district.
UPDATE: I made some changes based on davybaby’s comments. The only thing that hasn’t changed since my original post is the number of each district, but I suppose anyone could easily renumber them.
I’m sure this could really be called “clean.” Cleaner, maybe. But I don’t care either way.
It is a reasonable, defensible map that every Democrat can live with. Great job.
A few suggestions/comments:
1. It would be helpful if you would add the color to your descriptions, i.e., “District 1. (Blue)”
2. It is “John Sarbanes,” not “Paul Sarbanes.” ex-Sen. Paul Sarbanes in the father of Rep. John Sarbanes.
3. Why the renumbering of the districts? Why not use the traditional district numbers? (“1” for the Eastern Shore district, “5” for Hoyer’s district, etc.)
and not simply for an incumbent protection plan. I think it’s likely they’ll try to shore up Kratovil should he be re-elected. I’m not sure they will be aggressive enough to draw Bartlett’s district into Montgomery.
I think you could make Edwards’ and Cummings’ districts less Democratic to help the ones that are a bit weak. Looks like there are some heavily Democratic but not heavily African American areas in both of those districts. Other than that, I generally like it.
It’s ugly, but I believe it corrects the “Sarbanes has to move” problem. If the swings are even, I also believe that every seat was won by John Kerry.
All Dems are safe, but Hoyer faces a minority-majority electorate (whites are below 40%).