Public Policy Polling (pdf) (11/30-12/2, registered voters, 3/5-8 in parentheses):
Beau Biden (D): 39 (36)
Mike Castle (R): 45 (44)
Undecided: 16 (20)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
When PPP last looked at the Senate race in Delaware — back in March, when the idea of Mike Castle getting into the race seemed kind of odd — they found Castle with an 8-point edge. Not much has changed in the intervening months, even though Castle caught a lot of people off guard by making his entry official; Castle still holds a 6-point lead. This is a little more pessimistic than the most recent few polls (a 5-point Biden lead according to Susequehanna and a 1-point Castle lead according to R2K), but taken together, they average out to a very tight race.
Both have good favorables, with Biden at 43/35 and Castle at 55/28; the key number seems to be that Castle is cleaning up among independents (52-23), which helps him to overcome the Democratic registration advantage in Delaware. Obama has 53/41 approval, which doesn’t seem particularly out-of-whack with where things stand nationally, but one strange finding is that the House health care reform bill had a net negative, 43-46, in this sample — suggesting that Castle’s vote may not have done him as much damage with this sample as it seemed to do with Susquehanna’s sample a few weeks ago.
RaceTracker Wiki: DE-Sen
Vote by Party ID
Total Hartley-Nagle Castle
Democrat (48%) 62% 38%
Republican (31%) 10% 90%
Independent (20%) 36% 64%
All a democrat would have needed to do to have unseated Castle would have been to get 20% more democrats. (82% to 18%) Had John Carney or Jack Markell ran against Castle in ’06 or ’08, he owuld have been unseated. Biden will likely get 85% of dems so this race is absolutely winnable.
It doesn’t seem to be a given that Beau Biden runs. 2010 is looking like a tough year for the dems unless there’s some significant drop in unemployment by next year. So he may not want to take the risk. As the vp’s son it would be beyond humiliating for him to lose this race.
No way a majority of Delawareans are against health care reform. PPP’s sample is bogus, at least on that angle.
We know how their numbers in NY-23 (over 50% for Hoffman) turned out. It’s as if there’s something strange in their voter screen.