Public Policy Polling (pdf) (11/30-12/2, registered voters):
John Carney (D): 47
Fred Cullis (R): 24
Undecided: 29John Carney (D): 44
Charlie Copeland (R): 32
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±4.1%)
With lots of ominous numbers in the polls for Democrats these days, here’s a ray of sunshine: the GOP’s decision to take a gamble on a Senate pickup by running Mike Castle all but assures them of losing his House seat. Former Lt. Governor (and loser of the 2008 gubernatorial primary) John Carney is poised to pick this one up. He almost doubles-up on the only announced candidate, never-before-elected businessman Fred Cullis, and has a double-digit lead over the GOP’s best shot at holding the seat, former state Sen. and former Lt. Governor candidate Charlie Copeland. (In the only other poll of this race, R2K had Carney beating Copeland 44-21 in October.)
As one might expect, everyone here, even Carney, is pretty much unknown: Carney is at 27/18 favorables, while Copeland is at 15/19 and Cullis is basically Generic R at this point, which is good for 3/10. PPP points out in a separate release that 24% of Delawareans have a positive impression of congressional Republicans (not coincidentally, the same number who are voting for Cullis), which shows us what we’re up against in terms of Castle’s personal appeal and his ability to transcend his party’s brand in his home state. Delaware pols not up for election in 2010 are in fine shape: Gov. Jack Markell is at 40/31 faves, and Sen. Tom Carper’s at 44/31.
RaceTracker Wiki: DE-AL
may turn out to have been a blessing in disguise for Carney. His path to Congress is pretty much assured. Beau’s, not so much!
Even though I applaud his bravery on the health-care vote, Joseph Cao is not going to be reelected unless he switches parties in LA-2.
…Castle won’t be there long so they’re less un-okay with sending a Republican tthe Senate?
even though Carney is a corporate shrill, as far as Northern Democrats go.