Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (11/30-12/2, likely voters, no trendlines):
Dina Titus (D-inc): 40
Joe Heck (R): 40
Undecided: 20Dina Titus (D-inc): 48
Rob Lauer (R): 32
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±6%)
This is one of the first media polls we’ve seen of a 2010 House race, and things don’t look so hot: Rep. Dina Titus is tied against former state Sen. Joe Heck. Heck, you may recall, dropped down from the gubernatorial race to sub in for highly touted rich guy banker John Guedry. (Guedry claimed he bailed on the race for allegedly personal reasons – not long after it came out that his bank received $400 million in TARP funds while cutting him a fat bonus check.) Titus herself was a replacement candidate, joining the race last year after prosecutor Robert Daskas dropped out.
Heck doesn’t have the primary field to himself, though. Real estate “investor” (is that like developer?) Rob Lauer looks to be running to Heck’s right and has said he’ll put $100,000 of his own money into the race. Heck’s biggest sin appears to be his initial refusal to sign an anti-tax pledge (he later changed his mind); with the Republican base exceedingly intolerant of any apostasy these days, this may wind up hurting him. It’s still very early (the primary is June 8th), but we’ll see if Lauer can gain any traction among the teabagger set.
In the meantime, Titus has plenty to be concerned about. One bit of good news is that she leads among independents, 46-37. But the real story is among self-identified Democrats, where she only has a 68-9 margin. Heck, on the other hand, gets the support of Republicans at an 80-2 rate. The fact that 23% of the members of Titus’s own party aren’t sure that they want to support her speaks to broader concerns about the energy and excitement (or lack thereof) within the Democratic base. She’ll need to consolidate those voters in order to secure a second term.
Mase-Dix also asked if voters approved of Titus’s vote in favor of the healthcare reform bill. By a 41-47 margin, they said no. The fact that indies were opposed 38-50 yet she still leads them in the horserace is also a good sign – this vote isn’t a dealbreaker. Dems also approve of healthcare reform by wide margins. The difficulty is that Republicans disapprove of it by even wider margins. Will touting healthcare reform therefore motivate the other side more than your own? It’s a tough situation.
Furthermore, as Tim Sahd points out, the Las Vegas area has been especially hard-hit by the recession and the housing bust. This isn’t helping Titus either. Obviously this is just one poll, and we’re a long way off from election day. Still, she’s in the bottom half of Frontline Dems when it comes to fundraising, and like a lot of members of Team Blue, she has a lot of hard work ahead of her.
Their final poll for North Carolina senate
46% Dole
45% Hagan
Their final poll for Nevada President
47% Obama
43% McCain
Their final poll for NV-03
44% Titus
44% Porter
(Titus was always behind in all the other Mason Dixon Polls)
Now the actuall results
North Carolina Senate
53% Hagan
44% Dole
Nevada President
55% Obama
43% McCain
NV-03
47% Titus
42% Porter
and Mason Dixon has had many other misses in addition to these
Granted, we are measuring support, not actual turn out so it isnt as black and white sounding as “enthusiasm gap”.
I kind of think it may be better for the country and for the Democratic party to sacrifice some conservadems and force them to vote with us. They may lose their elections or have tougher ones but at the same time, the Democratic Party will actually have results to tout. Lincoln may go down but that my save other incumbents like Titus, who needs Dems to coalesce around her.
This is of course more compounded by her district as a whole disapproving of her vote but her needing to have voted that way to win in 2010. Yeah, its tricky….
Of the Reid name dragging down Democrats down-ballot.
and the Dem 68-9 numbers tell all there is to know. Those voters are not going to the Republican in the end. The only question is they turn out, and the national debate of the next year will determine that.
One other note, the Tim Sahd article is way off base. Las Vegas has been relatively un-hit by the recession. Hotel occupancy is down less than 7%. The economy doesn’t help anyone, but it is less an issue here than in the country in general.
Also Heck is a good candidate. Notice how she crushes the weaker candidate.
I’m not particularly worried about a district like this. She won by FIVE points last time (and the cycle before that Porter won by ONE point).
This race is tied because it should be, and it has more or less nothing to do with 2009 issues. This poll could have been taken in 2006 or 2007. It’s a swing district.
It’s been over 8 hours since this was put up. Surely the sky must have fallen by now…surely…
Democrat voters would realize that not voting, or voting for a republican because the “democrats” haven’t delivered miracles is not going to improve the country.
She won with under 50% and Heck is a strong recruit. I agree with those exasperated with Dems lack of motivation. While I understand disappointment most could do with a dose of political reality. These are tough issues and even with big majorities it isn’t so easy to get exactly what you want especially when the majority is built on representation of places hostile to your agenda. It is very foolish to believe not voting at all helps you in any shape or form. It is the ultimate cutting your nose off to be spiteful.