Open Seats Lost by Dems Since 1994

Alright, here’s sort of a group trivia question: Which open seat House races (including special elections) have the Democrats lost since 1994? I’m sure that together, we can name them all.

UPDATE: I think this chart covers it. Let me know if I’ve missed any.















































































































































































































































































































































Year District Incumbent Status Successor Opponent Results
1995 CA-15 Norm Mineta Retired Tom Campbell Jerry Estruth 59-36
1996 AL-03 Glen Browder Ran for Senate Bob Riley Ted Little 50-47
1996 AL-04 Tom Bevill Retired Bob Aderholt Bob Wilson 50-48
1996 IL-20 Dick Durbin Elected to Senate John Shimkus Jay Hoffman 50.3-49.7
1996 LA-05 Cleo Fields Retired John Cooksey Francis Thompson 58-42
1996 MS-03 Sonny Montgomery Retired Chip Pickering John Eaves 61-36
1996 MT-AL Pat Williams Retired Rick Hill Bill Yellowtail 52-43
1996 OK-03 Bill Brewster Retired Wes Watkins Darryl Roberts 51-45
1996 SD-AL Tim Johnson Elected to Senate John Thune Rick Weiland 58-37
1996 TX-05 John Bryant Ran for Senate Pete Sessions John Pouland 53-47
1996 TX-12 Pete Geren Retired Kay Granger Hugh Parmer 58-41
1997 NM-03 Bill Richardson Named UN Ambassador Bill Redmond Erica Serna 43-40
1998 CA-03 Vic Fazio Retired Doug Ose Sandra Dunn 52-45
1998 CA-36 Jane Harman Ran for Governor Steven Kuykendall Janice Hahn 49-47
1998 KY-06 Scotty Baesler Ran for Senate Ernie Fletcher Ernesto Scorsone 53-46
1998 NC-08 Bill Hefner Retired Robin Hayes Mike Taylor 51-49
1998 PA-15 Paul McHale Retired Pat Toomey Roy Afflerbach 55-45
2000 MI-08 Debbie Stabenow Elected to Senate Mike Rogers Dianne Byrum 48.8-48.7
2000 MO-06 Patsy Danner Retired Sam Graves Steve Danner 51-47
2000 NY-01 Michael Forbes Lost Primary Felix Grucci Regina Seltzer 56-41
2000 PA-04 Ron Klink Ran for Senate Melissa Hart Terry Van Horne 59-41
2000 VA-02 Owen Pickett Retired Ed Schrock Jody Wagner 52-48
2000 WV-02 Bob Wise Elected Governor Shelley Moore Capito Jim Humphreys 49-46
2001 VA-04 Norm Sisisky Died Randy Forbes Louise Lucas 52-48
2002 IN-02 Tim Roemer Retired Chris Chocola Jill Long Thompson 50-46
2002 MI-10 David Bonior Ran for Governor Candice Miller Carl Marlinga 63-36
2002 MI-11 Jim Barcia Elected to State Senate Thad McCotter Kevin Kelley 57-40
2002 OH-03 Tony Hall Named to UN Post Mike Turner Rick Carne 59-41
2002 PA-06 Bob Borski Retired Jim Gerlach Dan Wofford 51-49
2002 PA-18 Frank Mascara Lost in PA-12 Primary Tim Murphy Jack Machek 60-40
2004 KY-04 Ken Lucas Retired Geoff Davis Nick Clooney 54-44
2004 LA-07 Chris John Ran for Senate Charles Boustany Willie Mount 55-45
2004 TX-02 Jim Turner Retired Ted Poe Nick Lampson 56-43
2004 TX-10 Lloyd Doggett Elected in TX-25 Michael McCaul 79-0
2004 TX-11 Chet Edwards Elected in TX-17 Mike Conaway Wayne Raasch 77-22
2004 TX-24 Martin Frost Lost in TX-32 Kenny Marchant Gary Page 64-34

The Michigan and Pennsylvania races in 2002, the Texas races in 2004 and the LA-05 race in 1996 were all due to redistricting. Obviously the Texas races pose a bit of a definitional problem, since most of the affected Dem incumbents ran in different districts (or at least, renumbered districts). But I’ve left TX-10, 11 & 24 on the list because there were indeed no incumbents who ran in those races. TX-02 is a little trickier, because Jim Turned retired outright, but incumbent Nick Lampson ran in the 2nd CD (albeit a very different-looking 2nd CD). But I think it merits inclusion.

And here’s an interesting tidbit: Not counting losses attributable to redistricting, Dems have lost 27 open seats and 12 incumbents since 1994, for a total of 39 over a 15-year period. To take back the House, the GOP needs to win two more than that total – 41.

61 thoughts on “Open Seats Lost by Dems Since 1994”

  5. Vic Fazio’s seat that was lost to Republican Doug Ose when Fazio retired in 1998. Ose himself retired in 2004 to be replaced by Dan Lungren. I have my fingers crossed that we can beat him next year.

  7. Sissiki died, Randy Forbes won…last special election to flip to Republicans.

    Also MT-AL, WV-02, KY-04, LA-07

    A few that we won back; IN-02, SD-AL, VA-02

  8. John ran for Breaux’s seat but lost to Vitter.  Republicans took the seat in the runoff.  We did, however, make it up by taking LA-07 with Melancon the same day.

  9. Since 2001 we’ve made a killing in specials.

    Dem pickups:

    NY-23 – 2009

    MS-01 – 2008

    LA-06 – 2008

    IL-14 – 2008

    SD-AL – 2004

    KY-06 – 2004

    Rep Pickups:

    VA-04 – 2001

    NM-03 – 1997

    CA-15 – 1995

  11. 2008:

    None

    2006:

    None

    2004:

    KY-04

    LA-07

    TX-10 – due to gerrymander

    PR-AL – Nonvoting office

    2002:

    AZ-01 – New Seat

    CA-21 – New Seat

    CO-07 – New Seat

    FL-24 – New Seat

    FL-25 – New Seat

    GA-12 – New Seat

    IN-02

    MD-02

    MI-10

    MI-11

    NV-03 – New Seat

    OH-03

    PA-06

    PA-18

    TX-05 – New Seat

    TX-31 – New Seat

  14. He’s always been very liberal in the Senate.  Why did his seat flip after he vacated it?  I always assumed he represented a very democratic house seat given his liberal bent.  And Shimkus is not even a moderate republican.

  15. Anything fun and interesting or just curious?

    Do another because this only leads to the next obvious questions, how about defeated incumbents instead of open seats.

  17. Her opponent for the open seat Jim Humphreys spent an enormous sum of his own money on that open seat race.  Humphries ended up spending just under $7 million to Capito Moore’s $1.3 mill.  Of course Capito Moore had the advantage of having a well known last name in West Virginia.

    Same thing happened in 2002 when Humphreys again ran against Capito Moore and outspent her $8.2 mill to $2.5 mill.  In the rematch she crushed him 60-40%.

    Talk about a bad return on investment.  He spent about $14 mill on two losing elections.

  18. “We’re releasing a poll tomorrow that’s good for Democrats! First time in ten weeks by my count”

    Boucher above 50% maybe?

     

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