Tag: trivia

Trivia Time, Incumbent Losers Edition

I liked this puzzler from user markhanna (slightly edited):

Can you cite an example from the past 20 years where a non-scandal plagued incumbent lost to a challenger in a Presidential year when the incumbent’s state voted for the same party he (or she) was from?

While I think Mark was limiting his inquiry to senators, let’s add governors to the mix as well to make it more interesting. A few folks have already taken a stab in the prior comment threads, but what have you got?

Open Seats Lost by Dems Since 1994

Alright, here’s sort of a group trivia question: Which open seat House races (including special elections) have the Democrats lost since 1994? I’m sure that together, we can name them all.

UPDATE: I think this chart covers it. Let me know if I’ve missed any.















































































































































































































































































































































Year District Incumbent Status Successor Opponent Results
1995 CA-15 Norm Mineta Retired Tom Campbell Jerry Estruth 59-36
1996 AL-03 Glen Browder Ran for Senate Bob Riley Ted Little 50-47
1996 AL-04 Tom Bevill Retired Bob Aderholt Bob Wilson 50-48
1996 IL-20 Dick Durbin Elected to Senate John Shimkus Jay Hoffman 50.3-49.7
1996 LA-05 Cleo Fields Retired John Cooksey Francis Thompson 58-42
1996 MS-03 Sonny Montgomery Retired Chip Pickering John Eaves 61-36
1996 MT-AL Pat Williams Retired Rick Hill Bill Yellowtail 52-43
1996 OK-03 Bill Brewster Retired Wes Watkins Darryl Roberts 51-45
1996 SD-AL Tim Johnson Elected to Senate John Thune Rick Weiland 58-37
1996 TX-05 John Bryant Ran for Senate Pete Sessions John Pouland 53-47
1996 TX-12 Pete Geren Retired Kay Granger Hugh Parmer 58-41
1997 NM-03 Bill Richardson Named UN Ambassador Bill Redmond Erica Serna 43-40
1998 CA-03 Vic Fazio Retired Doug Ose Sandra Dunn 52-45
1998 CA-36 Jane Harman Ran for Governor Steven Kuykendall Janice Hahn 49-47
1998 KY-06 Scotty Baesler Ran for Senate Ernie Fletcher Ernesto Scorsone 53-46
1998 NC-08 Bill Hefner Retired Robin Hayes Mike Taylor 51-49
1998 PA-15 Paul McHale Retired Pat Toomey Roy Afflerbach 55-45
2000 MI-08 Debbie Stabenow Elected to Senate Mike Rogers Dianne Byrum 48.8-48.7
2000 MO-06 Patsy Danner Retired Sam Graves Steve Danner 51-47
2000 NY-01 Michael Forbes Lost Primary Felix Grucci Regina Seltzer 56-41
2000 PA-04 Ron Klink Ran for Senate Melissa Hart Terry Van Horne 59-41
2000 VA-02 Owen Pickett Retired Ed Schrock Jody Wagner 52-48
2000 WV-02 Bob Wise Elected Governor Shelley Moore Capito Jim Humphreys 49-46
2001 VA-04 Norm Sisisky Died Randy Forbes Louise Lucas 52-48
2002 IN-02 Tim Roemer Retired Chris Chocola Jill Long Thompson 50-46
2002 MI-10 David Bonior Ran for Governor Candice Miller Carl Marlinga 63-36
2002 MI-11 Jim Barcia Elected to State Senate Thad McCotter Kevin Kelley 57-40
2002 OH-03 Tony Hall Named to UN Post Mike Turner Rick Carne 59-41
2002 PA-06 Bob Borski Retired Jim Gerlach Dan Wofford 51-49
2002 PA-18 Frank Mascara Lost in PA-12 Primary Tim Murphy Jack Machek 60-40
2004 KY-04 Ken Lucas Retired Geoff Davis Nick Clooney 54-44
2004 LA-07 Chris John Ran for Senate Charles Boustany Willie Mount 55-45
2004 TX-02 Jim Turner Retired Ted Poe Nick Lampson 56-43
2004 TX-10 Lloyd Doggett Elected in TX-25 Michael McCaul 79-0
2004 TX-11 Chet Edwards Elected in TX-17 Mike Conaway Wayne Raasch 77-22
2004 TX-24 Martin Frost Lost in TX-32 Kenny Marchant Gary Page 64-34

The Michigan and Pennsylvania races in 2002, the Texas races in 2004 and the LA-05 race in 1996 were all due to redistricting. Obviously the Texas races pose a bit of a definitional problem, since most of the affected Dem incumbents ran in different districts (or at least, renumbered districts). But I’ve left TX-10, 11 & 24 on the list because there were indeed no incumbents who ran in those races. TX-02 is a little trickier, because Jim Turned retired outright, but incumbent Nick Lampson ran in the 2nd CD (albeit a very different-looking 2nd CD). But I think it merits inclusion.

And here’s an interesting tidbit: Not counting losses attributable to redistricting, Dems have lost 27 open seats and 12 incumbents since 1994, for a total of 39 over a 15-year period. To take back the House, the GOP needs to win two more than that total – 41.