The Iowa blogger John Deeth brought this piece by Hotline’s Reid Wilson to my attention.
An informal list of 17 members the NRCC believes can be convinced to step down, privately called the “Dem Retirement Assault List,” makes clear the party needs Dem incumbents to step aside if they have hopes of taking back the majority. The NRCC has taken pains to attack those lawmakers in recent weeks.
The list includes 14 members whose districts voted for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in ’08. McCain won districts held by Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO) and Bart Gordon (D-TN) with more than 60% of the vote, and districts held by Reps. Rick Boucher (D-VA), Alan Mollohan (D-WV), Marion Berry (D-AR), Nick Rahall (D-WV) and Mike Ross (D-AR) with more than 55%.
McCain narrowly won seats held by Reps. John Spratt (D-SC), Allen Boyd (D-FL), Vic Snyder (D-AR), Baron Hill (D-IN), Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Tim Holden (D-PA) and Collin Peterson (D-MN).
The NRCC has also begun targeting Reps. Sanford Bishop (D-GA), Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) and Leonard Boswell (D-IA), three members who already have credible opponents but who occupy seats Pres. Obama won in ’08.
Here in IA-03, Boswell has three declared Republican opponents. Two of them are likely to be well-funded: Brad Zaun, who has a decent chunk of the Iowa GOP establishment backing him, and former Iowa State university wrestling coach Jim Gibbons. Gibbons has already launched a couple of misleading attacks on Boswell, claiming he’s not working hard enough and that the estate tax fix will hurt farmers and small business owners.
2008 would have been a perfect time for Boswell to retire. Tons of voters in IA-03 registered as Democrats in order to participate in the Iowa caucuses, and any number of candidates could have held this seat easily.
I don’t know anyone who expects Boswell to retire next year, but if he did, this might be a tough hold. A lot would depend on the Democratic nominee, and we might have a crowded primary. One possible candidate is former First Lady Christie Vilsack, who seemed to leave the door open for a future campaign when she ruled out running against Senator Chuck Grassley.
Final note: in that Hotline piece, Wilson writes that
members frequently use the Thanksgiving and Christmas breaks as the time to decide whether to retire, filling Dec. and Jan. with announcements about their future. Already, rumors are flying that various members have decided not to run again.
I hope we don’t hear about more than a few additional retirements this winter. Who do you think are the most likely suspects?
UPDATE: Brian Baird (WA-03) wasn’t on the NRCC list, but he is retiring next year. This district’s PVI is even.
But I’m sure we’ll have a few more retirements regardless. Of those named I’d imagine Boswell and Skelton are possibilities. Only if healthcare falls apart do I see many more retirements from incumbent Dems, which seems unlikely.
Does it really pay for the GOP to telegraph this kind of strategy?
Don’t know how much good it will itself, but it does allow Repubs to claim “victory” if any of these incumbents do retire (and a couple probably will). Messaging like this does matter for fundraising.
I’m not sure what they’re gunning for, Dems aren’t just going to throw in the towel because a Republican tells them to but this picture speaks for itself
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
not the most dignified photos
…that unlike in 1994, Democrats have been in power now only a short time and are still hungry to accomplish a lot.
I agree with the comment that the health care push falling apart would change things.
But I expect a conference bill eventually to be enacted and victory to be trumpeted, and that’s enough to keep everyone on board.
We went into 1994 with 40 years of House control under our belts. There were a lot of guys who felt “been there, done that,” and were ready to move on in life.
It’s different now, power remains new.
I think Spratt and or Snyder are pretty likely to retire
Everyone else on this list makes some sense except for Loretta Sanchez–she’s young-ish (49), her district is getting more and more liberal (read: non-white) every year, she has a centrist image, and redistricting’s coming up anyway.
Well, I guess I think it’s also very unlikely 56-year-old Baron Hill would retire just yet, especially in the face of a tough race (which he’s had basically every year anyway) And Mike Ross is only 48…if he retires it’ll be due to scandal, not age. But then again, Republicans aren’t exactly known for their political prowess of late.