SSP Daily Digest: 12/11

• AR-Sen: A labor-funded group, the Citizens for Strength and Security, is up with a six-digit ad buy in the Arkansas Senate race, attacking putative GOP frontrunner state Sen. Gilbert Baker for his pork-hungry ways. There’s some speculation, though, that the real target of the ad isn’t Baker but rather Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who’s publicly mulling a primary challenge to Blanche Lincoln; observers wonder if this is a sign that the SEIU and allies are firing a shot across Halter’s bow, showing that they have Lincoln’s back (at least monetarily) in exchange for a cloture vote on health care reform for her. With the Arkansas Democratic Party also laying out a lot of money on a pro-Lincoln TV ad, there does seem to be something concerted going on.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon has caught a lot of attention with her splashy spending on the Senate race, blowing through $2 million in three months. Her first campaign finance report, though, is creating a whole lot of question marks. A significant amount of that money isn’t itemized (as campaign finance laws would require), but rather listed as in-kind contributions from McMahon herself; this goes well beyond the usual food and travel stuff that gets listed as in-kind, to include legal fee, survey research, and technology. On the Dem side, poor Chris Dodd won’t be able to attend his own Biden-headlined fundraiser because of the Senate’s working weekend; his wife Jackie will be pinch-hitting for him.

• FL-Sen: RNC chair Michael Steele previously warned stimulus-supporting moderates that the GOP would be “coming after them,” but he dialed that back in a recent St. Pete Times interview when the subject came to Charlie Crist, suggesting a more neutral RNC stance on the Senate primary. He sounded sympathetic about Crist’s job, saying being governor is “not as simple as right or left.”

• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Planned Parenthood issued endorsements in the Illinois races, and just went with the establishment choices (Alexi Giannoulias and Pat Quinn), despite Cheryle Jackson making a big issue out of reproductive rights in health care reform in her Senate primary bid. Perhaps to even things out after spurning Jackson, they also endorsed in the Cook County Board president race, giving the nod to Toni Preckwinkle.

• NC-Sen: We’re already seeing some ideological differences in the North Carolina Dem primary field, as SoS Elaine Marshall and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham seek to differentiate themselves. Marshall says she’d support the public option, while Cunningham says he’d only have voted to start debate on HCR. (Campaign Diaries also has a longer piece on the race today.)

• NY-Sen-B: Suffolk County Legislator (i.e. county commissioner in most states) Jon Cooper is the only elected Dem who has been moving full speed ahead on a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand rather than tipping in a toe and then turning tail. (Activist Jonathan Tasini is already committed to a primary run too.) Cooper says he’ll make a public announcement about his intentions next week, and considering that he’s bringing along a few allies (most notably Assemblyman Charles Levine) it may point to a run… not that he’s likely to pose much of a challenge to Gillibrand.

• CO-Gov: The Denver Post has an in-depth look at how the state’s teabaggers are in a lather over the party establishment’s efforts to clear the field for ex-Rep. Scott McInnis in the gubernatorial race. With state Sen. Josh Penry and ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo pushed aside, though, they don’t have anyone to hang their tri-cornered hats on, other than random businessman Dan Maes, who doesn’t seem to have the name rec or money to make much of an impact in the primary.

• ID-Gov: Democrats finally landed a credible candidate to go up against Butch Otter in the Idaho governor’s race (one of the few anywhere in either column to rate as “Safe”). Keith Allred is a former Harvard professor who’s now a mediator and consultant, who’s attracted a lot of attention via his bipartisan economy-boosting group The Common Interest.

• MN-Gov: Here’s another campaign finance screwup, that may hurt gubernatorial candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher. It turns out that Kelliher maxed-out donors were directed to give to the DFL, which in turn bought an expensive voter database for Kelliher’s campaign’s use. The money has been returned, but this may point to some favoritism on the DFL’s part, because this arrangement wasn’t offered to any of the other candidates.

• NV-Gov: This may be an exercise in advanced tea leaf reading, but the fact that Carolyn Goodman, wife of Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman, has stepped down from her post on the school board is taken to mean that she may be planning on running for Las Vegas mayor in 2011 — which would in turn suggest that Oscar Goodman will be planning on being Governor at that point.

• GA-12: Bedecked in a fuschia hat, former state Sen. Regina Thomas officially kicked off her Dem primary rematch against Rep. John Barrow with an event in Savannah today. She only got 24% against Barrow last year, but may benefit from an earlier start this cycle.

• TN-08: The elevation of farmer/gospel singer Stephen Fincher to “Contender” by the NRCC isn’t sitting well with some other Republicans in the district who are sniffing out the now-competitive race in the wake of Rep. John Tanner’s retirement. A few other Republicans, most notably Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn Jr., are interested. (Flinn is from the district’s small slice of Memphis suburbs, which may be a liability though in this mostly-rural district.) Also mentioned as a potential GOP candidate is Jackson-area physician Ron Kirkland.

• Cook Co. Board Pres.: There’s already a poll out on the Cook County Board president race (the top slot in the nation’s second-largest county, and the race that Rep. Danny Davis recently dropped out of). Incumbent Todd Stroger is in bad shape, with only 14% of the vote; he trails both Dorothy Brown at 29 and Toni Preckwinkle at 20, leading only Terrence O’Brien at 11.

• Mayors: The mayoral runoff in Houston, the nation’s fourth-largest city, is set for tomorrow. City controller Annise Parker (who just got Burnt Orange Report’s endorsement) led in the November election; she faces former city attorney Gene Locke. A Parker victory would make Houston by far the largest city to ever elect an openly LGBT mayor.

65 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 12/11”

  1. I was afraid to post about the CT race though because I know all the Dodd hates might start comparing a man who’s presidential campaign I volunteered for with Jim Bunning, such comparisons make me mad as hell.  

  2. At least this excerpt so suggests:

    Marshall says she’d support the public option, while Cunningham says he’d only have voted to start debate on HCR.

  3. Anotherwords Dems still need many more retirements to lose the House even if 2010 turned out to be a lot like 1994.

    http://www.cookpolitical.com/n…

    In the 1994 wipeout, 225 Democrats sought re-election, as 31 either retired or ran for other office; of those, 191 won, while 34 lost, an 85-15 percent ratio. But out of Democrats’ 31 open seats, 22, or 71 percent, fell into GOP hands.

    The last horrible midterm election for Republicans wasn’t so long ago. In 2006, when 211 GOP incumbents sought re-election, 21 retired or ran for other office; 189 of the 211 won re-election, a 90-10 percent ratio. Out of Republicans’ 21 open seats, eight, or 38 percent, fell into Democratic hands.

    So the ballpark percentages for losses for House incumbents of a party under siege who are seeking re-election seem to be between 2006’s 10 percent and 1994’s 15 percent.

    Do the math: Assume Republicans really need to pick off about 45 Democratic seats to net 41 seats. After all, even 1994’s Democrats picked up four open GOP seats.

    A 10 percent Democratic-incumbent loss rate might mean 20-25 Democrats are unseated, close to the number of seats Democrats picked up in 1982 during President Ronald Reagan’s first midterm election. A 15 percent loss rate might mean 30-35 Democrats are unseated, close to the number of Democrats who lost reelection in 1994 but perhaps still not enough to turn the majority.

  4. Blumenthal, who constantly has cold feet and runs away from every tough race quicker than Lieberman running away from military service?  How about Ned Lamont who couldn’t answer some very basic questions about Connecticut thus letting Lieberman win re-election.  I’m sure Chris Murphy would work better in some people’s minds around here than Chris Dodd, given that people around here think Chris feels entitled to the Senate seat.  

    If they want to run, put your money where your mouth is and draft somebody because Chris doesn’t have to step aside and no one else should make that choice except for the voters of Connecticut.  

  5. about Democratic governors potentially scoring own goals with their Senate appointments.  Madigan would have locked up IL and Cuomo would have locked up NY.  More debatable whether better appointments could have locked up CO and DE, but I suspect better appointments would have made them Democratic-favored, especially Colorado.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

  6. What unions are funding this group?  And what for?  Lincoln stabbed them in the back on EFCA and she’s been nothing by an AHIP toady on health care.  Instead of firing a shot at Bill Halter they should be planning to support him.

  10. Planned Parenthood issued endorsements in the Illinois races, and just went with the establishment choices (Alexi Giannoulias and Pat Quinn), despite Cheryle Jackson making a big issue out of reproductive rights in health care reform in her Senate primary bid. Perhaps to even things out after spurning Jackson, they also endorsed in the Cook County Board president race, giving the nod to Toni Preckwinkle.

    Giannoulias is doing the best job of courting supporters. It’s not that bigwigs in Chicago, Springfield or DC told organizations and party leaders to support Giannoulias. He’s been out hustling for support.

    I don’t know what you mean by “Cheryle Jackson making a big issue out of reproductive rights”. I’m pretty involved at the local level and Jackson has not gotten herself in front of voters as aggressively as Giannoulias and Hoffman. All the candidates are pro-choice in this race. It’s not Planned Parenthood’s job to throw Jackson’s campaign a lifeline.

    Going with Quinn is the safe move for PP. He’s the incumbent. The Cook County Dem Party endorsed him. Outside of getting the teachers and blocking Quinn from getting the AFL-CIO, Hynes hasn’t been effective at courting organizational support. And if all things were equal, I think the people who sit on the board to decide Quinn or Hynes simply have more affinity for Quinn.

    The idea that PP endorsed Preckwinkle to balance some other race is laughable. Preckwinkle got the nod because it’s a no-brainer. Preckwinkle is from Hyde Park and has a long history with progressive activists. Brown is anti-abortion. Stroger is hated outside a minor base in the Black community. And since the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District does deal with reproductive issues, O’Brien hasn’t developed a relationship with these people.

    Endorsing someone besides Preckwinkle would have hurt Planned Parenthood’s fundraising.

    If Cheryle Jackson wants to be taken more seriously as a candidate she should campaign more seriously.

    Don’t like Giannoulias? Sorry. But he’s campaigning more effectively than are his Dem opponents.

  11. I attended the Equality LI town hall at the LGBT Community Center in Bay Shore yesterday when Assemblyman Charles Lavine called for Jon Cooper to run against Carl Marcellino for State Senate.  That may well be Coopers upcoming announcement in the days ahead.  Cooper did not say no to Lavine at the meeting!

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