Election Data Services posted their reapportionment projections yesterday…and there are some big surprises.
Polidata has a good summary
States gaining based upon July 1, 2009 estimates projected to April 1, 2010: AZ +1; FL +1; GA +1; NV +1; SC +1; TX +4; UT +1; WA +1.
States losing based upon July 1, 2009 estimates projected to April 1, 2010: IL (1); IA (1); LA (1); MA (1); MI (1); MN (1); NJ (1); NY (1); OH (2); PA (1).
Thus, changes in seats compared to the previous projections based upon 2008 estimates would be: AZ gains only 1 seat while MO stays even and OR stays even while WA gains 1 seat.
Check it out: Washington would gain a seat; Arizona only gains 1; Oregon doesn’t gain any.
This table is from the EDS PDF. 
From the table you can see that Washington jumps to 432nd or 433rd in all the estimates. Also, Missouri, which had been projected to lose a seat would not lose any. Texas is still projected to gain 4 seats, but that 4th seat is much more tenuous.
2010 is going to be very interesting….
When will the population estimates in the app be updated to reflect the new population estimates?
We’ll know the real thing before long!
I just saw this on CQ Politics, by Bob Benenson. He says that RI is projected to lose a seat, but that is incorrect. EDS says only that RI is now projected to be closer to losing a seat. But it still is not in the 5 seats closest to the 435 cutoff.
Other than that, it’s a decent discussion.
no matter what. I’m really worried that Tom Latham will carry a redrawn IA-03.
So South Carolina is still projected to gain a seat? Does anyone know if it will be easy for it to be redistricted as a safe/likely R? Or if it can be a likely Dem because of Demographic changes?