Some are beginning to talk up the possibility of the GOP not only taking the House but also the Senate this November. To do that they would have to win ten Democratic seats. In my view they currently lead in North Dakota, Nevada, Arkansas, Colorado and Delaware. Illinois and Pennsylvania are too close to call. Despite the loss of Massachusetts this week I still don’t think they will win all of these. But say for the sake of argument they did. They would then need three more from somewhere. Unless they can get fresh challengers in Washington, Wisconsin and more likely Indiana then they would have to win Connecticut, New York AND California to get control. To cut a long story short the gold standard of polling in the Golden State suggests the latter is very unlikely to happen.
Field Poll (1/5-17) MoE 3.3%
General Election
Barbara Boxer (D) 48%
Tom Campbell (R) 38%
Boxer (D) 50%
Carly Fiorina (R) 35%
Boxer (D) 51%
Chuck DeVore (R) 34%
The incumbent has a positive favorability rating of 48-39. The Republicans have far less name ID and only Campbell is in positive territory.
GOP Primary
Campbell 30%
Fiorina 25%
DeVore 6%
Undecided 39%
Has the California GOP suddenly taken a uber-sharp turn to the middle? I can’t imagine DeVore garnering that anemic a number, even at this early stage. I still think Boxer’s only Lean-to-Likely Dem against Campbell or Fiorina, but if she’s at 48% favorable in November, she’ll definitely win.