YouGovPolimetrix just released a metric ton of senate polls. Be very, very warned, though: YouGov polls on the Internet. We’ve generally derided this methodology in the past (take a look at Zogby’s absurd “Interactive” polls), so consider this strictly for fun.
Arkansas
Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, Baker (R) 37%
Lincoln (D-inc) 39%, Hendren (R) 37%
Lincoln (D-inc) 38%, Coleman (R) 34%
Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, Cox (R) 36%
Colorado
Bennet (D-inc) 35%, Norton (R) 38%
Romanoff (D) 33%, Norton (R) 39%
Connecticut
Blumenthal (D) 47%, McMahon (R) 35%
Blumenthal (D) 47%, Simmons (R) 34%
Delaware
Biden (D) 37%, Castle (R) 49%
Florida
Meek (D) 34%, Crist (R) 36%
Meek (D) 33%, Rubio (R) 40%
Louisiana
Melancon (D) 32%, Vitter (R) 52%
Missouri
Carnahan (D) 43%, Blunt (R) 39%
Carnahan (D) 40%, Purgason (R) 34%
Nevada
41% Reid (D-inc), 42% Lowden (R)
43% Reid (D-inc), 41% Tarkanian (R)
North Dakota
29% Pomeroy (D), 56% Hoeven (R)
30% Heitkamp (D), 58% Hoeven (R)
Ohio
31% Fisher (D), 37% Portman (R)
31% Brunner (D), 39% Portman (R)
Pennsylvania
39% Specter (D-inc), 40% Toomey (R)
33% Sestak (D), 37% Toomey (R)
Are these polls just like Zogby’s internet interactive polls meaning they are pretty much meaningless?
I love how these polls have no consistent bias. They show absurdly pro-Democratic results like Meek within the margin of error against Crist and Reid leading Tarkanian, yet they also show absurdly pro-Republican results like Blumenthal only leading by 12-13 and Portman leading Brunner by 8. The interesting thing is that I’m fairly sure some of YouGov’s 2008 polls were actually fairly accurate.
I wouldn’t dismiss yougov completely. They have a good track record in the UK and are one of our most respective and prolific pollsters (although here they use much larger sample sizes, at 2000). Although the internet panel approach to polling seems counter-intuitive, if the sampling is correct it can be effective. Of course they may not yet have got to grips with the nuances of US polling.
In the UK they have stood out because traditional telephone pollsters have a record of over-estimating the Labour vote. In any case I’d say they are much more credible than Zogby.
taken Jan 25, 2010 after Beau Biden opted to not run
Castle (R) 56%
Coons (D) 27%
Somebody tell me, PUHLEEZE, that this is NOT the poll Beau Biden saw that made him drop his metaphorical tail and run like a delta dog at an Iditerod reunion!