On my diary titled “The 2010 Mid-Term Elections, part 4: the House of Reps”, I polled SSP nation on how many seats (net) the Democrats would lose in the 2010 mid-term elections. Currently, the results are as follows:
11-20 seats: 11 votes
21-30 seats: 7 votes
31-40 seats: 4 votes
41-50 seats: 2 votes
I decided to compute the average number of seats in the House that the Democrats will lose (net) based on my poll results. Since it was more practical to ask SSP readers a range of seats that would be lost as opposed to a specific number, I’m using a median average for each range. This means that if you voted for 11-20 seats lost, I’m counting your specific number as 15 (and accordingly 21-30 seats will be 25, and so on).
Based on the above results, SSP nation believes that the Democrats will lose (net) 24 seats in the House. Since this is not entirely accurate, a more reliable range to consider is that we will lose (net) 22-27 seats. My original model showed that we would lose 30-35 seats, so on average SSP nation is more optimistic than my hypothetical election model.
I would like to determine the number of seats we will lose in 2010, but to get that number I’m interested in how many Republican seats will switch over to us in 2010. Listed below are 4 seats that I think we can (and probably will) win in November.
(1) LA-02. Cao may be a moderate, but this is a strong Democratic district.
(2) DE-AL. Carney is a strong candidate and should easily win.
(3) IL-10. This is an open seat in a moderate Democratic district.
(4) PA-06. Gerlach was to run for Governor, now he’s running for his current seat. Moderate blue district. A flip-flop may not go over too well.
There are several other seats that could come into play. Several of the California districts (CA-03, CA-44, CA-45, CA-50), WA-08, FL-12, MI-11, SC-02, OH-12, and MN-03. These districts are vulnerable for various reasons, most notably that the district is trending blue or that the Republican Rep is a loose cannon. Democratic obstacles in these districts include (1) the power of incumbency, (2)quality of our candidates, (3)the national momentum towards the Republicans, and (4) fundraising (Note: this includes the size of any DCCC contributions for a specific district).
Please vote on my poll below. I’m very appreciative of your comments, so please join in!
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I think these three will flip. If the Dems couldn’t win PA-06 last year, I don’t see it flipping in this environment.
Voted for four pickups in total, though. At the moment, I think the midterms will end up being pretty bad for us altogether, but even in wave elections the losing party still makes pickups (look at KS-2 and TX-22 in ’08). I’m saying four because there always tends to be a surprise somewhere that gets everyone. Maybe this year it’ll be CA-44 or NE-2.
the Dems are going to have to make up some serious ground. People talk about that as an opportunity and I don’t really see why. It’s a very rich district, they just lean Democrat for certain national elections for social issues.
Not to mention there are no legit Democratic candidates as we speak either. MN-6 is a better opportunity, due to the Baachman factor.