The census should show that New Jersey will lose one congressional district. Currently, New Jersey has 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans representing it in the House of Representatives. The independent comission should aim for a bipartisan plan. I combined the districts of Rush Holt (D) and Leonard Lance (R) in a district that leans Democratic but Lance can win in it since it contains most of his current district. I strengthened all the other incumbents and kept the 10th and 12th district African American and Hispanic majority respectively. For this map, I tried to not make it too convoluted because realistically, I do not see that happening. Also, I calculated the partisan data for these districts by town and I tried not to split the towns. I had to in a few cases but the partisan data should be accurate most of the time. Also, I calculated it for the top two candidates only. Here are some helpful links
For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…
For results by town: http://njelections.org/2008_ge…
For map of current congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congres…
For map of the state: maps.google.com
Southern New Jersey
Camden Area
District 1 Rob Andrews (D) Haddon Heights
Demographics: 17% African American, 10% Hispanic and 68% White
Partisan data: Obama McCain Percentages
Camden 132785 57336 70%-30%
Gloucester 73201 56669 56%-44%
Salem 3927 2309 63%-37%
Total 209913 116314 64%-36%
Communities of interest: Camden, Pennesauken
The district grows a bit more Republican. I removed the Democratic neighborhoods in Burlington County to help strengthen the 3rd district. I also added more of Gloucester County and the areas I added are marginal. I also added a heavily Democratic slice of Salem County. Overall, I made mostly minor changes so Rob Andrews should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democrat
District 2 Frank LoBiondo (R) Ventor
Demographics: 9% African American, 11% Hispanic and 76% White
Partisan data: Obama McCain
Cumberland 21720 14211 60%-40%
Cape May 22893 27288 46%-54%
Atlantic 58904 41306 59%-41%
Burlington 13718 16638 45%-55%
Ocean 60834 85988 41%-59%
Salem 1882 2733 41%-59%
Total 179951 188164 49%-51%
Communities of interest: Vineland, Atlantic City, Berkeley
LoBiondo looks safe in his current district but since Obama won his current district 54%-45%, a bipartisan plan would strengthen him. To strengthen LoBiondo, I mostly removed Democratic areas. I removed Democratic parts of Salem County and some Democratic areas in Cumberland County. I also removed small parts of Atlantic County but Obama barely won them. The main additions in Burlington County are Medford and Southampton which lean Republican. To completely shore up LoBiondo, I added about half of Ocean County and McCain won a 25,000 vote margin in the portion I added. These changes help boost McCain’s performance from 45% to 51%, ensuring LoBiondo safety and his successor’s safety too. Status is Safe Republican.
District 3 John Adler (D) Cherry Hill
Demographics: 20% African American, 10% Hispanic and 64% White
Partisan data: Obama McCain
Salem 10235 9774 51%-49%
Atlantic 8926 8596 51%-49%
Gloucester 4065 3646 53%-47%
Cumberland 13199 8149 62%-38%
Camden 26474 16483 62%-38%
Burlington 116496 71652 62%-38%
Mercer 23577 2157 92%-8%
Total 202972 120457 63%-37%
Communities of interest: Cherry Hill, Burlington, Trenton
I definitely strengthened Adler so he will have no problems with reelection. I strengthened him a bit too much though. I removed all of heavily Republican Ocean County while adding territory in South Jersey that leans Democratic as well as more Democratic territory in Burlington County. I also added Trenton which voted 92% for Obama so that brings up the Democratic total. I had to give Adler Trenton because I do not see Christie signing a bill with Trenton in the 7th district. Overall, Adler should have no problem in this district. Corzine won it in his unsuccessful Gubernatorial run in 2009. Status is Safe Democratic.
Central New Jersey
District 4 Chris Smith (R) Hamilton
Demographics 8% Hispanic, 83% White
Partisan Data: Obama McCain
Ocean 49355 74689 40%-60%
Monmouth 85774 106223 45%-55%
Mercer 3406 3099 52%-48%
Total 138535 184011 43%-57%
Communities of interest: Toms River, Lakewood, Freehold
Chris Smith seemed safe already, even with Democratic parts of Mercer and Burlington Counties inside his district. He lives in the Democratic parts of the old district. I removed his home from the district and placed it in the 7th. He would probably not mind moving though as long as his district is safer. I increased McCain’s percentage from 52% to 57% by removing most of the Democratic areas along the Delaware River and adding more Republican areas in Monmouth County. Smith should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Republican.
Northern New Jersey
Northwest New Jersey
District 5 Scott Garrett (R) Wantage
Demographics: Hispanic 6%, Asian 6%, 85% White
Partisan Data: Obama McCain
Sussex 28840 44184 40%-60%
Warren 20628 27500 43%-57%
Morris 19274 26364 42%-58%
Passaic 35201 44572 44%-56%
Bergen 60808 76821 44%-56%
Total 164751 219441 43%-57%
Communities of Interest: Newton, Rockaway and Montvale
This district does not go through large changes but the few I made strengthen Garrett. I removed marginal towns in Bergen County such as Bergenfield and Ridgewood. I mostly did this because the 9th district needed room to expand. I added in some Republican townships in Morris County. I also kept Garrett’s home, Wantage in the district. Increasing the McCain percentage here should keep Garrett safe for until he retires. Status is Safe Republican.
District 6 Frank Pallone (D) Long Branch
Demographics: 11% African American, 13% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 58% White
Partisan Data: Obama McCain
Monmouth 62963 54210 54%-46%
Middlesex 102139 63016 62%-38%
Total 165102 117226 58%-42%
Communities of Interest: Edison, Asbury Park, New Brunswick
Pallone’s district gets a bit weaker. I removed Plainfield to give more African Americans to the 10th and since I tried to keep town boundries intact, I removed the small Democratic slice of Somerset County. I replaced it with Woodbridge and Edison which lean Democratic even though Christie barely won them. Still, Pallone is entrenched here and since the minority population is growing quickly here (the white population was 65% in 2000,) this district should grow more Democratic. Pallone should not have trouble. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 7 Rush Holt (D) Hopewell vs. Leonard Lance (R) Clinton
Demographics: 9% African American, 8% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 69% White
Partisan Data: Obama McCain
Mercer 80943 44967 64%-36%
Middlesex 66727 47797 58%-42%
Hunterdon 22211 28800 44%-56%
Somerset 44197 31149 59%-41%
Burlington 1005 1336 43%-57%
Total 215083 154049 58%-42%
Communities of Interest: Ewing, North Brunswick
This district may at first look like a sure win for Holt because he has represented his district since the 90’s and this district contains most of his old territory. Lance is a freshman but he is a moderate. He also ran a great campaign in 2008, winning against Linda Stender (D) by nine points in a district Obama barely carried. Stender was a good candidate and she almost beat Mike Ferguson (R) who formerly represented the 7th district in 2006. Also, the territory here is less Democratic than it looks with high income independents who swung heavily toward Christie in the Gubernatorial race last year. About the areas in the district, I had to remove Trenton because I think Christie would never sign a plan putting Lance in the same district as Trenton. Still, the district is Democratic with other parts of Mercer County as well as Democratic areas in Middlesex County. Overall, this should be a tough battle but Holt should win. Status is Lean Democratic.
Urban New Jersey
8th District Bill Pascrell (D) Paterson
Demographics: 11% African American, 29% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 53% White
Partisan Data: Obama McCain
Passaic 78056 27980 74%-26%
Essex 70,000 (+- 1,000)42,000 (+-1,000)62%-38%
Union 37,000 (+-1,000) 35,000 (+-1,000)51%-49%
Bergen 7888 8031 50%-50%
Total 193,000 (+-2,000) 113,000(+-2,000)63%-37%
Communities of Interest: Westfield, West Orange, Paterson, Clifton
I had to split some towns in this district so the vote totals are not exact. Overall, his district gets more Democratic by a few points. I removed all the Republican parts of Passaic County, leaving only Paterson, Clifton, Passaic and a few small Democratic suburbs. Obama won 74% of the vote in the 8th district’s part of Passaic. I added most of western Union County which Obama and McCain split but most of the time, Republicans should win that area. I also added a slice of Bergen County which is also split between Obama and McCain. These changes should not affect Pascrell much because Paterson and neighborhoods in Essex County keep this district strongly Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.
9th District Steven Rothman (D) Fair Lawn
Demographics: 7% African American, 20% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 56% White
Partisan Data: Obama McCain
Bergen 154063 100073 61%-39%
Hudson 26,000 (+-1,000)13,000(+-1,000)67%-33%
Total 180,000 (+-1,000)113,000 (+-1,000)62%-38%
Communities of Interest: Jersey City, Englewood, Hackensack, Garfield
Rothman’s district gets a touch more Republican but does not make many changes. I gave the district some northern Bergen County suburbs such as Bergenfield and Tenafly which lean Democratic. The only areas I removed were Fairview and North Bergen which are heavily Democratic. These changes should not affect the composition of the district strongly. Status is Safe Democratic.
10th District Donald Payne (D) Newark
Demographics: 55% African American, 17% Hispanic and 23% White
Partisan Data: 82% Obama, 18% McCain
Communities of Interest: Plainfield, Rahway, Linden, Elizabeth, East Orange, Newark
Since I split most of the towns in the district, I decided to just estimate the partisan data. Also, Payne’s district changes a bit. I did not remove many areas from it but I added Plainfield and the marginal Union County suburbs for a few reasons: Plainfield has an African American majority and since the 10th is New Jersey’s African American majority district, I decided it should be included. Also, the 10th helps shore up the 8th by taking in some marginal suburbs. I am not sure if the New Jersey legislature would go for this but since it would help keep the 10th African American majority, they would go for it. The district still remains heavily Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.
11th District Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Harding
Demographics: 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 75% White
Partisan Data: Obama McCain
Morris 93001 105967 47%-53%
Somerset 35121 38936 47%-53%
Hunterdon 7565 10292 42%-58%
Middlesex 2837 3185 47%-53%
Union 8295 9195 47%-53%
Essex 15347 17252 47%-53%
Total 162166 184827 47%-53%
Communities of Interest: Dover, Morristown
I weakened Frelinghuysen a bit by removing all of Republican Sussex and Warren Counties. I also removed parts of Morris County too. The new areas I put in the district are mostly in Somerset, Union and Essex Counties. The new areas are marginal but Obama overperformed in most of the district so Frelinghuysen should still be very safe. Status is Safe Republican.
12th District Albio Sires (D) West New York
Demographics: 10% African American, 53% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 30% White
Partisan Data: Obama 76% McCain 23%
Communities of Interest: Linden, Elizabeth, Jersey City, Hoboken, Newark
Since I split too many towns in this district, I had to estimate the partisan data. Overall, the district experiences few changes. I added all of North Bergen as well as Fairview in Bergen County. I also added a few neighborhoods in Elizabeth but besides this, I made few changes. Sires’s district gets more Hispanic and he remains safe. Status is Safe Democratic.
is done by a commission which tends to aim for incumbent protection anyway. The governor and legislature don’t participate.