Tea Party in Nevada = Harry Reid Victory?

Looks like Tea Party activists didn’t learn from NY-23

http://politicalwire.com/archi…

Political Wire says that they’ve registered as an official party for this November and will have a candidate. Further down in the comments thread of the Political Wire story, a comment says that Jon Ralston is reporting that their candidate will be Jon Ashjian. Apparently he is the president of a few companies in Las Vegas.

Does anything think a Tea Party candidate will gain traction in an election in Nevada? For some reason Nevada doesn’t strike me as Tea Party-land, but I could be wrong.

I think even if this guys only musters 1-2% of the vote it could be a huge difference. I’m giving Reid a 55-45 shot at being re-elected with a Tea Party candidate on this ballot.

What say you?

15 thoughts on “Tea Party in Nevada = Harry Reid Victory?”

  1. It’s not like Sue Lowden or Danny Tarkanian are RINOs. Or establishment-types. They’re basically conservative outsiders; perhaps not wildly populist or libertarian, but they’re not Mark Kirk or Mike Castle either. When I played around with some NV-Sen #’s earlier in the week, I came up with Reid likely garnering 44% of the vote. Meaning the Tea Party candidate here would need to garner 12% to give Reid a plurality victory…seems a bit unlikely to me.

  2. This is my “upset special” if you can call the majority leader winning re-election an upset. 3 reasons:

    – Money. Reid has a huge advantage and will be able to raise as much as he needs.

    – C grade opponents. Lowden and Tarkanion are not top tier opponents IMO. Right now they are just Generic Republicans, wait until Ried has a chance to use his huge warchest to highlite their warts.

    – Unions. Las Vegas is one of the most Unionized cities in America. In what could be a low turnout election having the union machine behind you can make a big differnce.

  3. Reid will have trouble getting over 45% so the Tea Party candidate would have to get at least 10% of the vote to make a difference. I just don’t see that happening.

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