Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/22-24, likely voters, no trendlines):
Brad Ellsworth (D): 36
Dan Coats (R): 37
Undecided: 27Brad Ellsworth (D): 34
John Hostettler (R): 40
Undecided: 26Baron Hill (D): 37
Dan Coats (R): 37
Undecided: 26Baron Hill (D): 36
John Hostettler (R): 42
Undecided: 22Jim Schellinger (D): 34
Dan Coats (R): 39
Undecided: 27Jim Schellinger (D): 33
John Hostettler (R): 44
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±4%)
This poll went into the field before Indiana Democrats coalesced around Rep. Brad Ellsworth – and before Rep. Baron Hill took himself out of the running. Architect and 2008 Dem gubernatorial candidate Jim Schellinger also won’t be our nominee, but the inclusion of his name lets us see how a non-DC name fares. And the bottom line is that it’s competitive all around.
Perhaps even more interesting, though, is that lunatic John Hostettler, who was teabagging before they even invented tea, performs better than creaky beltway creature and North Carolina resident Dan Coats. While the CW says we should always be rooting for teabaggers in GOP primaries, Coats’ abysmal resume has me questioning that assumption. Hoss really is nucking futs, though, and as a notoriously feckless fundraiser, he probably can’t raise nearly as much money as Coats can. I’m torn – I want them both to win!
(Additional discussion in hoosierdem’s diary.)
There is NO WAY he wins. I’m telling you. We hate him! Conservatives hate the man with a passion. His only base is the Paulists, and they aren’t even nuts about him! If Coats is not the nominee, Stutzman will be.
Coats’s numbers aside, he’ll just be a more disciplined candidate and a better fundraiser. I mean really, you don’t lose a district like his by 20 points unless you’re really bad.
turned out to be absolutely perfect from a Dem. partisan perspective.
The Indiana GOP is stuck with two flawed candidates.
And the Indiana Democratic party have rallied around their man with almost no hard feelings.
All we had was that 24 hour scare when it seemed possible that the nutty cafe owner lady might have successfully got her signatures.
Now Bayh can do us all one more last favor, and help his fellow Dems with some of his massive campaign war chest.
But I’m going with hoping for Coats to win. I think being a lobbyist for banks and forign governments is going to be more damaging than just being crazy.
But I like Ellsworth’s chances against either one.
For all those that said the only way to win is with conservaDEM Ellsworth, it is interesting to see Hill running the same or better than Ellsworth…I think in November we will see that drinking the “Ellsworth is the only way to win” kool-aid was a mistake. He is too conservative, never run statewide, hasn’t run an election in a tough political environment and doesn’t excite the base (unlike Hill).
No surprise that he’s outperforming Coats, who no one seems to give a shit about. I think the fmr. Senator is gonna have a real problem getting out of a GOP primary here alive. I dunno how many rank-and-file types he can count on to win the nod, especially when there’s so little enthusiasm for his candidacy. Assuming Coats continues to implode and Hostettler does score the nomination, I suspect we’ll be seeing something like…
Republican – 45%
Democrat – 35%
Independent – 20%
Ellsworth – 15/95/60 = 52%
Hostettler – 85/5/40 = 48%
Ellsworth is the nominee so the arguement is pointless, but running a pro-Stupak amendment, anti-choice, anti-embryonoc stem cell research, anti-cap and trade, anti-stimulus…etc etc…is no way to get the folks you need to bust their tails for you (like they did for Obama). so why is he running as a Democrat? i’m confused
I don’t want to count my chickens 8 months before an election, but I think we’ve easily got a better than 50/50 shot to hold this seat. Coats and Hostettler are too damaged to win against a figure like Ellsworth. I know he’s worse than Bayh on a number of social issues (his vote against stem cell research gives me major pause), but I can’t help but feel good about where we stand in this race.
…given the truly awful Coats rollout. He also seems like the type of cardboard establishment candidate tailor made for someone like Hostettler to upset in a Republican primary.
Coats 2010 reminds me of Mondale 2002. An idea way past it’s prime.
Ellsworth will catch on fire in Indiana and will win the general election. He might not win the race with Bayh’s previous margin of victory, but he will still win.