Still clearing the decks…
Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (2/22-24, likely voters, 1/5-7 in parens):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (41)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 51 (49)
Undecided: 9 (10)Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (40)
Sue Lowden (R): 52 (50)
Undecided: 9 (10)Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (40)
Sharron Angle (R): 44 (45)
Undecided: 14 (NA)
(MoE: ±4%)
The GOP primary:
Danny Tarkanian (R): 29 (28)
Sue Lowden (R): 47 (26)
Sharron Angle (R): 8 (14)
John Chachas (R): 1 (0)
Bill Parson (R): 0
Undecided: 15 (32)
(MoE: ±6%)
There’s also been some hype over a three-way hypothetical that Mase-Dix threw in the mix here, pitting Reid against a generic “GOP nominee” and a generic “Tea Party” nominee. That permutation found Reid leading the GOP candidate by 36-32, with the teabagger perched at 18%. Personally, I don’t take too much stock in such numbers — the effect of these third-party types can be overstated in early, hypothetically-worded polls like this one. I don’t think Reid can count on a teabag-induced path to victory here.
And for that gube race…
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 30 (23)
Brian Sandoval (R): 37 (39)
Michael Montadon (R): 9 (7)
Undecided: 24 (31)
(MoE: ±6%)
I’m pretty surprised to see Gibbons climb up once again (he was at a dismal 18% in December). Perhaps he’s getting some sympathy votes for his recently-professed born-again virgin status. Still, I’d be pretty surprised if Gibbons can find the votes he needs from that undecided column.
Rory Reid (D): 29 (31)
Brian Sandoval (R): 51 (53)
Undecided: 20 (16)Rory Reid (D): 42 (43)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 38 (36)
Undecided: 20 (21)
(MoE: ±4%)
It’s pretty brutal that Rory is barely beating (and losing ground to!) an incumbent governor with a 17/51 favorable rating. Can anyone remind me again how we got saddled with this dweeb as the Democratic nominee?
Don’t underestimate the Reid money and gotv, these polls showing Harry way behind haven’t taken this into account. Also I don’t buy Gibbons gaining ground against Reid or Sandoval…governors nationwide keep seeing their ratings drop and Gibbons with Nevada’s high unemployment and his divorce and ethics problems should be no exception. Sandoval will be the GOP nominee.
are going to drag Dina Titus down with them in November.
My current predix here:
Democrat – 35%
Republican – 35%
Independent – 30%
Ashjian – 0/20/20 = 11%
Lowden – 10/80/45 = 46%
Reid – 90/0/35 = 43%
I could see Tarkanian still having a shot at the GOP nod, but Lowden seems to be getting her name out more effectively. Angle’s hopes were probably killed by Ashjian’s entry.
Because Democratic politicians would rather lose than grow a spine.