In part one, I looked at the state legislatures currently held by Democrats. This time around, I’m taking a look at state houses held by the Republicans. Unfortunately for Democrats, it’s not very fertile ground for pickups. Most of the state legislatures that the Democrats had a chance at in 2006 and 2008 are out of reach now, given the worse climate and number of struggling governors and open gubernatorial seats.
Same notes as last time; Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia will have their elections in 2011, while the Kansas and New Mexico Senates are both elected in Presidential years, and the Nebraska unicameral is nonpartisan. For the current composition, Democrats are listed first, Republicans second, and independents/others listed third. Vacancies are not noted, and the numbers were pulled from Wikipedia, so they’re not perfect. Also, I am using the generic term “House” for the lower house of each legislature. I know some are called Assembly, it’s just simpler to do it this way.
Tossup
Montana Senate (Currently 23/27) – One of the chambers that flipped to the Republicans in 2008, the Montana Senate is like the House, closely divided. With no major statewide election on the ballot (just Denny Rehberg, who won’t have a serious challenger), it’ll be down to legislative candidates to get voters out.
Lean Republican
Alaska Senate (Currently 10/10) and House (Currently 18/22) – Even as the McCain/Palin ticket dominated the statewide vote, the Democrats actually managed to pick up a seat in each of the houses of the legislature. Everpresent ethics problems have been dogging the VECO-lovin’ Republicans, and the Senate Republicans are so divided that a coalition of all ten Democrats and six of the ten Republicans governs the chamber, leaving the other four Senators out in the cold. It’s looking less and less likely that the gubernatorial race will be competitive, thanks to Sean Parnell’s ability to not be Sarah Palin, but the narrow margins in the legislature should be watched.
Michigan Senate (Currently 16/22) – Thanks to term limits kicking in, a ridiculous number of seats will be open in 2010 — 29 of the 38 seats, 17 Republicans and 12 Democrats. This pretty much makes the chamber up for grabs, although Republicans have the advantage due to currently having the majority, plus winning Mark Schauer’s open Senate seat last year.
Likely Republican
Kentucky Senate (Currently 17/20/1) – Steve Beshear has been playing Godfather with Senate Republicans, giving them offers they couldn’t refuse (judgeships with great pension plans) in exchange for the shot at picking up their seats. His magic seems to have worn off, however, with the last special being a Republican hold. Of the seats up in 2010, Democrats are contesting eight out of 11, while Republicans are going after six of the seven Democrat-held seats. The Independent is up too, and it looks to be a three-way affair. While it will only take two seats for the Democrats to tie, and three to take over, I’m not sure where they can find them.
Safe Republican
Arizona Senate (Currently 12/18) and House (Currently 24/36)
Florida Senate (Currently 14/26) and House (Currently 44/75)
Georgia Senate (Currently 22/34) and House (Currently 74/105/1)
Idaho Senate (Currently 7/28) and House (Currently 18/52)
Indiana Senate (Currently 17/33)
Kansas House (Currently 49/76)
Missouri Senate (Currently 11/23) and House (Currently 74/89)
North Dakota Senate (Currently 21/26) and House (Currently 35/58)
Ohio Senate (Currently 12/21)
Oklahoma Senate (Currently 22/26) and House (Currently 39/62)
Pennsylvania Senate (Currently 20/30)
South Carolina Senate (Currently 19/27) and House (Currently 52/72)
South Dakota Senate (Currently 14/21) and House (Currently 24/46)
Tennessee Senate (Currently 14/19) and House (Currently 48/50/1)
Texas Senate (Currently 12/19) and House (Currently 73/77)
Utah Senate (Currently 8/20) and House (Currently 22/53)
Wyoming Senate (Currently 7/23) and House (Currently 19/41)
Not much to say here. If the Democrats couldn’t win these bodies in 2006 and 2008, it’s not happening in 2010. The Tennesee and Texas Houses are close, but 2010 is looking likely to be a bad year for Democrats in Tennessee, and in Texas, Democrats failed to challenge 55 of the 77 Republicans in the House, while Republicans are contesting about half of the 73 seats held by Democrats.
I personally do my best to make sure all state legislatures are up to date with vacancies and party composition, so for my part I think the numbers are all accurate 🙂
were both chosen with Democratic support. If those coalitions can somehow hold, Democrats could have some say in redistricting. Therefore, to write both off as Safe Republican would be unfortunate.
Does anyone know who he ended up caucusing with?