For purposes of this diary, the Mid-Atlantic states are defined as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland. Since 1992, all four of these states have awarded their electoral votes to the Democratic candidate. That hasn’t always been the case: as recent as 1984 and 1988, all four of these states were won by Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush, respectively. Over the last 50 years, we have seen considerable gains in certain elections by both the Democrats and Republicans. I imagine that this trend will continue in years to come.
House Representation Realignment
As mentioned in part 1 of this topic, in 1960 the Democrats controlled approximately 60% of the house seats. I have inserted below the final results of certain general elections.
After each US House election, Mid-Atlantic
1960: 27(D), 25(R)
1964: 33(D), 18(R)
1966: 28(D), 23(R)
1972: 25(D), 24(R)
1976: 33(D), 16(R)
1980: 28(D), 21(R)
1982: 30(D), 16(R)
1990: 25(D), 21(R)
1992: 22(D), 21(R)
1994: 20(D), 23(R)
2004: 20(D), 21(R)
2006: 24(D), 17(R)
2008: 27(D), 14(R)
Beginning in 1960, the Democrats barely held a majority of seats in this region, although nationally they controlled 60% of the house seats. By 1964, the JFK/LBJ administration had earned considerable trust within this region, resulting in nearly a 2/3 majority of Democratic seats. The 1966 elections hurt (probably a strong “dead cat” bounce, plus growing uncertainty about the LBJ war policy). By 1972, Nixon’s policies have converted many of this electorate to his side, only to lose their gains in full by 1976 (the Watergate years). The Reagan revolution started to bloom by 1980, and the Republicans had significant strength in this area (sans the 1982 election, where Reagan’s approval ratings were hit by a bad economy). By 1994, the Republicans gained a majority of this region’s seats, not relinquishing control until 2006. During the 2006 and 2008 elections, the Democrats gained 7 additional seats, coming close to holding 2/3 of this region’s house seats.
Senate Representation Realignment
After each US Senate election, Mid-Atlantic
1960: 2(D), 6(R)
1964: 4(D), 4(R)
1966: 4(D), 4(R)
1972: 2(D), 6(R)
1976: 3(D), 5(R)
1980: 4(D), 4(R)
1982: 4(D), 4(R)
1990: 5(D), 3(R)
1992: 6(D), 2(R)
1994: 5(D), 3(R)
2004: 6(D), 2(R)
2006: 7(D), 1(R)
2008: 7(D), 1(R)
With Arlen Specter switching parties in April 2009, the Democrats currenlty hold all 8 Senate seats in this region. At one time the Republicans held their own in occupying the Senate seats in this region, but that’s mostly because the Republicans candidates were considered more in line with the Rockefeller Republican image. However, the Rockefeller Republicans lost their powers by the time of the Reagan revolution, and as a result they became a dying breed.
Conclusion:
The Mid-Atlantic region should be considered a “blue region”. For the most part, this region identifies more with the Democratic brand than the Republican brand. Since the Republicans have shown little desire to moderate their image, I personally imagine that the Dems will control this region for many more years. Unfortunately, the Dems have little areas to grow. We might be able to gain 1 more seat in PA and NJ, but we will have to play more on defense. There are probably 5-7 house seats currently in the hands of Democrats that will be competitive in the next few election cycles. We will have to play a lot of Defense in the next few election cycles. Both of the NJ Senators are not overly popular, keeping Specter’s seat will be a tough proposition, and we have a Republican running for the Delaware Senate seat that has a moderate image. I don’t believe that Tommey will defeat Specter, but PA has once before elected a Santorum that is in the same mold as Tommey.
Overall, this is a good region for Democrats, but we can’t take anything for granted. We are almost tapped out in areas to grow, but we must defend our seats or the Republicans might gain a foothold in this region.
if they pick up DE1 (Castle) and PA6 (Gerlach) while successfully defending MD1 (Kratovil), PA7 (Sestak), PA11 (Kanjorski), and PA12 (Murtha). Under favorable circumstances (including a favorable redistricting for 2012), they could add MD6 (Bartlett), NJ2 (LoBiando), and PA15 (Dent), so there still is some room for growth.
but politics has become such a cultural thing that I really think we’ll be able to take every region of New Jersey someday. Granted I haven’t been there, but I know people from Morris and Monmouth Counties, and they def aren’t like their parents. Eventually I have a feeling that all of NE, all of NY, all of NJ, DE, all of East PA, all of Maryland outside the really crazy areas, DC, and all of NOVA will become like the new solid south for the Democrats. It’s just such a cultural thing now that I still think we have a lot of room to grow in this region over the next 10-20 years, barring some type of realignment.
vote in 2010, seeing as how they’ve been moving our way for a while but got swept up in the Republican tide for 2009.
From a Bush state in 1988 to one of Obama’s best in 20 years. If I could study one state and why it has shifted so rapidly it would be Maryland.
By 2012, the National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes–that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The Constitution gives every state the power to allocate its electoral votes for president, as well as to change state law on how those votes are awarded.
The bill is currently endorsed by over 1,707 state legislators (in 48 states) who have sponsored and/or cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). The recent Washington Post, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard University poll shows 72% support for direct nationwide election of the President. Support for a national popular vote is strong in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed in recent polls in closely divided battleground states: Colorado– 68%, Iowa –75%, Michigan– 73%, Missouri– 70%, New Hampshire– 69%, Nevada– 72%, New Mexico– 76%, North Carolina– 74%, Ohio– 70%, Pennsylvania — 78%, Virginia — 74%, and Wisconsin — 71%; in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes): Alaska – 70%, DC – 76%, Delaware –75%, Maine — 77%, Nebraska — 74%, New Hampshire –69%, Nevada — 72%, New Mexico — 76%, Rhode Island — 74%, and Vermont — 75%; in Southern and border states: Arkansas –80%, Kentucky — 80%, Mississippi –77%, Missouri — 70%, North Carolina — 74%, and Virginia — 74%; and in other states polled: California — 70%, Connecticut — 74% , Massachusetts — 73%, Minnesota – 75%, New York — 79%, Washington — 77%, and West Virginia- 81%.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 29 state legislative chambers, in 19 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Oregon, and both houses in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington. These five states possess 61 electoral votes — 23% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote…