For purposes of this diary, the Mid-Atlantic states are defined as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland. Since 1992, all four of these states have awarded their electoral votes to the Democratic candidate. That hasn’t always been the case: as recent as 1984 and 1988, all four of these states were won by Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush, respectively. Over the last 50 years, we have seen considerable gains in certain elections by both the Democrats and Republicans. I imagine that this trend will continue in years to come.
House Representation Realignment
As mentioned in part 1 of this topic, in 1960 the Democrats controlled approximately 60% of the house seats. I have inserted below the final results of certain general elections.
After each US House election, Mid-Atlantic
1960: 27(D), 25(R)
1964: 33(D), 18(R)
1966: 28(D), 23(R)
1972: 25(D), 24(R)
1976: 33(D), 16(R)
1980: 28(D), 21(R)
1982: 30(D), 16(R)
1990: 25(D), 21(R)
1992: 22(D), 21(R)
1994: 20(D), 23(R)
2004: 20(D), 21(R)
2006: 24(D), 17(R)
2008: 27(D), 14(R)
Beginning in 1960, the Democrats barely held a majority of seats in this region, although nationally they controlled 60% of the house seats. By 1964, the JFK/LBJ administration had earned considerable trust within this region, resulting in nearly a 2/3 majority of Democratic seats. The 1966 elections hurt (probably a strong “dead cat” bounce, plus growing uncertainty about the LBJ war policy). By 1972, Nixon’s policies have converted many of this electorate to his side, only to lose their gains in full by 1976 (the Watergate years). The Reagan revolution started to bloom by 1980, and the Republicans had significant strength in this area (sans the 1982 election, where Reagan’s approval ratings were hit by a bad economy). By 1994, the Republicans gained a majority of this region’s seats, not relinquishing control until 2006. During the 2006 and 2008 elections, the Democrats gained 7 additional seats, coming close to holding 2/3 of this region’s house seats.
Senate Representation Realignment
After each US Senate election, Mid-Atlantic
1960: 2(D), 6(R)
1964: 4(D), 4(R)
1966: 4(D), 4(R)
1972: 2(D), 6(R)
1976: 3(D), 5(R)
1980: 4(D), 4(R)
1982: 4(D), 4(R)
1990: 5(D), 3(R)
1992: 6(D), 2(R)
1994: 5(D), 3(R)
2004: 6(D), 2(R)
2006: 7(D), 1(R)
2008: 7(D), 1(R)
With Arlen Specter switching parties in April 2009, the Democrats currenlty hold all 8 Senate seats in this region. At one time the Republicans held their own in occupying the Senate seats in this region, but that’s mostly because the Republicans candidates were considered more in line with the Rockefeller Republican image. However, the Rockefeller Republicans lost their powers by the time of the Reagan revolution, and as a result they became a dying breed.
Conclusion:
The Mid-Atlantic region should be considered a “blue region”. For the most part, this region identifies more with the Democratic brand than the Republican brand. Since the Republicans have shown little desire to moderate their image, I personally imagine that the Dems will control this region for many more years. Unfortunately, the Dems have little areas to grow. We might be able to gain 1 more seat in PA and NJ, but we will have to play more on defense. There are probably 5-7 house seats currently in the hands of Democrats that will be competitive in the next few election cycles. We will have to play a lot of Defense in the next few election cycles. Both of the NJ Senators are not overly popular, keeping Specter’s seat will be a tough proposition, and we have a Republican running for the Delaware Senate seat that has a moderate image. I don’t believe that Tommey will defeat Specter, but PA has once before elected a Santorum that is in the same mold as Tommey.
Overall, this is a good region for Democrats, but we can’t take anything for granted. We are almost tapped out in areas to grow, but we must defend our seats or the Republicans might gain a foothold in this region.