CA-Gov, CA-Sen: Narrow Leads for Brown, Boxer

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/8-10, likely voters, 8/9-12, 2009 in parentheses):

For CA-Gov:

Meg Whitman (R): 52 (24)

Steve Poizner (R): 19 (9)

Tom Campbell (R): NA (19)

(MoE: ±5.0%)

Jerry Brown (D): 45 (42)

Meg Whitman (R): 41 (36)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (43)

Steve Poizner (R): 33 (34)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

In the Republican primary, both candidates are becoming better well known, though Tom Campbell’s exit from the Governor’s race seems to have benefited Meg Whitman quite a bit. Whitman seems to be going for the “moderate” mantle here, with Poizner running to her right.

Gov. Moonbeam continues to lead Whitman narrowly and Poizner by a somewhat larger margin. Poizner’s posturing may be hurting him in the general election though, as his favorables have moved from 35 to 37, while his unfavorables have jumped from 27 to 40, putting him in net negative territory. Poizner had been keeping pace with Indies at 36/35, but Brown’s taken the clear advantage, with Indies now breaking 46/30 in his favor.

Whitman has made herself better known, with “no opinion” of her down to 14 from 29; her favorables are now a solid 51/35 (up from 41/30). Brown’s also in net positive territory though, at a solid 52/40.

For CA-Sen:

Tom Campbell (R): 33 (NA)

Carly Fiorina (R): 24 (29)

Chuck DeVore (R): 7 (17)

(MoE: ±5.0%)

Barbara Boxer (D): 47

Tom Campbell (R): 43

Barbara Boxer (D): 49 (52)

Carly Fiorina (R): 40 (31)

Barbara Boxer (D): 49 (53)

Chuck DeVore (R): 39 (29)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

The biggest news in the primary is former 15th CD Rep. Tom Campbell’s entry into the race, where he’s leapfrogged into first place, with his gain coming at both Fiorina and DeVore’s expense.

Campbell – with his base in Santa Clara County – carries his strength to the general as well. Somewhat troubling for Dems is his strength among Independents, where he narrowly edges Boxer 45-43. Carlyfornia Dreamin has turned somewhat into the Pacific Coast Gaffeway recently, and it’s taking a toll on her favorables. Fiorina was already in negative territory at 22/29 in August, but she’s not exactly winning people over. She’s added +13 to her favorables, but +14 to her unfavorables.

Chuck DeVore continues to be a non-factor in the general, he’s also in net negative territory at 34/42. If by some miracle he pulls it out of the primary, I think we’ll be looking at something similar to Boxer-Jones in 2004.

Barbara Boxer’s favorables aren’t the best at 50/45, but that’s more than Carly or Chuck can claim. DiFi’s not doing much better though, at 49/44, though Obama remains popular at 60/32 (which is probably keeping has national approval from dropping into the 40’s).

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Gov | CA-Sen