CA: Non-biased redistricting, a.k.a. Will We Actually Benefit?

Assuming that California neither gains nor loses seats, how would a non-partisan redistricting (a.k.a. as little county/city splitting as possible, although the way CA is on the redistricting app makes pieces appear randomly that shouldn’t be in the district…i’m sorry about that.)

Also, non-biased means no VRA

Here we go: from North to South (Full disclosure: I live in NorCal, and it is much better)

Northern California:



1st: No Incumbent-SWING DISTRICT: 51-46 Obama Blue.

This is what is the real NorCal.  Most rural, with lots of forests, the marijuana-growing Emerald Triangle and liberal Humboldt and Mendocino Counties combined with the conservative Sacramento Valley would give this to whichever party has the advantage that year and makes it an R+1 or R+0 district.  Redding is the major city, and if the representative hails from there, it’s likely they will be Republican, with Democrats being based on the coast.  An astounding (for California) 79% White.  Due to this replacing Garamendi’s district, I’ll say it’s R + .5

2nd: Wally Herger-R: 51-47 McCain Green.  I guess this district may be contested when Herger retires (he’s in his mid-60’s), but until then, he’s probably fine.  The college town of Chico, Herger’s base, and the Lake Tahoe resort area are the liberal parts, while the rural mountains and Sacramento Valley, including Yuba City, are the Republican strongholds.  77% White, this part of California just isn’t that diverse.

Sacramento Area:



3rd: Dan Lungren-R: 53-45 McCain. Purple

Yeah, Lungren doesn’t quite live in the district, but he’s close, and a carpet-bagger anyways (as are McClintock and Garamendi, not sure what’s up with Sacramento-area carpetbaggers).  He’ll be fine, with conservative Sacramento Suburbs of Folsom, Rocklin, and Roseville.  Also 77% White.  Lungren’s safety means R + 1.

4th: Tom McClintock-R: 52-47 Obama. SWING DISTRICT

Red

Elk Grove, a relatively liberal suburb, and more conservative unincorporated Sacramento County combine with some Sierra Country to create another moderate district.  McClintock will be up for a fight in 2012, and it could go either way.  66% White, 13% Hispanic.  Back to R + .5

5th: Doris Matsui-D: 70-28 Obama.  Yellow

Capital city of Sacramento, college town of Davis, plus some suburbs and conservative, rural Woodland.  Which way do you think this district will go?  Majority minorityMatsui’s happy here.  48% White, 22% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 10% Black.  Yup, 4 races at 10% or more.

North Bay Area:

6th: Mike Thompson-D: 67-31 Obama. Teal

Fairfield, Napa, Vallejo, Vacaville.  Vacaville is actually quite moderate.  The rest aren’t.  This district has very little of Thompson’s old territory, but it’s not biggie.  59% White, 18% Hispanic.

7th: Lynn Woolsey-D: 78-20 Obama. Gray

Easily the most liberal majority-white district in the nation.  63% White, 17% Hispanic.  Contains Santa Rosa, Petaluma, and upscale Marin County, along with minority-heavy Richmond (take that, VRA).  And yes, it’s connected by a bridge.  

10th: George Miller-D: 67-31 Obama. Pink

This district stays on one side of the bay, and yes, I know I’m not going in numerical order. Miller still lives here, and that means he’s safe.  63% White, 17% Hispanic, 10% Asian.

SF/Oakland:

8th: Nancy Pelosi-D: 85-13 Obama.  periwinkle.

A speaker who just got us health care reform deserves…nearly no change.  Actually, that’s fine with her, in this very liberal SF district.  46% White, 29% Asian, 13% Hispanic.

9th: Barbara Lee-D: 88-10 Obama.  light blue.

This Black leader gets nearly no change either, but her district was already the most liberal in the state, so it’s OK.  Having highly Black Oakland and college town Berkeley will do that for you.  35% White, 25% Black, 18% Asian, 18% Hispanic.  So diverse.

East Bay:

11th: Jerry McNerney: 65-33 Obama. light green.

McNerney just got a whole bunch safer, from a swing district to a Democratic one.  Back to R + 0.  See, redistricting doesn’t really change Northern California, so why can’t we un-gerrymander it?

The Peninsula:



12th: Jackie Speier: 74-24 Obama.  blue.

Again, little change in this liberal district. Fun fact: did you know it’s a majority minority district?  45% White, 27% Asian, 20% Hispanic.

Silicon Valley:

13th: Anna Eshoo: 72-26 Obama. reddish

My home district.  I’m gonna say Stark retires (his district will get moved) and Eshoo stays on.  She’s a great representative.  51% White (VRA will hate me), 24% Asian, 16% Hispanic.  This district’s per capita income probably will shrink a bit, too, with some of the East Bay areas.

14th: Mike Honda: 71-27 Obama.  ugly color.

And the VRA loses again.  This time, 50% White, 24% Asian, 20% Hispanic.  Yet, there is an Asian representative anyways, and he’s there to stay in West San Jose.  

San Jose:

15th: Zoe Lofgren: 67-32 Obama.  orange.

Yes, this district’s weird, but a lot of the Santa Clara County blocks are screwed up, so don’t blame me.  Lofgren’s safe, and the district’s Hispanic plurality, at 32%, with 31% White and 30% Asian.  East San Jose is the base.

Farr’s District:

16th: Sam Farr: 73-25 Obama. green.

I’m not sure how else to label Santa Cruz but the home of the white liberal: a college town with a beach and liberal marijuana laws, it’s why those conservatives hate California.  But this district also contains minority-heavy Monterey County, with Watsonville, Salinas, Gilroy (not in the county, technically), and other areas.  It’s still 52% White, but also 36% Hispanic.  Farr is safe, although he may retire soon.

Recession Central Valley:

17th: No Incumbent Representative-SWING: 54-44 Obama. Purple.

An open D+1 district.  Think it’ll be well-contested in 2012? So do I.  47% White and 30% Hispanic, with a surprisingly high 12% Asian for a Central Valley district, moderate Tracy, Manteca, and Stockton dominate, along with conservative Lodi and Lathrop.  Overall, I’d say it’s a toss-up district due to Hispanic turnout, although they may turn out for Obama if he succeeds with immigration reform.  This is the new Garamendi district, and so we’re up to R + .5 again.

18th: Dennis Cardoza: 51-48 Obama. yellow.

Blue Dog Cardoza is in for a tough fight as his district is no longer gerrymandered for a Hispanic. At 52% White and 35% Hispanic, Modesto and fast-growing Merced dominate, along with the smaller Turlock.  This toss-up means we’re now at R + 1.  Former Republican St. Sen. Leader Dave Cogdill could fight Cardoza, as could whoever replaces George Radanovich in CA-19 this year.

Fresno Area:

19th: Devin Nunes: 56-42 McCain. green.

This district is actually the only of the first 3 Valley districts to be majority-minority, at 48% White, and 43% Hispanic, but there is low turnout.  Centered in Visalia and Madera, Nunes, who is actually Portugese and not Hispanic, will be fine here.

20th: Jim Costa: 51-48 Obama. pink

Fresno has been known for being conservative, and Clovis even more so, but with the entire city in one district, we can see it is more toss-up.  And a toss-up this one will be, meaning the gains are now at R + 1.5.  44% White, 35% Hispanic, and 10% Asian.

More Valley:

21st: No Incumbent Representative: 51-47 Obama. maroon.

The everything-we-couldn’t pick up in the Santa Clara/Monterey County and Central Valley districts-district.  If I had to guess, I’d say anyone could win this district.  It contains farmland in the valley, Hispanic Hollister, Hanford, and Los Banos, and more white Paso Robles and Atascadero.  Overall, it’s 49% White and 41% Hispanic.  Due to this being Radanovich’s district, we’re at R + 1 again.

South Valley/Central Coast:



22nd: Kevin McCarthy: 56-42 McCain. brown.

This district is ugly; I’m sorry, a lot of it is the voting districts.  The partisan lean is also ugly, but McCarthy’s very conservative, and Bakersfield is a great place for Republicans, as is the smaller Taft. 46% White and 40% Hispanic.

23rd: Lois Capps: 56-42 Obama.  light blue.

Technically winnable by a Republican, but it’s a blue district.  Instead of Capps being confined to beach towns in one of the ugliest gerrymanders ever, she’s got all of liberal Santa Barbara County, some of the Valley (Tehachapi, California City), and coastal Ventura and Ojai.  She’ll win, but the DCCC will have to put some money in when she retires to keep the district. 61% White, 29% Hispanic

24th: Elton Gallegly: 55-44 Obama. purple.

Gallegly’s district just got a bit tougher, and he may retire, he’ll be 68 by Election Day 2012.  If not, it’s a toss-up, like his old district, so no change there.  Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, and Camarillo are all included here, with 56% White and 32% Hispanic.

25th: Buck McKeon: 50-48 Obama. rose.

McKeon’s district stays Republican in lean, although Obama won it.  Santa Clarita, Lancaster, and Palmdale, the last two desert cities on the other side of the mountains from Los Angeles, are the reasons L.A. County isn’t 85% Democratic like SF.  55% White, 28% Hispanic.  When McKeon retires, it may be winnable.

Los Angeles, Part 1:

26th: David Dreier: 61-37 Obama. gray

So, um, yeah, David Dreier is gone.  Taking out Cucamonga, adding in Pomona, in other words, un-gerrymandering.  Bye-bye, now at R + .5.  48% Hispanic, 28% White, and 16% Asian (many in Walnut).  Covina is also in this district.

27th: Brad Sherman: 66-32 Obama. bright green

Sherman doesn’t have anything to worry about, San Fernando Valley district means liberal and 48% Hispanic, 33% White, 11% Asian.

28th: Howard Berman: 72-27 Obama. pinkish.

I really like how these guys are both Jewish, liberal, from L.A., and their names rhyme.  Anyways Malibu and L.A. are in this district, and that’s all you need to know.  50% White, 35% Hispanic.

29th: Adam Schiff: 66-32 Obama.  greenish-gray.

Here we have Glendale, Pasadena, Burbank, and La Canada Flintridge, but nothing to worry about.  49% White, 26% Hispanic, 13% Asian.

L.A. Part 2:

30th: Henry Waxman: 79-19 Obama. salmon.

Beverly Hills, Hollywood, and Santa Monica.  58% White, 19% Hispanic, 11% Asian.  And Democratic.  Very Democratic.

31st: Xavier Becerra: 85-13 Obama.  yellow.

56% Hispanic, 18% Black, 14% Asian, only 9% White.  The least white district in California, I believe.  Becerra isn’t white, either, but he is most certainly safe.

32nd: Judy Chu: 77-20 Obama. orange.

Los Angeles, Monterey Park, Alhambra.  64% Hispanic, 21% Asian, and, yes, 10% White.  Told you it was more.

33rd: Maxine Waters: 87-12 Obama. dark blue.

Wow, the whites just keep growing.  49% Hispanic, 34% Black, and 11% White.  Inglewood and Los Angeles are here, which means so are the Lakers (and the Clippers).  As is Waters, as long as she wants.

L.A. Part 3:

34th: Lucille Roybal-Allard: 76-22 Obama. green.

Bell, Bellflower, South Gate, Downey, and a slight piece of Los Angeles make this 79% Hispanic and 10% White.  Which party do you think will win?

35th: Whoever replaces Watson or Jane Harman: 73-25 Obama. purple

38% Hispanic, 24% Black, 22% White, and 13% Asian.  Does the Blue Dog Jewish woman or the liberal new representative win?  I’ll let you decide…and yes, it was accidental that Harman gets knocked out of the House.

36th: Laura Richardson or Linda Sanchez: 60-38 Obama. orange.

OK, there are some conservative areas here, like Torrance, to some degree.  But half of Long Beach is here, and so is Lakewood.  Richardson, or, more likely, Sanchez, is fine in her 37% White, 35% Hispanic, 15% Asian district.

L.A. Part 4:

37th: Grace Napolitano: 59-39 Obama.  bright blue.

This district enters conservative Orange County, but not the areas needed to blunt a liberal district.  Half of Long Beach is in here, as is Norwalk, along with Seal Beach and Buena Park, as are members of a 39% White, 34% Hispanic, 18% Asian district.

40th: Loretta Sanchez: 49-49 McCain.  maroon.

I have heard Sanchez is a rising star in the party; this is her test.  Win a Republican district containing Anaheim, Garden Grove, Westminster, and Fountain Valley, and maybe you could be Senator someday.  40% Hispanic, 33% White, 22% Asian. In the meantime, we’re back to R + 1.5.

L.A. Part 5:

38th: No Incumbent Representative: 67-31 Obama. teal.

Harman’s district ends up here, and so there is no partisan change, but there will be a new representative in this Whittier and Pico Rivera based district.  65% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 15% White.

39th: Ed Royce: 52-46 McCain. pale yellow.

A Republican district, the first in a while, and Royce is all good in Diamond Bar, Fullerton, Nixon’s home of Yorba Linda, and Orange.  48% White, 28% Hispanic, 19% Asian.

Orange County:

41st: John Campbell: 55-43 Obama. gray.

The very conservative Campbell may have some trouble here, to say the least, so we’re back to R + 1, as this is only a swing district.  Liberal Irvine, combined with Tustin and Santa Ana, make this 43% Hispanic, 38% White, and 14% Asian, along with maybe a Democratic pickup.

42nd: Dana Rohrabacher: 51-47 McCain. green.

Containing everything with the word beach in it: Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, etc, along with San Juan Capistrano, Rohrabacher is, sadly, safe here.  73% White, 16% Hispanic may explain the reason why.

Inland Empire:

43rd: Gary Miller: 54-45 Obama. pink.

Miller moving to a swing district means only R + .5.  He may lose here, but he may do OK in Rancho Cucamonga, Upland, Chino, and Ontario, the West End of the Inland Empire.  42% Hispanic, 39% White.

44th: Joe Baca: 64-34 Obama. magenta.

Baca is fine in a majority (50%) Hispanic district, along with 29% White and 13% Black.  San Bernardino, Rialto, Highland, and Colton are here.

46th: Ken Calvert: 53-45 Obama. salmon.

Calvert is a slight bit more vulnerable now, and may be gone in 2012, as he has some slight corruption issues in Riverside.  Corona and very red Norco make up the rest of the district, which is 46% White and 38% Hispanic.

Mojave/Coachella:

45th: Jerry Lewis: 55-43 McCain. blue.

Lewis is lucky enough to get a safe Inland Empire/Mojave district, with conservative Redlands and Yucaipa, along with Hesperia and Victorville and some mountains and desert in the east, plus Yucca Valley, Twentynine Palms, etc.  63% White, 24% Hispanic.

47th: Mary Bono Mack: 50-48 Obama. pink.

A slight bit safer, but still swing.  However, Mack is a moderate, and she’ll be fine in this district.  It contains Palm Springs, Indio, Hemet, and Coachella and stretches to Arizona.  53% White and 39% Hispanic.

Inland Empire 2:

48th: No Incumbent Representative: 49-49 McCain.  orange.

Linda Sanchez’s district had to go somewhere, so here it is, bringing us to R + 1.5.  A Republican should win here.  Moreno Valley, Lake Elsinore, Temecula.  53% White, 30% Hispanic.

49th: Darrell Issa and Brian Bilbray: 53-45 McCain.

Issa’s not retiring, so Bilbray probably will.  This district has Carlsbad, Oceanside, and Vista, along with Mission Viejo, and is 65% White and only 22% Hispanic.

San Diego:

50th: Susan Davis.  56-42 Obama.  pale blue.

So Susan Davis doesn’t have the last district in the state anymore.  But this district is swing, in an open seat race at least, so we’re at R + 2.  This part of San Diego is much more white, with 68%, 15% Asian, and only 11% Hispanic, amazing for how close to the border it is.

51st: Duncan Hunter.  52-46 McCain. brown.

Hunter gets the Republican areas of the border area.  Escondido, Encinitas, Poway, unincorporated San Diego County, and the more Democratic Imperial Valley.  56% White, 35% Hispanic.

52nd: Bob Filner.  55-44 Obama. forest green.

R + 2.5 now.  Filner’s also in a swing district, but he’s safe while he stays in Chula Vista and El Cajon.  46% White, 36% Hispanic.

53rd: No Incumbent Representative: 70-28 Obama. white.

White may be the color of the district, but the representative probably won’t be, and since it’s Bilbray’s district shifted, we’re at R + 1.5 for our total from fair redistricting.  36% Hispanic, 33% White, 13% Asian, and 13% Black.  

So there you go.  After 2012:

Retiring or losing:

John Garamendi-D

Pete Stark-D

David Dreier-R

Jane Harman-D

Laura Richardson-D

Brian Bilbray-R

Many others to toss-up, and seats may change hands in California (1 seat changed in 159 races over 3 years; CA-11 R to D in 06)

Comment if you have input.