Wow, this would be explosive:
House Democrats are considering backing former Rep. Ed Case in Hawaii’s competitive winner-take-all special election next month, a move that would run counter to the endorsements of the Aloha State’s two Senators.
Several sources with knowledge of the situation said that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is inclined to support Case over state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who has the support of Hawaii Democratic Sens. Daniel K. Inouye and Daniel K. Akaka, organized labor and EMILY’s List.
CQ doesn’t really get into the “why,” except to say:
But according to sources familiar with the committee’s considerations, national Democrats see several weaknesses in Hanabusa’s candidacy stemming mostly from her tenure in the state Legislature.
Hanabusa’s second campaign spot of the cycle, for example, boasted she “cut legislative salaries,” but she was maligned in the press last week for taking a pay raise while she made the cut.
That’s it? Really? Don’t get me wrong – the ad flub is pretty ugly. And many people don’t have especially warm feeling towards state legislatures these days. But not only does Hanabusa have the support of pretty much the entire political establishment in Hawaii, she’s also a much stronger fundraiser than Case. Indeed, she’s expected to report $400K raised in Q1, while Case hasn’t offered an estimate and very likely raised less. Then of course there’s also the fact that supporting the conservative Case in a district this blue would be a monster fuck-you to progressives. (Yes, favorite son Barack Obama inflated the vote totals in his home state, but this was a D+7 district just based on the Gore & Kerry results.)
Now, I appreciate that the unusual nature of this all-party jungle election might force the DCCC to make some unusual choices here. And perhaps they have polling showing some tough negatives for Hanabusa. But backing Case would nonetheless be a very divisive move which could very well backfire, seeing as it could sour the race between the two Democrats even further. (Just think about all the bad blood there’s been in GOP races where the Republican establishment picks a favorite.) I have a sinking feeling in my stomach about how this one will play out.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Dem, but that rating could definitely change.
From what I’ve generally seen, Chris Van Hollen has been a pretty competent DCCC chair. This makes me wonder exactly who the sources are who say this (that is to say, it could just be that a couple of Case’s old colleagues are trying to prop him up by making it appear that the DCCC really is doing this).
Either way, bah!
is the state legislature in Hawaii. It can’t be as bad as the circus we call the California state legislature here right?
This is almost exactly like what happened in NY-23.
That any DCCC efforts to intervene in this special election will backfire pretty harshly. Hawaii has a pretty tight relationship with Alaska for the reason that they are both non-contiguous members of the United States, and have developed a distrustful attitude toward the mainland in some respects.
I’ve always theorized that one of the reasons why Don Young survived (and why Ted Stevens almost survived) in 2008 was the Democratic party committee’s dominance of the airwaves and a possible local backlash to outside interference. If the DCCC were to do something similar here by intervening on Case’s behalf, I think the local response could be pretty fierce.
That said, if the party committee just stays neutral and goes hard-negative on Djou, it’s possible that a backlash could favor Djou himself!
is praying for this to be true.
Obviously, I would want to know if this was legitimately sourced or just a couple of random dudes with an agenda, but I have a sinking feeling that we’re about to see a Democratic committee make exactly the same mistake they made in Massachusetts a few months ago that led to Scott Brown being elected. Same variables – dark blue state, strong GOP candidate, and a weak, overly conservative Democrat with high statewide negatives taking the race for granted after the establishment crowded out the progressive in the primary. (Or, alternately, Hanabusa survives the primary, the DCCC has egg on its face, everyone knows Hanabusa’s flaws, and the same result happens.)
This falls squarely into the “you’ve got to be f-ing kidding me” file. Seriously, I think Beltway Democrats may be addicted to failure. There’s no way that Djou doesn’t benefit from this if it’s for real.
Right now, I’m just keeping my fingers crossed that it isn’t, but I believe that it is. Only national Democrats can so adeptly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
…they have well-done polling, from more than once, that shows Case actually is mopping up the field against Hanabusa, and that she’s threatening only to throw the election to Djou, not to have any chance to win herself.
But absent that kind of unambiguous data, the DCCC would be stupid to play in the primary, for all the reasons DavidNYC cites. You don’t play in a primary unless you have a runaway frontrunner.
The DCCC has been very smart the past couple cycles, so I’m reluctant to bash them over this……especially if nothing comes to pass and they don’t actually play here. But no doubt based on all the public information we have on this primary, it would be a head-scratcher for the DCCC to back Case.
agree with David 110% on this one. I always thought CVH was smart, granted he’s no Rambo but not stupid at the same time. If this was an R+5 district than I wouldn’t really care, but Obama has a 70% approval in Hawaii, and we don’t need a Joe Lieberman style (Case was close to Lieberman and endorsed him when he went independent) blue dog here. It’s not that I dislike blue dogs, just ones from safe blue district. I also don’t think this helps Case a whole lot anyway. The smart political thing to do is stay out of the race at all cost. Most progressives support Hanabusa and Case is getting many republicans supporting him. However if Case is seen as the Democratic establishment candidate I couldn’t see any republican voting for him. This could actually help Hanabusa in way, because being the establishment candidate isn’t always the best thing in the world. If we lose this election CVH and others should be held accountable for it. If we lose Mass and the Presidents home district then it looks really bad for team blue, hell it is really bad for team blue.
FWIW, Case is a cousin of AOL founder Steve Case.
DCCC has someone over there who is either budies of Ed Case or who needs to keep their damn mouths shut. Endorsing in the primary would be stupid and out of character.
gotten more involved w/ the Hanabusa campaign? Just wondering. This is a clear cut case of a better Dem who can win in the district. I think the DCCC just wants one Dem candidate so they don’t split the vote and let Djou to slip in.
Hanabusa had been slow in getting up and running, despite all the help that she’s getting from Inouye & Akaka (but mostly Inouye)…
to the Hanabusa campaign to get their act together from the DCCC. Kind of a shot-across-the-bow message. Her campaign so far has really been less than wonderful.
It just seems that Case is wanting the job a lot more than she does. I hope she’s not feeling a sense Coakley-type entitlement what with all her endorsements. I hope I’m wrong.
Stupid election law makes it so. They will only do this if they have polling showing Case and Djou battling it out for first and Hanabusa acting as spoiler. In that case I would support such action. Which is worse – Case wins or Djou wins to give the GOP a pickup on Obama’s home turf? Yes, they’ll win it back in November but by then the damage will have been done. To momentum, to fundraising and maybe even some late retirements. I said when Abercrombie quit that maybe Case should be left to win the special while Hanabusa concentrated on winning the primary. Maybe that is an option.
A lot of people refuse to fund the party committees these days. Openly coming outin favour of a conservadem over a presumably electable progressive just seems like a great way to accentuate this trend.
I just don’t see the upside for the DCCC here.
http://www.honoluluadvertiser….
Hanabusa could run an ad saying it is time to end backroom deals by D.C. consultants and to let the voters of the 1st district decide this election.
Jan 19 2010 – http://www.starbulletin.com/ne…
They did not poll a 3-way – and this poll is 3 months old – so take the results from Jan with at least 1 grain of salt.
Case-Djou-Undecided
52-21-27
Hanubasa-Djou-Undecided
43-36-21
Based on these grain of salt numbers –
Let’s make some (very) loose assumptions –
1) Djou’s current support in the 3 way is inbetween the two numbers, i.e. 28%
2) Undecided is inbetween the two numbers, i.e. 24$
That leaves 52% as for the remaining 2 Ds. Assume that’s split per the proportions listed, that would lead to a
Case = 29%
Hanubasa = 23%
3) Split the undecideds in proportion to the calculated numbers, i.e.:
Case = 38%
Djou = 36%
Hanubasa = 29%
Two additional assumptions:
A) I’m guessing HI voters believe Djou has a decent shot at this point, so his support may be closer to the higher number.
B) I’m guessing that voters in this election will lean more towards activists, so Case’s numbers may be lower. (Obviously, with a vote-by-mail scenario, that’s a very shaky assumption.)
So based on these calculations and assumptions, Djou may be currently leading the race.
until I see more tangible evidence. Everything I have seen indicates to me Hanabusa is in control of this race, with Case in a clear second place, and Djou way back in third splitting conservative and moderate voters with Case.
I hate this anonymous sources shit. Case has pissed off establishment Dems and progressive Dems, what little base he has left in the islands is going to be splitting their votes with Djou. I don’t see how Hanabusa fails to win this, and easily at that. I also don’t see how Djou breaks 30% with Case in the mix.