CA-Gov, CA-Sen: County Baselines

Here is my attempt at estimating the county baselines to see the absolute minimum we can pull in the counties to be able to break 50% statewide in California. Based on trends that I’ve pointed out many times over, close races in California are likely to get rarer and rarer, so I decided that now would be my best chance at showing what a close race in California could look like. Third parties usually pull between 3 and 5% of the vote, so I gave 4% to the third parties.

County 2008 # voters % of 2008 vote 2008% Pres. Needed to reach 50%
State
13,743,177
100.0%
61/37
50/46
Los Angeles
3,368,057
24.5%
69/29
58/38
San Diego
1,245,947
9.1%
54/44
43/53
Orange
1,167,657
8.5%
50/48
57/39
Santa Clara
678,033
4.9%
69/29
58/38
Riverside
657,005
4.8%
50/48
39/57
Alameda
628,545
4.6%
79/19
68/28
San Bernardino
616,320
4.5%
52/46
41/55
Sacramento
546,660
4.0%
58/39
47/48
Contra Costa
456,876
3.3%
68/30
57/39
San Francisco
388,112
2.8%
84/14
73/23
Ventura
343,690
2.5%
55/43
44/52
San Mateo
307,350
2.2%
73/25
62/34
Fresno
275,554
2.0%
50/48
39/57
Kern
235,854
1.7%
40/58
29/67
Sonoma
231,817
1.7%
74/24
63/33
San Joaquin
212,214
1.5%
54/44
43/53
Santa Barbara
176,562
1.3%
60/37
49/46
Placer
175,215
1.3%
43/54
32/63
Stanislaus
162,941
1.2%
50/48
39/57
Solano
162,638
1.2%
63/35
52/44
Marin
141,321
1.0%
78/20
67/29
Monterey
131,381
1.0%
68/30
57/39
Santa Cruz
128,555
0.9%
77/20
66/29
Tulare
106,551
0.8%
41/57
30/66
Butte
99,392
0.7%
50/47
39/56
El Dorado
93,890
0.7%
44/54
33/63
Shasta
81,378
0.6%
36/62
25/71
Yolo
80,674
0.6%
67/31
56/40
San Luis Obispo
68,424
0.5%
51/46
40/55
Merced
64,688
0.5%
53/45
42/54
Humboldt
64,358
0.5%
62/34
51/43
Napa
60,366
0.4%
65/33
54/42
Nevada
56,177
0.4%
51/46
40/55
Madera
43,032
0.3%
42/56
31/65
Mendocino
40,580
0.3%
69/27
58/36
Imperial
39,823
0.3%
62/36
51/45
Kings
35,775
0.3%
42/56
31/65
Sutter
33,337
0.2%
41/57
30/66
Tuolumne
27,499
0.2%
42/55
31/64
Lake
25,863
0.2%
58/39
47/48
Tehama
24,803
0.2%
36/60
25/69
Calaveras
23,588
0.2%
42/55
31/64
Siskiyou
21,723
0.2%
43/53
32/62
Yuba
21,681
0.2%
41/56
30/65
San Benito
19,982
0.1%
60/38
49/47
Amador
19,006
0.1%
41/56
30/65
Lassen
11,510
0.1%
31/65
20/74
Plumas
11,169
0.1%
43/55
32/64
Glenn
10,053
0.1%
38/60
27/69
Mariposa
9,756
0.1%
42/55
31/64
Del Norte
9,684
0.1%
45/52
34/61
Inyo
8,625
0.1%
44/53
33/62
Colusa
6,532
0.0%
40/58
29/67
Trinity
6,482
0.0%
50/46
39/55
Mono
5,621
0.0%
56/42
45/51
Modoc
4,505
0.0%
30/67
19/76
Sierra
2,012
0.0%
37/58
26/67
Alpine
697
0.0%
61/36
50/45

Here’s a visual aid, comparing the expected results in a close race in California with the 2008 results:

Hypothetical close race

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2008

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6 thoughts on “CA-Gov, CA-Sen: County Baselines”

  1. This depends on a uniform swing, which while not unreasonable as an approximation, makes me wonder how we can do better. For instance, a heavily McCain county has fewer Democratic voters to swing, and so would probably have a smaller swing in a 50/50 election. This is most obvious in a hypothetical boundary situation: if there was a 95/5 McCain county in California, the baseline would be negative votes for the Democrat, a clear impossibility. It can similarly be reasoned that a close-to-boundary county would not also have a uniform swing: a 88/12 McCain county is not going to be as likely to vote 99% Republican as a 50/50 McCain district is to vote 61%.  

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